
Brice Matthews' timeline, draft pick compensation and ‘dudes just doing it': Astros takeaways
HOUSTON — Spring training is a time to ponder all possibilities, every permutation of how the ensuing seven months of a baseball season may unfold. Clubs consider everything and eliminate nothing, the byproduct of playing a sport renowned for its randomness.
Still, anyone inside the Houston Astros' infrastructure is kidding if they claim to have predicted this. A team crippled by injuries and held together by castoffs continues to win, ascending to a place it always seems to be.
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More than half of Houston's starting rotation is on the injured list, its home run leader has a bad hamstring and its best hitter hasn't appeared in a game since May 2. The Astros are somehow 41-30 and trail the Detroit Tigers by four games for the American League's best record.
'The history of the Astros, dudes just do it,' closer Josh Hader said. 'This organization finds a way to do it.'
Hader holding the Minnesota Twins scoreless in the 10th inning is perhaps the only predictable outcome from Sunday afternoon. A backup catcher in a 3-for-32 funk hit cleanup while two journeymen on minor-league deals batted seventh and ninth. Houston struck four singles as a result.
'We know how to win,' said Mauricio Dubón, who collected the last one, walking off the Twins in the 10th inning. 'We don't stop fighting. We come in the ninth inning and try to make it happen. That's the mentality we have over here.'
All-Star Energy. #VoteDubi x https://t.co/W06pfHQMR1 pic.twitter.com/5oiCa9GrRC
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 15, 2025
Dubón delivered Houston's ninth win this season in its final at-bat. The team already has 20 come-from-behind wins in its first 71 games. It had 35 total last season. The Astros have won 13 one-run games after winning just 18 last year.
Fortune is involved, yes, but premier pitching is propelling it. No staff in the sport has struck out more batters than Houston's, even with three members of the rotation sitting on the injured list.
On Sunday, a left-hander named Brandon Walter, in the second year of a minor-league deal he signed last August, allowed one run across 6 2/3 innings. His ERA is 1.53 after three starts as an Astro.
'You just know they're going to pitch good here, because it's how it is,' Walter said. 'It's contagious.'
Vibes are contagious for a club that's won five straight and 10 of its past 14 with a skeleton crew. Somewhere between spent and scintillated sits its manager, who plopped down for Sunday's postgame news conference and let out an exhale.
'Speechless,' he said.
A slew of injuries in their outfield allowed the Astros to summon prospect Jacob Melton for what was supposed to be an extended runway of playing time. Melton sprained his ankle Friday, spoiling the plan.
When Melton did, another path for a prospect opened. The Astros did not seize it, bypassing infielder Brice Matthews in favor of journeymen veterans Cooper Hummel and Luis Guillorme.
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Logic suggested the Astros could've moved Dubón into a primary outfield role during Melton's absence, allowing Matthews close to everyday playing time at second base.
That Matthews entered Sunday slashing .307/.408/.604 across his past 120 plate appearances at Triple-A Sugar Land only furthered some thought that the former first-round pick could be on the precipice of a call-up.
Matthews' lack of consistent contact prevented it, general manager Dana Brown said Sunday. After posting a 67.2 percent contact rate last year, Matthews is making contact just 67.3 percent of the time at Triple A this season. Only three qualified major-league hitters entered Sunday with a lower contact rate.
Strikeouts and swing decisions have long been Matthews' biggest enemies, though this season he has slashed his strikeout rate from 31.4 percent to 28.5 percent. He is chasing outside the strike zone just 20.2 percent of the time, too — 8 percent below major-league average.
'It's a combination of swing decisions and sometimes he chases a little bit,' Brown told the team's pregame radio show Sunday.
'He's swinging the bat well, and he's starting to make more contact, and if it continues to trend in that direction, it could get interesting. Maybe he'll force our hand. It's really good to see that he's swinging the bat well in Triple A.'
Without prompt, Brown also mentioned Matthews' success on the road, which is crucial in analyzing any of the Astros' performers at Triple-A Sugar Land. The Pacific Coast League is regarded as a hitter's paradise, especially in atmospheres like those in Albuquerque, El Paso or Reno.
Matthews entered Sunday's game at Reno slugging .672 with a 1.117 OPS in 146 road plate appearances. In 93 plate appearances at Constellation Field — a ballpark that isn't nearly as hitter-friendly as others in its league — Matthews is slashing .171/.323/.197. He has 35 strikeouts in 76 home at-bats and 33 across his 119 on the road.
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Brown has been prone to promoting prospects at a breakneck pace, especially those he's acquired or drafted during his tenure. He selected Matthews with his first draft pick as Houston's general manager and has made it clear he holds the 23-year-old infielder in high regard.
Matthews is viewed as Houston's heir apparent at second base in the wake of Jose Altuve's switch to left field. Only 10 major-league teams entered Sunday extracting a lower OPS from their second basemen than the Astros, who could seek to upgrade the position during next month's trade deadline.
Perhaps by then, Matthews is making enough contact to make that pursuit moot.
Saturday's 3-2 win accentuated two of the Astros' most promising young players. Hunter Brown struck out a career-high 12 batters across seven stellar innings before Cam Smith collected the first walk-off hit of his major-league career.
Brown's ERA is 1.88 after his first 14 starts of the season. According to Baseball-Reference, Smith is worth 1.1 wins above replacement. Only three Astros position players have accumulated more.
That present production could also benefit Houston's future. Both Brown and Smith are eligible for Major League Baseball's prospect promotion incentive, adopted during the most recent collective bargaining agreement in an effort to discourage service time manipulation.
Smith's eligibility had at least some influence on Houston's decision to put him on the Opening Day roster. Brown is eligible after debuting in September 2022, retaining his rookie status and then accruing a full year of service time in 2023.
Though Major League Baseball's official website says 'there is a limit of one PPI pick per organization,' two league sources confirmed this week that language is somewhat unclear. Players themselves can only give their team one PPI pick in their careers, but if both Smith and Brown accomplish the feat this season, Houston will receive two extra picks after the first round of the 2026 draft.
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Doing so would inject life into a farm system that needs it, though accomplishing it feels arduous. Brown needs to finish in the top three of American League Cy Young voting — a path that appears far more realistic than Smith's.
Brown owns the American League's lowest ERA, fourth-lowest WHIP and is holding opponents to a .182 batting average. Only Carlos Rodón has been harder to hit among American League starters.
Even if Tarik Skubal remains the favorite to repeat as the American League Cy Young winner, it is easy to envision a world where Brown finishes within the top three of voting — all that's needed to get a draft pick. Brown must maintain his dominance while monitoring the progress of Skubal, Max Fried, Garrett Crochet, Kris Bubic and Jacob deGrom.
For Smith to secure a pick, he must either win American League Rookie of the Year or finish in the top three of MVP voting. If the season ended today, Smith wouldn't factor in. Jacob Wilson, Carlos Narváez, Chase Meidroth, Shane Smith and Will Warren all entered Sunday worth more WAR than Smith among American League rookies. Ground must be made up, but Smith has the runway to accomplish it.
(Photo of Brice Matthews during spring training: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via AP Images)

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