A swarm at sea: Supplying troops with on-demand autonomous watercraft
In any drawn-out military confrontation, the U.S. must support its ground forces with food, fuel, ammunition and weapons. In a conflict with China over Taiwan, however, that material will be coming from as far away as the Philippines and Japan.
That means relying on the large, mostly unarmed, civilian-crewed ships, such as those operated by the Military Sealift Command, which are highly visible and vulnerable to attack. Military Sealift Command ships could be overwhelmed by the numerically superior and militarized Chinese 'fishing fleet.'
A less vulnerable and more scalable method would be to use low-cost, rapidly built, small autonomous surface vessels to deliver supplies.
Each could carry one or two standard shipping containers. They could work together in swarms of tens or hundreds, presenting a more dispersed, and therefore, challenging target. Even if a substantial number were to be attacked, damaged or sunk, it is unlikely that the adversary could destroy the entire logistical supply chain to the front line.
This would be a radical departure from traditional logistics supply using large manned cargo ships. Spreading cargo between many smaller watercraft almost eliminates the risk that all supplies would be lost to an attack. Water-line hugging vessels present a far smaller signature for detection.
Unmanned vessels would reduce the risk of human casualties and mitigate the acute civilian workforce shortages at the Military Sealift Command. Such software-driven ships would allow rapid updates to adapt to changing conditions to evade enemies or inclement weather.
Such small watercraft also don't require a port; they could arrive almost anywhere, bringing materiel closer to the fight. They might even deliver supplies just-in-time, loitering near conflict zones as an offshore warehouse.
Importantly, a fleet of such small ships could be manufactured quickly in the United States. Adaptive manufacturing techniques like 3D printing could ramp up production in the event of a conflict, while being able to ramp down in its aftermath.
This type of autonomous vessel could provide the U.S. with advanced logistics difficult for adversaries to counter. But like any new concept, it faces risks and constraints.
Open-ocean operation and the potential of disrupted or blocked communication or hacking means that each vessel has to be capable of independently accomplishing its mission. In the best of cases, autonomous operation allows coordination and collective control, but it will certainly pose technological challenges in development, testing and validation.
Offloading cargo without a crew or port is another major hurdle. But if the Pentagon committed to distributed logistics delivery, that would likely lead to technological advancements to solve this knotted last-mile problem.
Military planners must also consider the maritime laws and regulations of U.S. allies and partners, including rights of way and environmental impacts inside territorial waters. This could demand significant and urgent diplomatic efforts in a time of conflict, although that might be mitigated if that nation itself is under threat from the adversary.
In international waters, the jurisdiction and regulation shifts primarily to the International Maritime Organization, the United Nations agency that developed the maritime shipping 'rules of the road.' These rules will need to be modified if swarms of autonomous vessels are to operate legally in the open seas.
These aren't negligible issues. However, similar challenges have been overcome in recent years, including those dealing with the building, testing, verifying and deploying the complex software for the U.S. Navy's Aegis command/control system and the software for the F-35 fighter aircraft.
In the end, sustaining warfighting in a chain of Indo-Pacific islands against a potent adversary offers few traditional choices. The challenge requires clear thinking about new methods of supply delivery that are robust, scalable and resilient.
Kanna Rajan is a senior scientist at RAND, whose multidisciplinary research spans artificial intelligence, ocean science and robotics. Karlyn Stanley is a senior policy researcher at RAND and a subject matter expert on the legal and policy dimensions of autonomous vehicles.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Miami Herald
3 hours ago
- Miami Herald
Will skipping ‘Made in China' beat tariff price hikes?
For most shoppers, "Made in China" has been a way of life for consumers. The mark is on seemingly everything. That has consumers concerned about how tariffs and trade battles between the United States and China might hit home, literally. If tariffs ultimately act as a tax on consumers – most economists say they do – how can Americans avoid paying higher prices? Stop buying things that were made in China. That's easier said than Trump recently took to Truth Social to say that the United States and China have a deal that's done, pending final approval of leaders from both countries. He said that U.S. tariffs would be set at 55% on Chinese goods, while China's tariffs remain at 10%. Officially, tariff plans with China and other countries are on hold until July 9, but U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said several times that the 55% tariff "definitely" will not change. Related: Major housing expert predicts huge change to mortgage rates in 2026 While many of the harshest tariff hikes face legal challenges, current U.S. tariff rates are at their highest levels in nearly a century; estimates from the Yale Budget Lab say that's costing the average U.S. consumer an extra $2,500 a year. A recent study by covering consumer sentiment about tariffs shows that nearly two-thirds of Americans believe tariffs will have a negative impact on their personal finances. Just over 40% of respondents said tariffs would "greatly worsen" their personal finances. But even if consumers decide to tackle the China tariff problem by eliminating spending on goods from the country, it doesn't mean they will save money. They also will find the task daunting, if not impossible. That's according to journalist Sara Bongiorni, who tried to live without goods from China for a year back in the early 2000s; the trials and tribulations of her effort became the basis for her book, "A Year Without Made in China." Bongiorni, now an adjunct professor at Louisiana State University, woke up on Christmas morning in 2005 to a house full of stuff, and as she rummaged through it, she realized almost everything was made in China. "I said to my husband, 'Do you think it would be possible to live for a while without things made in China? You want to try that?' He was not very enthusiastic about that idea, but we gave it a whirl." Related: Forget tariffs, Fed interest rate cuts may hinge on another problem Bongiorni didn't set out to make a political statement or to write a book. She was simply hoping "to understand at a personal level, as best we could, how much we relied on things from China in our everyday, ordinary consumer life." In a recent interview on "Money Life with Chuck Jaffe," Bongiorni recounted how her rule was to avoid the words "Made in China," which are only seen on the end consumer product sold to shoppers. That's a low bar, given that countless products are assembled in the United States or in other countries using parts from China. Those goods-like the ones with the Made in China label-will incur increased costs due to tariffs. Bongiorni noted that in certain product categories – notably toys, household gadgets, many types of electronics, coffeemakers, sneakers and footwear, and children's clothing – it was nearly impossible to find items that weren't made in China. Even when she did find rare exceptions, Bongiorni noted that the options often pushed her to higher-end goods, which meant paying more for the purchase, in some cases, more than she would expect to pay now on goods from China with tariffs attached. "I think there were so many things we didn't buy that year because you couldn't find a viable option that wasn't made in China," Bongiorni said. She also noted that, ironically, it's nearly impossible to celebrate a wholly American holiday like July 4th without goods from China, as the small flags, fireworks, parade toys, festive paper goods, and more were made there. Truly trying to avoid all goods from China – including component parts – would be nearly impossible, Bongiorni said, noting that consumers would find themselves with no easy alternatives. "The share of things, ordinary consumer items from China, account for at least 65% of things you find in a typical household," Bongiorni said. "If you push up [prices with tariffs up to 55%], that is a huge impact, especially when we've got inflation and other things going on in the economy. It's a huge thing for most families to have to shoulder that burden." More Tariffs: Aldi plans huge price cut despite tariffs driving costs higherCar buyers should shop these brands for the best tariff dealGeneral Motors makes $4 billion tariff move Bongiorni does think the United States can bring some manufacturing back onshore, but that will have a limited impact because of the breadth and volume of goods coming from China, and the convenience of having those items and getting them cheaply. "I have a hard time thinking that we can lure ourselves off of our connection to China as consumers as a long-term affair," she said, "but also I can see a huge public outcry because this is going to affect people's bottom line every month." While Bongiorni recalls her efforts fondly nearly two decades later, she says she would not want to permanently do without Made in China, even if tariffs raise costs. Avoiding goods from China and finding alternatives was "incredibly time-consuming." And when there were no viable product options, she was willing to go without certain items for a year, but would not want to sacrifice them for a lifetime. "I do think it's interesting to have an awareness of where things come from, and to get a sense to the extent you can to which you are connected to the international economy on that consumer level," said Bongiorni. "I found that enjoyable and interesting, but the idea of weaning ourselves from Chinese goods, after doing this, just seems very unrealistic.…I can't imagine living like that long-term." Related: Fed official sends shocking message on interest rate cuts The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Politico
5 hours ago
- Politico
American bombers head toward the Pacific as Iran-Israel tension escalates
Several B-2 bombers took off from bases in the United States on Saturday headed for the Pacific, as President Donald Trump publicly weighs striking Iran. The movement in itself is not a sign that a potential strike is imminent; the Air Force has practiced months of steady rotations of long range bombers to a base in the Indian Ocean. But they come amid escalating tensions in the Middle East between Iran and longtime American ally Israel. The B-2s, which according to flight trackers were accompanied by aerial refueling aircraft, are the only aircraft capable of carrying the 30,000 pound bunker buster bombs that can destroy Iranian nuclear facilities deep underground. Trump has been weighing whether to use the American bombs to target the heavily fortified Iranian Fordow nuclear facility, which the Israeli military cannot reach alone. Trump is set to attend a 'national security meeting' in the Oval Office early Saturday evening. Two camps have emerged within Trump's party on the issue of direct military involvement in Iran, with a rift widening between them as each side becomes more firmly entrenched. While interventionists and Iran hawks urge Trump to take action, isolationists caution against engaging in another major Middle East war. With the interventionist faction appearing in recent days to be winning him over, Trump on Thursday set a two-week deadline to decide whether or not to strike Iran directly. The president has repeatedly said that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Trump had relaunched negotiations with the country to reach a nuclear deal, but talks had stalled after several weeks as Iran refused to relinquish its uranium enrichment program. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the planes' movements. The rotations of B-2s began this spring when the U.S. was bombing Houthi missile and drone launch sites in Yemen, which the group was using to attack commercial and military shipping in the Red Sea and launch attacks on Israel. Since then, there have been a steady stream of the long-range bombers moving between the base on the island of Diego Garcia and their home airfields in the U.S. The decision to move the B-2s came as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday warned that any direct U.S. engagement in the Iran-Israel conflict would be 'very, very dangerous.' Meanwhile, the Israeli military said on Saturday that it had struck an Iranian nuclear research facility and killed three more Iranian military officials in targeted attacks, with a senior Israeli military official telling the army to prepare for a 'prolonged campaign.' Tensions between the two countries boiled over last week after Israel launched a 'preemptive' strike against Iran, claiming that its aim was to destroy the country's nuclear facilities. Israel has also killed several top Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists in targeted strikes. The U.S. has joined several European countries in evacuating its citizens from Israel as the conflict intensifies. Nearly 80 staff and family members evacuated the U.S. Embassy on Friday as U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee advised American citizens in the country on how to seek government assistance to safely depart. Since Israel began bombing Iranian missile sites and areas linked to Tehran's nuclear program — and as Iran has retaliated — the U.S. has moved new assets into the Middle East. By next week, the U.S. will have two aircraft carriers in the region, and has moved several destroyers capable of providing air defense and striking sites deep inland, near the Israeli coast. New air wings of F-16, F-22 and F-35 fighter planes have also arrived at U.S. bases in the Middle East, accompanied by over a dozen aerial refueling tankers to allow for extended air operations over the region.
CNBC
5 hours ago
- CNBC
B-2 bombers moving to Guam amid Middle East tensions, U.S. officials say
The United States is moving B-2 bombers to the Pacific island of Guam, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Saturday, as President Donald Trump weighs whether the U.S. should take part in Israel's strikes against Iran. It was unclear whether the bomber deployment is tied to Middle East tensions. The B-2 can be equipped to carry America's 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, designed to destroy targets deep underground. That is the weapon that experts say could be used to strike Iran's nuclear program, including Fordow. The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, declined to disclose any further details. One official said no forward orders had been given yet to move the bombers beyond Guam. They did not say how many B-2 bombers are being moved. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Experts and officials are closely watching to see whether the B-2 bombers will move forward to a U.S.-British military base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. Experts say that Diego Garcia is in an ideal position to operate in the Middle East. The United States had B-2 bombers on Diego Garcia up until last month, when they were replaced with B-52 bombers. Israel said on Saturday it had killed a veteran Iranian commander during attacks by both sides in the more than week-long air war, while Tehran said it would not negotiate over its nuclear program while under threat. Israel says Iran was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons, while Iran says its atomic program is only for peaceful purposes. Trump has said he would take up to two weeks to decide whether the United States should enter the conflict on Israel's side, enough time "to see whether or not people come to their senses," he said. Reuters was first to report this week the movement of a large number of tanker aircraft to Europe and other military assets to the Middle East, including the deployment of more fighter jets. An aircraft carrier in the Indo-Pacific is also heading to the Middle East.
