Inconvenient data brushed aside: Congress slams govt after World Bank says extreme poverty in India declined
The 2022-23 Consumption Expenditure Survey, conducted after an 11-year gap, came with a revised methodology -- making direct comparisons with the UPA-era data appear favourable, but statistically invalid, Khera said.
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Time of India
5 hours ago
- Time of India
International mutual funds offer 14% average return in 1 year. Are global markets the new hotspot?
International mutual funds have delivered an average return of 14.5% over the past year, ranking second among all fund categories. Market experts attribute this performance to a strong rally in U.S. tech stocks, a rebound in Chinese equities, and improved investor sentiment across European markets. 'A softer dollar, easing inflation, and a global shift toward rate cuts—already initiated by some central banks—have supported risk assets. While some volatility may persist, the broader orientation is supportive, making this a good time to start SIPs/STPs rather than wait for a better entry,' Sagar Shinde, VP of Research at Fisdom, shared with ETMutualFunds. Also Read | Explained: How thoughtful asset allocation enhances mutual fund performance? Best MF to invest Looking for the best mutual funds to invest? Here are our recommendations. View Details » Another expert, comparing the returns of international mutual funds with the Nifty50 over the past year and month, noted that these returns are significantly influenced by global geopolitical events, such as Trump-era tariffs, speculation around the upcoming U.S. elections, and shifting trade agreements, making international funds more event-driven and volatile. 'Over the long term, Indian markets are much more consistent compared to international funds, which shows that domestic funds have higher return potential with a wide range of categories to pick from,' Chirag Muni, Executive Director, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, shared with ETMutualFunds. Live Events According to Chirag, if we look at the long-term risk adjusted returns of global markets, the U.S. and Indian markets have shown better efficiency compared to China, Hong Kong and Japan and in recent months, international markets have seen sharp, event-driven rallies like China's stimulus-led surge or U.S. trade-related volatility, but these are often short-lived. There were 66 international funds which have marked their presence in the last year, and out of these, 44 gave double-digit returns, 21 gave single-digit returns, and one gave a negative return. DSP World Gold FoF offered the highest return of 70.47% in the same period. Mirae Asset Hang Seng TECH ETF FoF and Mirae Asset NYSE FANG+ETF FoF gave 52.06% and 41.06% returns, respectively, in the said period. PGIM India Global Equity Opp FoF gave the lowest single-digit return of around 0.07% in the mentioned period. Mirae Asset Global Electric & Autonomous Vehicles Equity Passive FOF lost 1.70% in the same period. After reviewing the performance of international funds, Shinde suggests a 10–15% allocation for optimal diversification. He recommends keeping the U.S. as the core exposure, citing its innovation and strong earnings, while viewing China as a tactical or contrarian bet due to its low valuations and recent policy support. Also Read | Up 29% in 5 months! Should you invest or avoid gold mutual funds? 'These funds are best used for long-term allocation (5+ years). SIPs/STPs are more prudent in the current environment, helping average out market and currency volatility better than lump sum investing,' he adds. While refraining investors from investing in international funds and advising to shift focus on a well-diversified mix of domestic equity funds across categories and sectors, Chirag adds that if one looks for global diversification in the portfolio can explore only up to 5 -10% of the overall portfolio. 'International funds can offer exposure to global opportunities, but given its track record for volatility and uneven performance across global markets, investors are advised not to rely heavily on them. It is more suitable to do an SIP in diversified domestic equity funds over the long term, as they provide stronger long-term growth and better risk-adjusted returns. Trying to time global markets or chase short-term rallies is not advisable, as such moves are often driven by unpredictable events and can lead to poor investment outcomes,' Chirag said. Over the last three months, international funds have delivered an average return of 5.61%, and 8.58% over the past six months. DSP World Gold FoF topped the charts across both timeframes. Over the past three years, the best-performing economies included the US, Taiwan, and Nasdaq , while Greater China and some US-focused funds lagged during the same period. Post these funds offering single-digit average return in the short-term, Shinde mentions that the outlook for international funds remains constructive but nuanced and as several central banks—especially in Europe and emerging markets—have already begun their rate-cutting cycles, which supports global liquidity and risk assets. 'At the same time, global equities benefit from resilient growth, improving earnings, and attractive valuations outside the US. However, headwinds like rising trade tensions, tariffs, and geopolitical risks could cause intermittent volatility. Overall, international funds remain a valuable long-term diversification tool, with opportunities across the US, China, and selective global themes,' Shinde adds. While sharing India's strong economic outlook, IMF projections, RBI rate cut, and with a stable fiscal deficit projected at 4.4% for FY26 and strong tax revenues, macro fundamentals remain solid, Chirag advises investors not to go for international funds. Also Read | 14 equity mutual funds offer over 30% CAGR in 3 years. Are there any included in your portfolio? International funds invest across a range of geographies, commodities, and global indices. Markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, the broader US economy, and Taiwan delivered strong performance, while regions such as Hang Seng and Greater China underperformed. Ultimately, a fund's returns hinge on the specific geography it's exposed to. That means you should pay extra attention to your investments in international funds. Pay extra attention to which geography or indices you are investing in. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@ alongwith your age, risk profile, and twitter handle.
Economic Times
6 hours ago
- Economic Times
International mutual funds offer 14% average return in 1 year. Are global markets the new hotspot?
International funds invest across a range of geographies, commodities, and global indices. International mutual funds have delivered an average return of 14.5% over the past year, ranking second among all fund categories. Market experts attribute this performance to a strong rally in U.S. tech stocks, a rebound in Chinese equities, and improved investor sentiment across European markets. 'A softer dollar, easing inflation, and a global shift toward rate cuts—already initiated by some central banks—have supported risk assets. While some volatility may persist, the broader orientation is supportive, making this a good time to start SIPs/STPs rather than wait for a better entry,' Sagar Shinde, VP of Research at Fisdom, shared with ETMutualFunds. Also Read | Explained: How thoughtful asset allocation enhances mutual fund performance? Another expert, comparing the returns of international mutual funds with the Nifty50 over the past year and month, noted that these returns are significantly influenced by global geopolitical events, such as Trump-era tariffs, speculation around the upcoming U.S. elections, and shifting trade agreements, making international funds more event-driven and volatile.'Over the long term, Indian markets are much more consistent compared to international funds, which shows that domestic funds have higher return potential with a wide range of categories to pick from,' Chirag Muni, Executive Director, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, shared with ETMutualFunds. According to Chirag, if we look at the long-term risk adjusted returns of global markets, the U.S. and Indian markets have shown better efficiency compared to China, Hong Kong and Japan and in recent months, international markets have seen sharp, event-driven rallies like China's stimulus-led surge or U.S. trade-related volatility, but these are often were 66 international funds which have marked their presence in the last year, and out of these, 44 gave double-digit returns, 21 gave single-digit returns, and one gave a negative return. DSP World Gold FoF offered the highest return of 70.47% in the same period. Mirae Asset Hang Seng TECH ETF FoF and Mirae Asset NYSE FANG+ETF FoF gave 52.06% and 41.06% returns, respectively, in the said period. PGIM India Global Equity Opp FoF gave the lowest single-digit return of around 0.07% in the mentioned period. Mirae Asset Global Electric & Autonomous Vehicles Equity Passive FOF lost 1.70% in the same reviewing the performance of international funds, Shinde suggests a 10–15% allocation for optimal diversification. He recommends keeping the U.S. as the core exposure, citing its innovation and strong earnings, while viewing China as a tactical or contrarian bet due to its low valuations and recent policy support. Also Read | Up 29% in 5 months! Should you invest or avoid gold mutual funds? 'These funds are best used for long-term allocation (5+ years). SIPs/STPs are more prudent in the current environment, helping average out market and currency volatility better than lump sum investing,' he refraining investors from investing in international funds and advising to shift focus on a well-diversified mix of domestic equity funds across categories and sectors, Chirag adds that if one looks for global diversification in the portfolio can explore only up to 5 -10% of the overall portfolio.'International funds can offer exposure to global opportunities, but given its track record for volatility and uneven performance across global markets, investors are advised not to rely heavily on them. It is more suitable to do an SIP in diversified domestic equity funds over the long term, as they provide stronger long-term growth and better risk-adjusted returns. Trying to time global markets or chase short-term rallies is not advisable, as such moves are often driven by unpredictable events and can lead to poor investment outcomes,' Chirag the last three months, international funds have delivered an average return of 5.61%, and 8.58% over the past six months. DSP World Gold FoF topped the charts across both timeframes. Over the past three years, the best-performing economies included the US, Taiwan, and Nasdaq, while Greater China and some US-focused funds lagged during the same period. Post these funds offering single-digit average return in the short-term, Shinde mentions that the outlook for international funds remains constructive but nuanced and as several central banks—especially in Europe and emerging markets—have already begun their rate-cutting cycles, which supports global liquidity and risk assets. 'At the same time, global equities benefit from resilient growth, improving earnings, and attractive valuations outside the US. However, headwinds like rising trade tensions, tariffs, and geopolitical risks could cause intermittent volatility. Overall, international funds remain a valuable long-term diversification tool, with opportunities across the US, China, and selective global themes,' Shinde sharing India's strong economic outlook, IMF projections, RBI rate cut, and with a stable fiscal deficit projected at 4.4% for FY26 and strong tax revenues, macro fundamentals remain solid, Chirag advises investors not to go for international funds. Also Read | 14 equity mutual funds offer over 30% CAGR in 3 years. Are there any included in your portfolio? International funds invest across a range of geographies, commodities, and global indices. Markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, the broader US economy, and Taiwan delivered strong performance, while regions such as Hang Seng and Greater China underperformed. Ultimately, a fund's returns hinge on the specific geography it's exposed means you should pay extra attention to your investments in international funds. Pay extra attention to which geography or indices you are investing in. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@ alongwith your age, risk profile, and twitter handle.
Indian Express
7 hours ago
- Indian Express
With poverty levels now at historic lows, a need to revisit food and fertiliser subsidies
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi completes 11 years in office, it's time for a stocktaking of his government's achievements at the macro level, and a framing of the challenges that lie ahead. For comparison, we also look at the UPA government's record from 2004 to 2014. In 2014, when PM Modi assumed office, India's nominal GDP stood at $2.04 trillion, up from $709 billion in 2004 when the UPA came to power. This was a jump of 2.8 times in 10 years. This year, India's economy is likely to be $4.19 trillion – it has almost doubled in 11 years. India is poised to become the fourth-largest economy globally, just behind the US ($30.5 trillion), China ($19.2 trillion) and Germany ($4.74 trillion). Yet, the nominal GDP in US dollars tells only a part of the story. A more appropriate criterion to measure the economic welfare of people will be to look at GDP and per capita income in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms — what a US dollar can buy in a country. In PPP terms, India's progress has been remarkable: From $2.75 trillion in 2004 to $6.45 trillion in 2014, and soaring to $17.65 trillion in 2025. This positions India as the world's third-largest economy in PPP terms, behind China ($40.72 trillion) and the US ($30.51 trillion). However, national aggregates can obscure individual well-being. Evaluating people's welfare and quality of life requires measuring per capita income in PPP terms. India's per capita income (in PPP terms) rose from $2,424.2 in 2004 to $4,935.5 in 2014 and now stands at $12,131.8 in 2025. This improvement corresponds with India's improved global ranking on this criteria —from 181st in 2004, to 166th in 2014, and 149th in 2025. However, despite this progress, India still ranks lowest among G20 countries in both per capita GDP ($2,878) and PPP terms ($12,131.8). China's per capita income (in PPP) stands at $28,978. The US leads with $89,105. Closer home, India trails even Sri Lanka ($14,970) and Bhutan ($17,735), though it remains ahead of Pakistan ($6,950.5) and Bangladesh ($10,261.1) in 2025 (IMF). Nevertheless, the macroeconomic milestones are indeed impressive and India needs to stay the course. But there is always one question associated with such macro trends: How far is this growth inclusive? The Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, has shown only modest shifts over the past two decades. In 2004, it was 0.34, in 2014 it edged up slightly to 0.35 and dropped to 0.33 in 2021, indicating moderate inequality in India, according to the World Bank. For inclusive growth, the performance of agriculture — employing the largest share of the workforce (46.1 per cent in 2023–24, according to PLFS) — is crucial. Despite consecutive droughts in 2014–15 and 2015–16, agriculture GDP under the Modi government grew at an average annual rate of 4 per cent (FY15–FY25), surpassing the 3.5 per cent (FY05–FY14) growth under the UPA tenure — which also witnessed a major drought in 2009–10. On the welfare front, the Modi government has spent a lot of resources to uplift the poor and farming community — this includes almost-free staples, rice or wheat, subsidised housing, and supporting farmers with the PM-KISAN direct income support scheme, and a near freeze on urea prices. All this has led to a sharp reduction in extreme poverty (head count ratio) at $3 per day (2021 PPP) — from 27.1 per cent in 2011 to just 5.3 per cent in 2022. The 80 per cent drop marks one of the fastest and most significant fall in poverty that India has achieved in any period since 1977. Even when measured against the higher poverty line threshold of $4.20/day for low middle-income countries, poverty had dropped from 57.7 per cent in 2011 to 23.9 per cent by 2022, representing a steep 60 per cent decline in just a decade (see infographics). This unprecedented acceleration in poverty reduction is one of the biggest achievements of the Modi government on the economic front. With poverty levels now at historic lows, there may be a need to revisit some of the major policies to plug loopholes and promote efficiency and sustainability. We look at food and fertiliser subsidies, as they claim the largest resources in the agri-food space and yet give sub-optimal results. The food subsidy budget for FY26 is slated to be Rs 2.03 lakh crore. India is giving free food (rice or wheat, 5kg/person/month) to more than 800 million people. With extreme poverty falling to just 5.3 per cent, there is a need to rationalise this food subsidy by giving beneficiaries food coupons (digital wallet) to buy nutritious food — pulses, milk, eggs — from designated stores. The value of food coupons for the bottom, say 15 per cent of the population, could be Rs 700/family/month, and this amount can come down to Rs 500/family/month based on the income of the identified beneficiaries. This will help plug leakages, diversify diets, promote nutrition, and diversify the production basket. Similar rationalisation is needed for fertiliser subsidy, which is slated to claim another Rs 1.56 lakh crore in FY26. This can be done by giving fertiliser coupons to farmers and deregulating the prices of fertiliser products. Farmers can use these coupons to buy chemical fertilisers or bio-fertilisers or do natural farming. The imbalanced use of N, P, and K can be corrected, leakages plugged and innovations in products and practices promoted, only if the government deregulates this sector. This task is overdue, and if the Modi government can do it now, it will help streamline the agri-food sector to a large extent. The Modi government can reap rich dividends in terms of saving financial resources, higher efficiency in the use of fertilisers, less dependence on imports, and less environmental degradation, especially of soil, water and air. The government would need to identify tenant farmers. The task also requires triangulation of several sets of data, and communicating with farmers in advance and earning their trust. This is a political exercise, which must precede policy change. No one else is a better communicator in the political sphere today than the Prime Minister himself. Gulati is Distinguished Professor and Juneja is a Research Fellow at ICRIER. Views are personal
