Countdown to WWIII? Will Iran's response to US strikes spark the first Nuclear-age war?

Israel's war with Iran entered a deadlier phase after US President Donald
Trump
ordered strikes on Iran's three most sensitive nuclear enrichment sites—Fordow,
Natanz
, and Isfahan—in what he described as a clear warning.
'The bully of the Middle East must now make peace,' Trump said during a televised address. 'There will either be peace or there will be tragedy for Iran.' He added that if Iran retaliates, more strikes would follow 'with precision, speed and skill.'
According to US officials, B-2 stealth bombers were deployed with GBU-57 'bunker buster' bombs targeting Iran's hardened underground sites.
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Iran immediately downplayed the strikes. State media official Hassan Abedini claimed sensitive material had been evacuated in advance. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the attack as a 'barbaric violation' of international law and warned, 'In accordance with the UN Charter... Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people.'
That same night, Iran launched missiles at Israeli cities—signalling the war had just entered a dangerous new stage.
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Tehran's dilemma: Retaliate or recalculate?
Iran's leaders are now under pressure to respond. Some in Tehran argue a strong reaction is necessary to maintain credibility, while others warn of devastating consequences.
'If we do not react, the US will not leave us alone,' said conservative analyst Reza Salehi in Tehran.
Jonathan Panikoff of the Atlantic Council summed up the stakes: 'Iran can choose to strike US bases in a limited fashion... or it could go all in and trigger a regional war.'
The choices are grim. A major escalation could lead to more US strikes, risking the collapse of Iran's infrastructure. But doing nothing could make the regime appear weak, embolden its adversaries, and alienate its support base.
Strait of Hormuz: First flashpoint
One of the most immediate risks lies in the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow 33-km maritime corridor through which 20% of global oil flows.
Iran has long viewed the strait as a pressure point. In past crises, it threatened to mine the area with up to 6,000 naval mines. It could repeat those tactics now, using fast-attack boats and shore-based missiles to block shipping lanes.
Disruption here would send oil prices soaring and jolt financial markets worldwide.
The region has seen this before. During the 1980s Tanker War, Iran and Iraq targeted each other's oil exports, causing the most intense attacks on merchant shipping since World War II. Hundreds of civilians died, and the economic ripple effects were global.
History could repeat itself.
WWIII News: US bases in the crosshairs
The United States has a formidable presence in the region—40,000 troops across 19 bases, including sites in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE.
Each of these bases may now face the threat of Iranian missiles or drone strikes.
Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar): CENTCOM's forward HQ, hosting 10,000 troops. Crucial for operations in Syria and Iraq.
NSA Bahrain: Home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet. Around 9,000 troops stationed in the heart of the Gulf.
Al-Asad & Harir Bases (Iraq): Targets of past Iranian attacks, including recent strikes linked to Iran-backed militias.
Camp Arifjan & Ali Al-Salem (Kuwait): Major logistics centres housing over 13,000 personnel.
Al Dhafra (UAE): Equipped with F-22s and surveillance assets, housing 3,500 troops.
Meanwhile, US naval power is building. The USS Carl Vinson is already deployed in the Arabian Sea, with the USS Nimitz en route. Additional destroyers are stationed in the Red Sea and Mediterranean.
As tensions rise, these assets could be used for defence—or be drawn into a wider confrontation.
Axis of Resistance: Recalibrated but not broken
Iran's network of proxy forces—known as the Axis of Resistance—has been weakened by Israeli strikes but remains functional.
Hezbollah: Severely hit last year. Most of its top commanders are believed dead, and it is unlikely to lead a major counteroffensive.
Hamas & Islamic Jihad: Battered during Israel's war in Gaza. Their operational capacity is diminished.
Houthis (Yemen): Still active. They've pledged to resume attacks in the Red Sea if the US deepens its role.
Shiite Militias
(Iraq): Have launched recent drone attacks on US bases. Many are closely aligned with Tehran.
Experts say Iran may also activate overseas operations, similar to the 1994 attack on a Jewish centre in Argentina. These low-cost, high-impact actions fall under Iran's strategy of asymmetric warfare—a method it has used for decades to pressure more powerful adversaries.
Quds Force: Still in the shadows
The Quds Force, the foreign arm of Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard
Corps, is believed to remain intact despite recent Israeli strikes. Though reports suggest its commander Esmail Qaani may have been targeted, the force's infrastructure is designed to survive and respond without central command.
Created in 1988, the Quds Force runs Iran's foreign military operations—coordinating proxy groups, funding militias, and carrying out covert missions.
Even as Hezbollah is pushed back and Hamas is isolated, this unit offers Iran the means to strike indirectly, globally, and without open attribution.
Retaliate now or wait? Tehran's clock is ticking
Inside Iran's decision-making circles, three scenarios are on the table:
Immediate retaliation using missiles or drones against US bases and assets.
Delayed retaliation, hitting at a time when American forces are less alert.
No retaliation, instead reopening diplomacy and framing the US strikes as illegal aggression to win global support.
Each option carries risk. Each could reshape the future of the region.
A former Revolutionary Guard commander, Gen.
Mohsen Rezaei
, had warned before the US strikes, 'If Trump enters this conflict, Iran will strike American military assets, mine the Persian Gulf, and attempt to shut the Strait of Hormuz.'
That moment may now be at hand.
Iran's playbook: Asymmetric warfare beyond borders
Iran's strategic doctrine, shaped since the 1979 revolution, relies on asymmetric warfare, actions that blur the lines between overt military response and deniable covert operations.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has long endorsed a posture of 'forward deterrence.' This includes supporting proxy militias, conducting cyber warfare, and even orchestrating targeted killings or foreign sabotage operations.
This strategy is executed primarily through the Quds Force, a covert wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Its operatives run clandestine networks in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and further abroad.
Despite reports of recent Israeli strikes on IRGC command centres—one of which allegedly killed General Hossein Salami—the infrastructure of the Quds Force remains functional. Field commanders are trained to operate autonomously, with contingency plans for rapid response even under decapitation scenarios.
In essence, Iran can still strike without formally taking credit—and it may prefer this method in the coming weeks.
Iran's nuclear programme remains dispersed and partially functional despite the US attack. Though the
IAEA
and US intelligence say Iran hasn't pursued a bomb since 2003, enrichment continues at 60%—close to weapons-grade.
Experts caution that strikes like these can delay, but not erase, Iran's capabilities.
With diplomatic options fading and public anger rising, the Islamic Republic must now decide: will it retaliate boldly, strike strategically, or attempt to recalibrate?
As Trump warned, 'Remember, there are many targets left.'

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