CTOS Digital Berhad's (KLSE:CTOS) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 25% Above Its Share Price
The projected fair value for CTOS Digital Berhad is RM1.50 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
CTOS Digital Berhad's RM1.20 share price signals that it might be 20% undervalued
Analyst price target for CTOS is RM1.67, which is 11% above our fair value estimate
How far off is CTOS Digital Berhad (KLSE:CTOS) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for CTOS Digital Berhad
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (MYR, Millions)
RM112.5m
RM139.6m
RM160.5m
RM179.1m
RM195.5m
RM210.1m
RM223.4m
RM235.6m
RM247.2m
RM258.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x4
Analyst x3
Est @ 14.96%
Est @ 11.55%
Est @ 9.16%
Est @ 7.48%
Est @ 6.31%
Est @ 5.49%
Est @ 4.92%
Est @ 4.52%
Present Value (MYR, Millions) Discounted @ 8.7%
RM103
RM118
RM125
RM128
RM129
RM127
RM125
RM121
RM117
RM112
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = RM1.2b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = RM258m× (1 + 3.6%) ÷ (8.7%– 3.6%) = RM5.2b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= RM5.2b÷ ( 1 + 8.7%)10= RM2.3b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is RM3.5b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of RM1.2, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 20% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at CTOS Digital Berhad as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.918. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Professional Services market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Malaysian market.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For CTOS Digital Berhad, there are three essential factors you should further examine:
Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for CTOS Digital Berhad that you need to consider before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does CTOS's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Malaysian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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