Why had Wrexham's defence suddenly become so leaky? And is it fixed?
A welcome step in the right direction after a midweek aberration or merely taking advantage of Mansfield Town's status as League One's worst team on recent form?
Only time will tell. But for Wrexham, it was a welcome three points as Phil Parkinson's side gave their automatic promotion hopes a timely boost with a deserved 2-1 victory.
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Max Cleworth's second-half winner helped repair much of Tuesday's damage when nearly all of Wrexham's promotion rivals gained ground as they lost at home to in-form Leyton Orient.
Now, the gap to second-placed Wycombe Wanderers and that automatic promotion spot stands at three points, while nearest rivals Stockport County are four points behind in fourth, having played a game more.
Perhaps the most encouraging aspect on Sunday, however, was the control exerted by Parkinson's side, especially in a midfield that had to overcome the loss of Andy Cannon to a serious-looking knee injury in the first half.
This solid base provided by the energy of Ollie Rathbone and George Dobson helped the defence put in one of their more polished collective displays, certainly since Cambridge United's surprise 2-2 draw at the SToK Cae Ras on December 14 heralded a notable drop-off in form.
Up to then, Wrexham had by far the most miserly defence in League One after conceding just 11 goals in 19 league games — five better than Birmingham City and Huddersfield Town. This run also included a phenomenal 12 clean sheets.
Contrast that stingy record with keeping just two clean sheets in the subsequent 13 games, during which 17 goals have been conceded. Across the same period, Birmingham have let in just three goals and Orient and Wycombe have let in 10 apiece, while another seven clubs boast a better defensive record than Wrexham.
The graph offers a possible reason for this unwelcome swing. Featuring rolling expected goals against (xGA) versus actual goals conceded over that same period, it shows us Wrexham overperformed on the defensive front in the early months of this season (blue).
Certainly, the quality of chances created by the opposition suggests they should have scored more. That they didn't can be put down to a variety of reasons, including good goalkeeping (Arthur Okonkwo was in excellent form until breaking his wrist in early November), good defending or simply good fortune.
As the above shows, things have dipped in recent weeks, with Wrexham now conceding more than their xGA suggests should be the case (red). Again, this can be put down to a variety of factors, including how Okonkwo's form dipped sufficiently to be briefly taken out of the spotlight in the league by Phil Parkinson and replaced by veteran Mark Howard.
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The form of those whose job is to protect the goalkeeper has also fluctuated in recent weeks, with Eoghan O'Connell being dropped in the wake of poor displays at Barnsley and Shrewsbury Town. He was replaced last month by Dan Scarr, who then lasted just two games before coming back out of the side as O'Connell was restored.
Lewis Brunt returned from injury at Crawley on February 1 after missing five games but missed out at Mansfield following a poor display on Tuesday, while even Cleworth, surely a leading contender for Player of the Year, has had his moments lately.
The plus for Wrexham comes via the old adage 'form is temporary but class is permanent', with O'Connell having featured in 11 of those 12 clean sheets in the league this season and Cleworth in 10.
Even allowing for the relative lack of clean sheets lately, Wrexham are still substantially over-achieving defensively with an xGA of 32.2 this season going into the Mansfield victory comparing favourably with the actual 25 goals conceded.
Wrexham were vulnerable down their right over Christmas, with six out of seven goals coming from that area. They largely plugged that gap only for another one to open up.
There were also two corners recently that led directly to either Okonkwo or Howard picking the ball out of the net.
No goalkeeper in the world would have stopped Bradley Ibrahim's 25-yard screamer for Crawley earlier this month. Or, as Parkinson put it afterwards: 'The lad won't hit another goal like that in his career.'
Also worth considering amid the frustration of this increase in goals conceded is the rolling 10-game xG (for and against), shown below, which tracks the quality of chances being created at both ends of the pitch.
This reveals Wrexham have still been creating more than the opposition, suggesting there wasn't a lot wrong and that an upturn in individual form, as happened at Mansfield with the back three, will bring the necessary results to stay in the promotion hunt.
Sunday was a step in the right direction, even allowing for how Ryan Longman lost Macdonald for the equaliser after Keanu Baccus and Jordan Bowery had found it far too easy moments earlier to open up the visitors down the left.
There was also a big let-off in first-half stoppage time after Macdonald again got away from Longman to hit a shot that Okonkwo initially spilt before pouncing on the bouncing ball.
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Other than that, though, Wrexham were rarely troubled, with Seb Revan — like Longman starting his first league game in more than a month after Parkinson freshened up at wing-back — growing into the game, while Tom O'Connor slotted in well on his first league start since last month's Stevenage loss.
Cleworth could also be hugely pleased with his effort in both defence and attack, a fine display topped by a drilled finish to extend Mansfield's rotten run to eight defeats and just one draw in their last nine league outings.
'We got our decision-making right and that gave us great control,' says Parkinson. 'We're never happy when we lose and we certainly weren't after Orient. But we responded really well.
'Max was great today. Defensively good but he also stepped in with the ball. Him and Tommy (O'Connor) were progressive in staring attacks off for us, which is really key to how we play.'
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