NOAA outlook predicts warm, rainy March for West Virginia: How accurate is it?

CLARKSBURG, W.Va. (WBOY) — All of West Virginia is leaning toward above average temperatures on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's most recent outlook for mid-March, but that doesn't mean the state will see summer-like temperatures.
The maps released over the weekend predict that temperatures in West Virginia will be above average for most of the spring, with the highest chance for unseasonably warm temperatures from March 10-16. However, that does not mean that those days will be the warmest.
The temperature outlooks from NOAA only predict the chance of warmer than normal temperatures, not how warm it will be. The same is true for the precipitation outlook; it does not indicate how much rain an area will actually get, according to NOAA's climate website.
The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a 'warmer and wetter' spring
The outlooks never claim to be 100% accurate. Even though some of the maps above predict above average temperatures at up to 80%, there is still a chance they could be wrong. They are meant to give industries impacted by weather an edge. For example, farmers can reference the outlooks to determine when to plan crops.
'The climate is not that predictable. There's always a chance one of the other outcomes sneaks in there,' the NOAA website says.
The outlooks are different from weather forecasts, which predict a temperature or amount of rain for an area. For more explanation on the NOAA outlooks, click here, and to see a breakdown of what the percentages in the maps above mean, click here.
According to StormTracker 12 Chief Meteorologist Justin Kiefer, day-to-day forecasts from trusted weather sources are accurate about 3-5 days out. However, different models can have discrepancies, especially in areas like north central West Virginia that are not near a National Weather Service headquarters.
StormTracker 12 Weather forecasts for the next seven days are available here, and other updates are shared on the StormTracker 12 Facebook and X pages.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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