Exclusive: inside the spy dossier that led Israel to war

WHEN ISRAEL launched its war on Iran on June 13th it did so on the basis of intelligence that it claimed showed Iran had reached a 'point of no return' in its quest for a nuclear weapon. That evidence galvanised Israel's own security establishment to support an attack now. It has been shown to America and other Western partners, presumably playing an important role in their ongoing decision-making over whether to support or even join the war. The Economist has not seen the material directly, but has gained exclusive insights from an authoritative source, giving a view of Israel's dossiers, as shared with its allies, and the claims they make over enriched uranium and the speeding-up of Iran's programme. Some of the details are already known; some are new. These claims are proving contentious, with the intelligence services of some Western countries cautious about the imminence of the Iranian threat, and signs of divisions within President Donald Trump's administration. Our report provides context on these disputes.
We understand that the information presented by Israel includes a detailed account of a recent, more urgent, push by Iranian scientists towards 'weaponisation', or the creation of an explosive nuclear device. The dossier provides two key pieces of reported evidence for this claim. The first is that an Iranian scientific team has squirrelled away a quantity of nuclear material, of unclear enrichment status, that is unknown to the monitors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a UN watchdog (on June 9th the IAEA assessed Iran had official stockpiles of over 400kg of highly enriched uranium). The second piece of reported evidence is that the scientists have accelerated their work and were about to meet commanders of Iran's missile corps, apparently to prepare for the future 'mating' of a nuclear warhead with a missile.
More on the war between Israel and Iran:
Much of Iran's previous dabbling with research and activity related to nuclear weapons was in the public domain already. The IAEA has published several reports documenting this, drawn in part from intelligence supplied by Israel and other countries. In 2018 a team at Harvard University also published their own analysis of Iranian documents purloined by Israel. Taken together, these sources described a broad and sustained Iranian effort towards making a uranium core for a bomb, the explosives required to implode that core in order to cause a chain reaction and a programme to place a spherical payload onto Iran's Shahab-3 ballistic missile. In a report published on May 31st, the IAEA noted that in 2003 Iran had planned to conduct what the Institute for Science and International Security, a think-tank, calls a 'cold test'—a simulated nuclear weapon which uses natural or depleted uranium rather than weapons-grade uranium.
Israel's intelligence assessments repeat some of this information. They allege that a cohort of Iranian scientists have been working on overt and covert weapons-related research for years. This effort was originally part of Iran's formal nuclear-weapons research programme, known as AMAD, that it shut down in 2003, probably because it feared an American attack. The scientists' ongoing work is thought to be carried out under Iran's Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research (also known by its Farsi acronym, SPND), under the cover of activity in fields like covid-19 vaccines and laser technology. One of a small number of non-scientists who were aware of the work was Major-General Mohammad Bagheri, who as chief of staff of Iran's military had oversight of both the regular armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
But the Israeli intelligence dossiers also contain information that, if correct, is genuinely new. They suggest that roughly six years ago the scientists formed a secret 'Special Progress Group', under the auspices of the former AMAD director, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. This group's aim was to prepare the way for a much quicker weaponisation process, if and when a decision was made by Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, to rush for a bomb. Mr Fakhrizadeh was assassinated by Israel in November 2020. On June 13th in the first hours of the war, the Israeli government published slides describing this backstory. But we have been told that it also shared further assessments with allies that suggest the Special Progress Group stepped up its research at the end of last year. Iran had a new incentive to advance to a bomb. It was reeling from the limited impact of its missile attacks on Israel, and the depletion of its air defences by Israeli strikes in October 2024. And it was facing the collapse of its proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah, in Gaza and Lebanon.
Lastly, Israel's intelligence states that a meeting had been scheduled between the scientists and commanders of the IRGC's air force, who are in charge of ballistic missiles. The information shared by Israel with its allies argues this proposed meeting was a rubicon, with the missile chiefs being let in on the secret for the first time, suggesting in turn that planning for the 'mating' process of a nuclear device to a missile warhead was about to begin. Iran had done some of this work in the past—in 2011 the IAEA cited claims that Iran had done computer modelling studies to see how a 'spherical payload', such as a warhead, would stand up to the stresses of being launched on a ballistic missile. Miniaturising and mating a warhead to a missile are highly complex tasks that could still take Iran a substantial time to master.
Israel's new claims are feeding into an American intelligence community that already has a range of views on the Iranian threat. In March Tulsi Gabbard, America's director of national intelligence—and a longstanding opponent of war with Iran—repeated the view that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. In recent days the Wall Street Journal, New York Times and CNN have reported that American intelligence agencies are sceptical of the new Israeli claims. On June 17th Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the IAEA, said that his agency had not been presented with 'proof of a systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon', although a week before the IAEA confirmed that Iran 'did not declare nuclear material and nuclear-related activities' at three undeclared locations in Iran.
Mr Trump may nonetheless have been influenced by the Israeli view. On June 17th he declared, 'I don't care what she said,' referring to Ms Gabbard. 'I think they were very close to having one [a bomb].' David Albright, an American nuclear physicist and weapons expert who is consulted by intelligence agencies, says that most of the claims contained in the recent Israeli dossiers are 'generally accepted among [Western] intelligence communities'. However he accepts that there are claims that are new to him, over the diversion of nuclear material and the suggestion of an imminent meeting with missile forces. And he says that American intelligence analysts also agree that Iran has accelerated preparations for weaponisation—in July last year the director of national intelligence omitted the traditional wording that Iran 'isn't currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device' in a report to Congress, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Assuming Israel's dossiers are factually accurate, there is still room for what Mr Albright calls the 'the interpretation of the facts'. Even if American analysts accept that Iran has the intent to pursue a bomb and has accelerated its push, they may disagree that it has crossed a threshold or that the threat is truly imminent. Meanwhile, the Israelis, he says, 'may think it's a bit faster and worry about their own ability to detect and act in time'. Israeli officials used to present their assessments of Iran's nuclear push using timelines measured in months and years. Since the war began, they have talked of the 'point of no return'—a moment at which Israel would no longer be capable of halting an Iranian dash to a bomb. Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, has spent decades warning of the threat from Iran. That means confirmation bias is a risk. But the stance of Israel's intelligence community is unified and consistent with the government's view. Perhaps it has been put under political pressure, but it has clashed with Mr Netanyahu and other prime ministers on the nuclear file in the past. Now it backs the war.
Nuclear physics is a science. Intelligence assessment is not, but has enormous real-world consequences. In 2003 America and its allies went to war in Iraq based on faulty assessments of its alleged weapons of mass destruction. In the opening strike of the war on June 13th, Israel assassinated key scientists and officials. Nuclear facilities have been bombed. The Israelis claim they have removed the imminent danger of Iran dashing towards weaponisation. Still, setting Iran's nuclear programme back by years also depends on destroying, or at least inflicting significant damage, on Iran's main underground uranium-enrichment plants in Natanz, and in Fordow, which has not yet been hit. Mr Trump may decide this is a job for America, whatever his spooks say.
Get 360° coverage—from daily headlines to 100 year archives.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Hindustan Times

28 minutes ago

• Hindustan Times

Donald Trump hints at Israel-Iran ceasefire, warns Iran has ‘maximum' two weeks

President Donald Trump on Friday indicated he may support a ceasefire in the ongoing aerial conflict between Israel and Iran, now in its second week, but said it would depend on how events unfold. US President Donald Trump expressed doubt over Europe's ability to mediate the ongoing Israel Iran conflict.(Bloomberg) Asked by reporters if he would back a truce while diplomatic talks continue, Trump replied, "I might, depending on the circumstances." He also warned that Iran has a limited timeframe to avoid possible U.S. military action. "I'm giving them a period of time, and I would say two weeks would be the maximum," Trump said, hinting that a decision could come sooner. Trump expressed doubt over Europe's ability to mediate the conflict. "Iran doesn't want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help in this one," he said. On the same day, Iran's foreign minister held talks with British, French, German, and EU counterparts in Geneva to discuss restarting diplomatic efforts on its nuclear program. European leaders urged Tehran to engage directly with Washington, but the discussions ended without a breakthrough. When asked whether U.S. ground troops would be required if conflict escalates, Trump said, "Well, I'm not going to talk about ground forces, because the last thing you want to do is ground forces." The Israel-Iran air war began on June 13, when Israel launched strikes on Iranian territory, claiming the goal was to stop Iran from advancing its nuclear weapons capability. Israel, which is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran, which insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, is a member of the NPT and responded with retaliatory strikes. According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, Israel's attacks have killed 639 people in Iran. Meanwhile, Israel has reported 24 civilian deaths from Iranian strikes. Trump and the White House have said a decision on US involvement in the conflict will be made within two weeks. So far, Trump's stance has ranged from promoting a diplomatic resolution to signalling potential military support for Israel, leaving global observers uncertain about the US course of action. Europe joins Tehran talks as two-week clock ticks President Donald Trump on Friday dismissed the prospects of European diplomacy resolving the Israel-Iran conflict, reiterating that Iran is uninterested in engaging with European leaders. "Iran doesn't want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help in this," Trump said upon arriving in Morristown, New Jersey. He also played down the possibility of urging Israel to pause its military actions, responding to Iran's demand that Israel cease its strikes before Tehran resumes dialogue with Washington. When asked if he would press Israel to halt attacks, Trump said it was "very hard to make that request right now," adding, "If somebody's winning, it's a little bit harder to do than if somebody's losing, but we're ready, willing and able, and we've been speaking to Iran, and we'll see what happens." Addressing the timeline for a potential US military response, Trump said, "I'm giving them a period of time, and I would say two weeks would be the maximum," explaining that the goal was to "see whether or not people come to their senses." A day earlier, Trump had said he would "make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks" because of a "substantial chance of negotiations" with Iran. That statement was interpreted as opening a short diplomatic window, prompting European leaders to meet with Iran's foreign minister in Geneva. However, Trump said the discussions "didn't help," and his latest remarks suggest he may act sooner if there's no progress on Iran's nuclear programme. (With inputs from agencies)

The Hindu

43 minutes ago

• The Hindu

Operation Sindhu: 290 Indian students return from Iran, land in Delhi

A flight from Mashhad, Iran, carrying 290 Indian students, mostly from Jammu and Kashmir, landed at the Delhi Airport late Friday (June 20, 2025). The Indian Government has launched Operation Sindhu to evacuate its nationals from the Middle Eastern country as hostilities escalate between Israel and Iran. Two more flights are scheduled to arrive later in the night, including one from Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, around 3 am, bringing home around 1,000 Indian nationals. "Heartfelt thanks to the Government of India, Ministry of External Affairs, and all concerned authorities for their timely intervention and support. A great relief for families who had been anxiously awaiting their return," the Jammu and Kashmir Students Association said in a statement. In a special gesture, Iran opened its airspace to facilitate India's evacuation efforts. Students were earlier moved to Mashhad from Tehran, and the flights operated by an Iranian airline were coordinated by Indian authorities. The evacuation follows days of aerial bombardments and retaliatory strikes between Iran and Israel. On Thursday (June 19, 2025), 110 Indian students were evacuated via Armenia and Doha before reaching Delhi. The Ministry of External Affairs launched Operation Sindhu last week.

NDTV

an hour ago

• NDTV

Trump Says He May Support Israel-Iran Ceasefire "Depending On Circumstances"

Washington: President Donald Trump said on Friday he might support a ceasefire in the week-old aerial conflict between U.S. ally Israel and its regional rival Iran "depending on the circumstances". Asked by reporters if he would support a ceasefire while negotiations are ongoing, Trump said: "I might, depending on the circumstances". Europe would not be able to help much in the war between Iran and Israel, Trump added. "Iran doesn't want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help in this one," Trump said. Iran's foreign minister met with European counterparts in Geneva on Friday for talks aimed at establishing a path back to diplomacy over Iran's nuclear program. European foreign ministers urged Iran to engage with Washington over its nuclear program, but the talks ended with few signs of progress. "Well, I'm not going to talk about ground forces, because the last thing you want to do is ground forces," Trump said, when asked if ground forces would be needed to defeat Iran. The air war began on June 13 when Israel attacked Iran and has raised alarms in a region that has been on edge since the start of Israel's war in Gaza in October 2023. Trump and the White House say he will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran war. Trump has kept the world guessing on his plans, veering from proposing a swift diplomatic solution to suggesting Washington might join the fighting on Israel's side. Israel is the only country in the Middle East widely believed to have nuclear weapons, and said it struck Iran to prevent Tehran from developing its own nuclear weapons. Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, has retaliated with its own strikes on Israel. Iran is a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while Israel is not. Israel's strikes have killed 639 people in Iran, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency. Israel says Iranian attacks have killed 24 civilians in Israel.