Expert view: Can Nifty 50 surpass 26k in June? 5 stocks to buy for next 1 year and more
Expert view on markets: Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura Securities, says India's healthy economic growth, robust corporate earnings and steady inflows from domestic institutional investors have supported the Indian stock market. He, however, is cautiously optimistic about the domestic market for June 2025. In an interview with Mint, Bolinjkar shares his views on markets, key triggers and five stocks to buy for the next one year. Here are edited excerpts of the interview:
The Nifty 50 is demonstrating notable resilience, having recently surpassed the significant 25,000 mark in late May 2025.
This strength is underpinned by several positive domestic factors: India's healthy macroeconomic indicators, robust corporate earnings from the recent quarter showing continued momentum, and steady inflows from domestic institutional investors.
Further bolstering sentiment, the RBI announced a substantial record dividend of ₹ 2.69 lakh crore to the government in May 2025, and the monsoon season has commenced, reportedly on an early to normal schedule according to IMD.
Looking towards June 2025, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. While the market digests recent gains, further upward movement towards the 26,000 level would be a significant next step.
The Indian equity market enjoys several structural tailwinds. These include strong GDP growth, stable fiscal and external accounts, buoyant high-frequency indicators like GST collections and PMI, and strong domestic liquidity from mutual fund SIPs.
Additionally, the government's capex push and formalisation of the economy continue to support long-term growth.
However, there are notable headwinds, too—elevated valuations, especially in mid- and small caps, pose risks of correction.
Global concerns like US inflation, uncertainty around rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions can also trigger volatility.
Furthermore, rural consumption remains under pressure due to weather uncertainty and high food inflation, which could weigh on consumption-driven sectors.
Lastly, election-related volatility could lead to short-term swings in sentiment.
The recent rally in mid and small-cap stocks has been significantly supported by retail and HNI participation, evident from surging volumes and mutual fund inflows into small-cap schemes.
However, it is not just retail froth—there is genuine earnings growth in many companies, especially those linked to manufacturing, defence, railways, and infrastructure.
Several promoters have increased their stakes, suggesting long-term confidence. That said, valuations in many pockets are rich and call for careful stock selection.
While the broader index might seem expensive, opportunities still exist in under-researched companies with strong balance sheets, good governance, and clear earnings visibility.
Investors must stay selective and avoid chasing momentum blindly.
Q4 earnings were largely in line with street expectations, but there were positive surprises in some pockets.
Banks and NBFCs continued their strong performance with healthy loan growth, stable asset quality, and robust NIMs.
Capital goods and industrial companies reported strong order books and execution, while the auto sector delivered margin improvement, aided by lower input costs.
On the flip side, IT services disappointed due to weak discretionary tech spending and delays in deal ramp-ups.
Consumer staples saw sluggish rural demand, and some cement players struggled with weak pricing trends in certain regions.
Among PSUs, select companies like NTPC, BEL, and BHEL surprised positively, triggering earnings upgrades and valuation re-ratings. Overall, earnings growth remains broad-based, with cyclicals and investment-driven themes outperforming.
Yes, India's long-term structural growth story remains compelling and globally attractive.
Driven by a young population, rapid digital adoption, formalisation of the economy, and a shift in global supply chains towards India (China+1, Europe+1 strategies), the country is well-positioned to sustain 6–7 %+ real GDP growth.
The government's continued thrust on infrastructure, PLI-linked manufacturing, and digital financial inclusion is a further enabler.
Investors looking at long-term themes can participate through sectors such as private banking, capital goods, real estate, renewables, and defence.
Additionally, focused bets in mid and small-cap companies with niche capabilities can generate alpha. Building a diversified portfolio across these structural themes, with a three to five-year view, remains an attractive investment strategy.
HBL Engineering is gaining traction in defence electronics and railway safety systems, benefiting from India's infrastructure and indigenous defence push. Strong order visibility, operating leverage, and niche capabilities support earnings growth.
Thomas Cook is benefiting from a rebound in outbound travel and a strong recovery in MICE and forex services. Operational efficiency and a strong brand recall offer room for margin expansion and earnings growth.
Adani Green is a leader in renewable energy with strong capacity expansion and long-term PPAs ensuring cash flow visibility. Deleveraging efforts and India's clean energy focus make it a structural long-term play.
Welspun Living is witnessing export recovery and expanding in domestic branded home textiles. Easing raw material costs and diversification into newer geographies support earnings and margin improvement.
India's largest private bank, HDFC Bank, remains a core holding with a strong deposit franchise, superior asset quality, and rising traction from its merger with HDFC Ltd.
Read all market-related news here
Read more stories by Nishant Kumar
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
India Gazette
23 minutes ago
- India Gazette
India can play proactive role in stopping Iran-Israel war, says West Asia strategist Awwad
New Delhi [India], June 23 (ANI): West Asia expert and veteran journalist Waiel Awwad on Sunday said that India can play a proactive role in stopping the ongoing war between Iran and Israel. While speaking to ANI about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Awwad emphasised that India should leverage its position to de-escalate tensions in the region. '...Prime Minister Modi has said that this era is not for war. Peace should prevail. India will be affected by the war situation in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries and the Persian Gulf. Food and oil security will be affected...7 billion dollars of Indian revenue is generated there, so India will suffer...,' he said. 'India says that it is taking a leadership position -- even the G20 was held here -- which means India can play a proactive role in stopping this war,' he added. PM Modi on Sunday spoke with the President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, expressing deep concern at the recent escalations and called for 'immediate de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy'. In a post on X, PM Modi wrote, 'Spoke with President of Iran @drpezeshkian. We discussed in detail about the current situation. Expressed deep concern at the recent escalations.' He emphasised the need for a peaceful resolution and added, 'Reiterated our call for immediate de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward and for early restoration of regional peace, security and stability.' During the intervening hours of Saturday and Sunday, the US and Israel targeted Iran's nuclear sites in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Fardow is Iran's main enrichment location for uranium enrichment to 60 per cent. According to a CNN report, the US likely used six B-2 bombers to drop a dozen GBU-57 A/B 'bunker buster' bombs, also known as Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP), on the Fordow nuclear site, which is Iran's main location for uranium enrichment. A US official also told CNN that a full payload of bombs was dropped on Fordow. In his first public remarks following the strikes, President Trump warned that further action could be taken if Tehran fails to agree to a satisfactory peace settlement. 'There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we've witnessed over the last eight days,' Trump said in his address to the nation from the White House on Saturday (local time). (ANI)
Mint
34 minutes ago
- Mint
Indian stock market: 7 key things that changed for market over weekend- Gift Nifty, Israel-Iran war to oil prices
Indian stock market: Indian indices - Sensex and Nifty 50 - are likely to open on subdued note on Monday amid escalating tensions in Middle East. Asian markets plunged on Monday, meanwhile, US stock market closed in red, following the United States' strike on three nuclear facilities in Iran. On Friday, India's benchmark stock indices ended a three-day losing streak, rising over 1%, driven by short-covering ahead of the upcoming monthly derivatives expiry and relief over U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to delay involvement in Israel's offensive against Iran. The Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex both climbed 1.3%, closing at 25,112.40 and 82,408.17 points, respectively. The rally in the Nifty 50 was supported by strong gains in major stocks including HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, and ICICI Bank. 'Markets witnessed consolidation after the recent spell of subdued trend, as strong European cues and positive Dow Futures triggered a massive rally in local benchmarks. Investors also resorted to short covering ahead of next week's monthly derivatives expiry. Despite the rebound, investors would still maintain caution due to the ongoing West Asia conflict, as any spike in crude oil prices owing to escalation in tension could fuel uncertainty and spook markets," said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd. Asia-Pacific markets tumbled on Monday following the United States' strike on three nuclear facilities in Iran, which drove up oil prices and heightened investor concerns over a potential escalation in the Middle East conflict. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 0.58%, while the broader Topix index slipped 0.48%. South Korea's Kospi index declined 1.16%, and the tech-heavy Kosdaq saw a sharper fall of 1.99%. Meanwhile, futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index were at 23,396, indicating a weaker start compared to its previous close of 23,530.48. Gift Nifty was trading around 24,977 level, a discount of nearly 152 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, indicating a muted start for the Indian stock market indices. U.S. equity futures declined during early Asian trading hours after American military strikes in Iran. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 109 points, or 0.3%, while futures linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. On Friday, two of Wall Street's major indexes closed lower as investors monitored escalating tensions in the Middle East and weighed the Federal Reserve's outlook on interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 dipped 0.22% to close at 5,967.84, marking its third straight loss. The Nasdaq Composite slid 0.51% to end at 19,447.41, whereas the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up by 35.16 points, or 0.08%, finishing at 42,206.82. The world watched with tension on Sunday as Iran prepared to respond to a major U.S. assault on its nuclear facilities—marking the most significant Western military action against the country since its 1979 revolution and carried out in coordination with Israel. A day after the U.S. deployed 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs targeting the mountain above Iran's Fordow nuclear site, Iran pledged to defend itself. Meanwhile, U.S. leaders called on Tehran to exercise restraint, even as anti-war protests began to surface in cities across America. The U.S. dollar edged up modestly on Monday as cautious investors turned to safer assets, though the gains were limited, indicating that markets were awaiting Iran's reaction to U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities, which have heightened tensions in the Middle East. In the currency market, the dollar strengthened against most major currencies. It rose by 0.25% against the Japanese yen, reaching 146.415 after hitting a one-month high earlier in the day. Oil prices surged on Monday to their highest levels since January, driven by concerns over supply after the United States joined Israel in striking Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend. As of 0117 GMT, Brent crude futures rose by $1.92, or 2.49%, to $78.93 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.89, or 2.56%, to $75.73 per barrel. Brent has climbed 13% since the conflict started on June 13, while WTI has increased by approximately 10%. Gold prices are likely to be under scanner following a significant escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, as former U.S. President Donald Trump announced America's involvement in the war. On Friday, gold prices remained largely unchanged. Spot gold hovered at $3,369.63 per ounce—its lowest level since June 12—while the overall index recorded a weekly decline of 1.8 per cent. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures dropped by 0.7 per cent to $3,385.50. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Time of India
35 minutes ago
- Time of India
Rising prices for shrinking houses: How lavish lifestyle comes at the cost of higher loading factor; check this before you buy
Imagine an Olympic-size swimming pool, a swanky multistorey clubhouse, badminton and tennis courts, and landscaped gardens. A few years ago, you would have been picturing a luxury retreat nestled somewhere in the hills. But what was once a dreamy escape is now part of everyday life for many. An oasis of calm, comfort and luxury awaits Indian homeowners within plush housing complexes mushrooming amid the hustle-bustle of its big cities. However, this elevated living comes with a sharp trade-off: homebuyers are paying through the nose for open spaces, while making do with less living space. Lavish living, cramped spaces When you buy an apartment, you do not just pay for the liveable area within its four walls. A portion of the cost also goes toward shared spaces in the housing society—this is known as the ' loading factor '. It refers to the proportionate share of ancillary common areas and amenities added to the carpet area (usable inner home area) and included in the price charged to the buyer. It essentially refers to the difference between the super built-up and the carpet area of an apartment. To put it simply, the carpet area refers to the floor space where you can actually lay a carpet. The built-up area includes the carpet area plus the space taken up by the walls and ducts. The super built-up area includes the built-up area along with a proportionate share of common spaces such as the staircases, lift shafts, entrance lobbies, corridors, parking areas, and amenities. 'In India, property prices are usually calculated based on the super built-up area. While developers market homes based on this figure, the real value lies in the carpet area,' points out Akhil Rathi, Head– Financial Advisory at 1 Finance. A recent report by ANAROCK throws light on the steep premium homebuyers are paying for their lap of luxury. According to the real estate consultancy, the average loading factor in apartments across India's top seven markets has climbed sharply from 31% in 2019 to 40% in January-March 2025. This means that of the total space you are paying for, only 60% is the home interior, while 40% of the cost is for the common areas and amenities. In the past, a loading of 25-30% was the norm. Loading factor has surged MMR faces highest loading; Bengaluru sees steepest rise Homebuyers' preferences for a certain lifestyle is contributing to this trend. Nowadays, homebuyers covet expansive lounge areas with cafes, state-of-the-art gymnasiums, rooftop decks and multi-purpose utility areas. Experts point out that the loading factor is directly proportional to the amenities in a project. The cost of additional amenities provided by the developer is usually passed on to customers in the form of loading charges. Invariably, loading will be higher for larger projects, where more space is allotted to amenities and common areas. Live Events Prashant Thakur, Regional Director & Head–Research & Advisory, ANAROCK Group, observes, 'Today, higher amenity loading has become the norm across most projects partly because homebuyers are no longer satisfied with basic lifestyle amenities— they expect fitness centres, clubhouses, park-like gardens, and grand lobbies.' Additionally, regulatory and safety requirements, such as fire escapes, utility zones, and larger elevators, further increase the common areas, thereby adding to the loading, points out Rahul Purohit, Cofounder & Chief Business Officer, Square Yards. But the flip side is that homebuyers end up giving up on actual living spaces. Buyers often end up paying a premium for homes with less actual living area because the pricing is based on the super built-up area, not the space the residents actively use, Rathi explains. 'While such facilities may enhance the community living experience, they also reduce the size of individual units, resulting in tighter bedrooms or smaller living spaces,' he says. Jayesh Rathod, Co-Founder and Director of The Guardian Real Estate Advisory, asserts, 'Homebuyers are increasingly paying a significant portion of their total home cost for shared spaces rather than actual liveable space.' 'While high loading doesn't automatically lower resale prices, it may narrow the pool of interested buyers due to perceived space inefficiency", says Akhil Rathi, Head – Financial Advisory, 1 Finance. According to the ANAROCK report, Mumbai Metropolitan Region continues to see the highest loading among the top seven cities, with 43% in January-March 2025. Bengaluru has seen the highest percentile jump in average loading over the last seven years–from 30% in 2019 to 41% in January-March 2025. The ANAROCK report suggests this dovetails with the increasingly higher saturation of modern amenities that developers now include to cater to the higher lifestyle ask in the IT hub. Chennai, on the other hand, has the least average loading rise in January-March 2025 with 36%, aligning with a city-specific demand profile where homebuyers prefer to pay more for usable space within their homes rather than for common areas. In 2019, Chennai's average loading percentage was 30%. Same budget, different loading factors Knowing the loading factor helps assess value. Balancing act For homebuyers, the loading factor of an apartment is critical when evaluating projects with extensive amenities and open spaces. It is indicative of the functionality of the house. It also reveals the real value behind the price tag. Loading ratio tells you how much space you get for the money you spend. If the ratio is higher, it implies that you are paying a higher price per square foot than the advertised cost. Homebuyers can effectively compare relative value proposition of different projects. For example, if two apartments—Unit A and Unit B—each have a super built-up area of 1,000 sq ft and are priced atRs.75 lakh, but their loading factors are 25% and 33% respectively, it means Unit A offers more liveable space at 800 sq ft compared to Unit B's 750 sq ft. This trade-off between amenities and functional space begs careful consideration. 'This trade-off, paying more for less private space, has become a growing concern among urban homebuyers, especially in cities where affordability is already a challenge,' says Rathi. Individual preferences may differ, so buyers should evaluate offers accordingly. 'Higher amenity loading has become the norm across most projects partly because homebuyers are no longer satisfied with basic lifestyle amenities," says Prashant Thakur, Regional Director & Head -Research & Advisory, Anarock. 'For buyers who value access to curated amenities and community experiences, the premium associated with such projects can be well worth it, even if it means a slightly smaller functional space,' avers Purohit. Conversely, for those who prioritise maximum carpet area and functional layouts over lifestyle features, choosing a project with minimal loading and fewer amenities might be more suitable, he adds. Loading may also impact the resale value of your house. It can bolster or dilute the appeal of the tenement, depending on buyer preferences in the secondary market, experts say. Housing prices have shot up sharply Bengaluru has seen highest jump; Mumbai commands biggest premium. 'On one hand, projects with premium amenities and lifestyle-driven features often appeal to a certain segment of buyers looking for comfort, convenience, and community living. However, if the functional space feels significantly compromised, it could limit the resale pool or affect price appreciation over time,' contends Purohit. 'Higher loading may affect the resale value in some cases, particularly when similar properties in the vicinity or even nearby locations offer more usable space at the same price,' Thakur remarks. How to calculate loading factor Buyers must verify charges to avoid overpaying for less space. If super built-up area is 1,000 sq ft and carpet area is 750 sq ft: Older or more thoughtfully designed homes with minimal loading and better space distribution often attract greater interest during resale, Rathi points out. However, if a new project is developed by a well-known builder and offers premium amenities, some buyers may still find value in the overall lifestyle offering. 'So, while high loading doesn't automatically lower resale prices, it may narrow the pool of interested buyers due to perceived space inefficiency,' Rathi adds. Get clarity on the loading factor For homebuyers, clarity on the loading factor and actual living area is essential. Unfortunately, the practise of 'loading' in real estate is shrouded in a web of secrecy. Developers conveniently do not mention the loading factor in their glossy sales brochures. Regulations do not mandate developers to disclose this figure either. This leaves homebuyers in the dark about the value they are getting. To be sure, the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016, requires developers to mention the total carpet area provided to homebuyers. But not all states enforce the law. 'In most cases, buyers across cities, except in Maharashtra, are unaware of how much they pay towards the overall usable space within their apartment,' avers Thakur. Besides, there is no law that currently limits the loading factor in residential housing. It is left to the discretion of the developers, who justify higher loading for the amenities provided. In the absence of any regulation, some developers charge loading as high as 50% or more for their projects, experts point out. The onus is on buyers to remain vigilant. Here's what you can do: Ask your builder, the exact carpet area you are paying for and compare it with the super built-up area. 'Request a clear breakdown of costs, what portion goes to actual usable space and what is for common amenities,' says Rathod. Compare carpet-to-super built-up ratios across similar projects, thoroughly study floor plans, and, if needed, consult an architect or a real estate adviser. 'Comparing loading percentages across projects can highlight anomalies and offer a strong basis for negotiation, especially if the loading appears excessive,' Purohit comments.
