Mexico's Sheinbaum claims drop in homicides, experts dubious
Since Sheinbaum took over from party colleague Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador last October, official data shows murders in the cartel violence-riddled country dropping by a quarter to May.
Partly driven by pressure from US President Donald Trump to curb drug trafficking and illegal north-bound migration, Sheinbaum has boosted intelligence and investigative capacity.
She has deployed boots on the ground to flush out trouble makers -- a U-turn from her predecessor's "hugs, not bullets" approach to reducing poverty and other causes of violent crime while avoiding armed confrontations with criminal gangs.
"The strategy is working," Sheinbaum told journalists last week.
How did she do it?
Sheinbaum in February deployed 10,000 national guardsmen to the northern border to crack down on drug trafficking and illegal migration. Thousands more troops were sent to violent states such as Sinaloa and Guanajuato to boost security.
She has created new departments in the security secretariat, including a "National Intelligence System" tasked with detecting criminal networks and anticipating and preventing their misdeeds, as well as a body to streamline and coordinate police intelligence and investigations.
"President Claudia Sheinbaum's security strategy refocused resources on combating organized crime and... this may be having an effect on the trend in intentional homicides," said Armando Vargas, coordinator of the security program at the Mexico Evalua think tank.
David Mora of the Crisis Group research center pointed to a renewed focus on identifying violence hotspots and deploying forces there.
Guanajuato state in central Mexico was a "perfect example," said Mora: with homicides there dropping by half under the new approach.
- Reliable stats?-
Data from the security secretariat show there were 2,607 "intentional homicides" in Mexico last September -- Lopez Obrador's final month in office -- and 1,998 last month.
The downward trend was not consistent, with jumps in the numbers some months, but calculated on an average, the government said it represented a 25.8 percent drop.
Experts say rather than measuring the decrease from last September -- a particularly violent month -- one should compare year-on-year periods.
Comparing homicide numbers for October 2024 to May 2025 with the same eight-month period a year earlier, there is also sees a declining trend. But it is much smaller one, with a seven percent drop, said Mora.
"Reducing homicides by a quarter in six months would be unprecedented. And yet it is the narrative the government is promoting," he added.
Vargas said the numbers did not include people reported missing, possibly dead -- another "method by which organized crime eliminates individuals."
Killings whose motives are listed as "undetermined" are also left out of the tally.
"There are several states with particularly high levels of undetermined causes (for homicides). Mexico City, Michoacan, Veracruz, for example," said Mora.
Criminal violence has claimed more than 480,000 lives in Mexico since 2006. Some 120,000 people are officially missing, and mass graves are regularly unearthed.
Can it be sustained?
Mexico does not have a good track record in bringing wrongdoers to account: Some 90 percent of crimes are never punished.
"The only thing that stops murderers from committing more murders is ensuring that they are punished," said Mora.
According to Vargas, there are worrying signs in states like Chiapas and Tabasco, where conflict between drug gangs is escalating, and Sinaloa where even mass troop deployments have been unable to stop the violence of the cartel by the same name.
Over 1,000 people have been killed in Sinaloa since September.
Is there reason to celebrate?
Mexico still has by far one of the highest homicide rates in the world, comparable to those of countries at war.
In May, gunmen shot dead an aide and an advisor to Mayor Clara Brugada in a rush hour double homicide on a busy avenue in the capital Mexico City. In the last week, two female mayors were assassinated in the states of Oaxaca and Michoacan.
For Mora, it would be "a monumental mistake" to celebrate too soon.
"The levels of homicidal violence remain alarming," he said.
© 2025 AFP
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France 24
9 hours ago
- France 24
Mexico's Sheinbaum claims drop in homicides, experts dubious
Since Sheinbaum took over from party colleague Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador last October, official data shows murders in the cartel violence-riddled country dropping by a quarter to May. Partly driven by pressure from US President Donald Trump to curb drug trafficking and illegal north-bound migration, Sheinbaum has boosted intelligence and investigative capacity. She has deployed boots on the ground to flush out trouble makers -- a U-turn from her predecessor's "hugs, not bullets" approach to reducing poverty and other causes of violent crime while avoiding armed confrontations with criminal gangs. "The strategy is working," Sheinbaum told journalists last week. How did she do it? Sheinbaum in February deployed 10,000 national guardsmen to the northern border to crack down on drug trafficking and illegal migration. Thousands more troops were sent to violent states such as Sinaloa and Guanajuato to boost security. She has created new departments in the security secretariat, including a "National Intelligence System" tasked with detecting criminal networks and anticipating and preventing their misdeeds, as well as a body to streamline and coordinate police intelligence and investigations. "President Claudia Sheinbaum's security strategy refocused resources on combating organized crime and... this may be having an effect on the trend in intentional homicides," said Armando Vargas, coordinator of the security program at the Mexico Evalua think tank. David Mora of the Crisis Group research center pointed to a renewed focus on identifying violence hotspots and deploying forces there. Guanajuato state in central Mexico was a "perfect example," said Mora: with homicides there dropping by half under the new approach. - Reliable stats?- Data from the security secretariat show there were 2,607 "intentional homicides" in Mexico last September -- Lopez Obrador's final month in office -- and 1,998 last month. The downward trend was not consistent, with jumps in the numbers some months, but calculated on an average, the government said it represented a 25.8 percent drop. Experts say rather than measuring the decrease from last September -- a particularly violent month -- one should compare year-on-year periods. Comparing homicide numbers for October 2024 to May 2025 with the same eight-month period a year earlier, there is also sees a declining trend. But it is much smaller one, with a seven percent drop, said Mora. "Reducing homicides by a quarter in six months would be unprecedented. And yet it is the narrative the government is promoting," he added. Vargas said the numbers did not include people reported missing, possibly dead -- another "method by which organized crime eliminates individuals." Killings whose motives are listed as "undetermined" are also left out of the tally. "There are several states with particularly high levels of undetermined causes (for homicides). Mexico City, Michoacan, Veracruz, for example," said Mora. Criminal violence has claimed more than 480,000 lives in Mexico since 2006. Some 120,000 people are officially missing, and mass graves are regularly unearthed. Can it be sustained? Mexico does not have a good track record in bringing wrongdoers to account: Some 90 percent of crimes are never punished. "The only thing that stops murderers from committing more murders is ensuring that they are punished," said Mora. According to Vargas, there are worrying signs in states like Chiapas and Tabasco, where conflict between drug gangs is escalating, and Sinaloa where even mass troop deployments have been unable to stop the violence of the cartel by the same name. Over 1,000 people have been killed in Sinaloa since September. Is there reason to celebrate? Mexico still has by far one of the highest homicide rates in the world, comparable to those of countries at war. In May, gunmen shot dead an aide and an advisor to Mayor Clara Brugada in a rush hour double homicide on a busy avenue in the capital Mexico City. In the last week, two female mayors were assassinated in the states of Oaxaca and Michoacan. For Mora, it would be "a monumental mistake" to celebrate too soon. "The levels of homicidal violence remain alarming," he said. © 2025 AFP
France 24
03-06-2025
- France 24
Ruling party-aligned judges set to dominate Mexico Supreme Court
The vote comes after a contentious overhaul made Mexico the first country in the world to select all their judges via the ballot box. The enormous democratic exercise asked voters to choose more than 880 federal judges as well as fill hundreds of local and magistrate positions. Despite confusion and low turnout -- with only about 13 percent of eligible voters participating -- President Claudia Sheinbaum declared the election a success. Her opponents, however, branded it a "farce" and warned the process would consolidate the ruling party's power. Sheinbaum's Morena party already dominates both houses of Congress. With 87 percent of ballots counted by late Monday night, judges aligned with the Morena party looked to be ahead in the Supreme Court race. But preliminary results also showed Hugo Aguilar, a member of the Mixtec Indigenous group and former advisor to the Zapatista guerrilla movement, on track to head the top court. The constitutional law specialist was leading over Lenia Batres, a Morena party member and appointee of former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. - 'Answer to the people' - Lopez Obrador initiated the judicial reform after repeatedly clashing with the courts as they blocked several of his flagship initiatives. Mexico's Congress, dominated by Morena party lawmakers, fast-tracked the overhaul during the leftist leader's final months in office, despite critics' concerns that it would undermine checks and balances and leave judges more vulnerable to criminal influence. The majority of Mexico's Supreme Court justices quit over the reform and declined to stand for election. Sheinbaum, Lopez Obrador's successor, has championed the overhaul as much-needed to clean up a judiciary mired in corruption. On Monday, she downplayed the low turnout, arguing that 13 million Mexicans casting ballots was more representative than the previous process, which saw senators select Supreme Court justices from a shortlist prepared by the president. "Mexico is the most democratic country in the world," she said. Sheinbaum also pushed back at claims that she would end up controlling the judiciary. "Now the judges, magistrates and justices answer to the people," she said. Results are expected to roll in through June 10. 'Dark day' The leader of the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), Alejandro Moreno, denounced the vote as a "farce" and called it a "dark day for democracy." The elections showed Sheinbaum's Morena party was "willing to do anything to concentrate power. They weaken the justice system, trample on institutions, and block the way to democratic debate," he said. Hundreds of opponents of the reforms marched through the capital waving flags and banners with slogans including: "Hands off our democracy" and "No to electoral fraud." The elections will send the judiciary "to its grave," said Ismael Novela, a 58-year-old company worker. "It was the last counterweight we had against the totalitarianism of the executive branch." But many voters were mystified by the sheer complexity of the process, with a long list of largely unknown candidates vying for around 2,600 judicial positions. "They put forward X person but we do not know their trajectory, their dedication, what they have done, and... who is behind them, or if they are alone," said Gerardo Ramirez, a 63-year-old newsstand worker in Mexico City. In the western state of Jalisco, 63-year-old housewife Maria Estrada said she used her "intuition" because she did not know the candidates. Arturo Giesemann, a 57-year-old retiree in Mexico City, said his main reason for voting was "the disgust I have with the current judiciary because of its corruption." 'High risk' judges Opponents warned that elected judges could be more vulnerable to pressure from criminals, in a country where powerful drug cartels regularly use bribery and intimidation to influence officials. Rights group Defensorxs identified around 20 candidates it considered "high risk," including Silvia Delgado, a former lawyer for Sinaloa Cartel co-founder Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman. Another aspiring judge, in Durango state, spent almost six years in prison in the United States for drug crimes, despite an official requirement for a clean criminal record. Candidates were also supposed to have a law degree, experience in legal affairs and what is termed "a good reputation."
France 24
28-05-2025
- France 24
In world first, Mexican voters to elect all judges
The government says the unprecedented popular vote for judges and magistrates at all levels -- including the Supreme Court -- is needed to address rampant corruption and impunity. Critics argue it will undermine the judiciary's independence and warn the participation of controversial candidates -- such as a former lawyer for notorious drug lord Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman -- means it is doomed to backfire. On Sunday, voters will choose several thousand federal, district and local judges and magistrates. Another election for the remainder will be held in 2027. Not just anybody can run for one of these jobs. Candidates must have a law degree, experience in legal affairs, what is termed "a good reputation," and no criminal record. Opponents, including judicial workers, have held a series of mass street protests in an unsuccessful attempt to stop the reforms. "Justice is not something you vote for" and it needs people with experience and specialized knowledge, said Olimpia Rojas Luviano, a 28-year-old lawyer. But Maria del Rocio Morales, a judge who is standing to be a magistrate in the capital, said she was happy to take part. "For the good of my city and my country, I will do it," she said. President Claudia Sheinbaum has played down signs that many voters are unlikely to take part in the vote . "People are very intelligent and know who they are going to vote for," the veteran left-winger said. According to surveys by the El Universal and El Pais newspapers, only half of voters know the election date, and only four out of 10 are certain they will participate. 'Rotten' judiciary While judicial elections are not new -- the United States and Bolivia, for instance, allow voters to pick some judges -- Mexico will be the only nation to elect them at all levels. The reform was championed by Sheinbaum's predecessor and mentor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who criticized the judicial system as "rotten," corrupt and serving the interests of the political and economic elite. Mexico has a long history of human rights violations that remain unpunished, including the disappearance of 43 students from a teacher training college in 2014, allegedly at the hands of drug traffickers and corrupt authorities. Despite dozens of arrests, there have been no convictions. Mexico's criminal justice system "is profoundly ineffective at ensuring accountability for criminal violence and abuses by security forces," according to New York-based Human Right Watch. Lopez Obrador frequently clashed with the judiciary, in particular the Supreme Court, which impeded some of his policies. Sheinbaum, who replaced him in October, is a staunch supporter of the sweeping changes. Her opponents say they will eliminate democratic checks and balances. Sheinbaum's ruling party already dominates both houses of Congress. Opponents warn that elected judges could be more vulnerable to pressure from criminals, in a country where powerful drug cartels regularly use bribery and intimidation to influence officials. Rights group Defensorxs has identified around 20 candidates it considers "high risk" for reasons including allegations of cartel links, corruption and sexual abuse, even though one of the requirements for running is to have no criminal record. These people include Silvia Delgado, a former lawyer for "El Chapo," the Sinaloa cartel co-founder imprisoned in the United States. Defensorxs describes her as a candidate who "defends alleged drug traffickers." Delgado, who is standing to be a judge in the northern state of Chihuahua, told AFP: "Every person has the right to counsel." Another controversial candidate seeking to be a district judge in the northern state of Durango served prison time in the United States for drug crimes, according to Defensorxs. A major concern for voters is the complexity of a vote that will require people in Mexico City to mark nine ballots for local and federal judges.
