This week in Trumponomics: Waiting for the bomb

President Trump has a binary decision to make: Whether to join Israel's attacks on Iran or abstain. But the consequences, either way, will likely be unpredictable, messy, and possibly momentous.
Markets have been blasé about the widening Middle East war that erupted on June 13 when Israel attacked Iranian nuclear weapon facilities and other targets. Stocks have barely flinched. Oil prices have drifted up, but at $75 per barrel, they're nowhere near crisis levels.
The calm may be deceptive.
'The potential for major downside market surprise is more elevated than many would have it,' Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, wrote in a June 19 analysis. "Market volatility almost certainly will be larger and longer in duration than the usual geopolitical event that is contained quickly.'
Trump started out talking tough about Iran's predicament, posting on social media on June 17 that he expected 'unconditional surrender' from the ruling mullahs. But Trump is clearly riven. His whole 'America first' governing theme is based on avoiding foreign entanglements, not embracing them. He calls himself a 'man of peace' and prides himself on negotiating savvy, not swordsmanship.
The standoff has led to an increasingly familiar Trump tactic: delay. Trump now says he'll decide by July 4 or so whether to aid Israel in its quest to destroy Iran's nuclear program and prevent it from getting atomic weapons.
During its first week of bombing, Israel was able to knock out much of Iran's air defense network, destroy many missile launchers, damage some nuclear facilities, and assassinate a number of Iranian military leaders. It's a humiliation for a nation with nine times the population of Israel and a fanatical regime that says the destruction of Israel is a foundational mission.What Israel apparently can't do, however, is destroy the Fordow nuclear complex, which is buried at least 250 feet beneath a mountain 60 miles south of Tehran. The only conventional weapon with a good shot of reaching that deep is the US GBU-57 'massive ordnance penetrator' bomb, which is so big that only American bomber jets can carry it.
So Trump has to decide whether to unleash a wave of B-2 bombers over Iran with the mission to demolish the Fordow complex. Armchair generals might see this as a simple one-and-done job. It's anything but. Iran would likely retaliate, threatening some 40,000 American service members stationed in the Middle East and possibly seeking to close the Hormuz Strait, a way station for 20% of the world's petroleum.
Trump needs a couple of weeks to think it over. But he's also seeking a way to get Iran to agree to limit its nuclear program through negotiations, which would fulfill his 'man of peace' declaration and avert a US war with Iran that could leave Americans dead and badly mar Trump's presidency.
This explains some of Trump's manic-sounding social media posts regarding Iran. Bellicose Trump threatened to assassinate Iranian leader Ali Khameini, saying, 'We know exactly where the so-called 'supreme leader' is hiding. He is an easy target.' He also said 'everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,' as if American weapons were about to obliterate a megacity as densely populated as New York.
Yet, Reasonable Trump has been urging Iran to accept a deal he's been working on since he took office in January.
A Trump deal is only necessary because Trump scuttled the last deal with Iran, which former President Barack Obama finalized in 2015. Under that deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear weapons development in exchange for relief from punishing economic sanctions. Trump withdrew the United States from that deal, saying it was too soft on Iran. But he never got a better deal. The Obama deal was imperfect, to be sure. But all of Iran's recent progress on nuclear weapons came after Trump pulled out in 2018, and Iran may now be within weeks or months of building a nuke it could launch at Israel.
Trump may now think Iran is in a can't-win position. Israel represents not just the threat of force, but actual force that degrades Iranian capabilities each day. That lets Trump play the good cop, whose supposed nuclear deal offers a way for Iran to escape Israeli pummeling. And with the massive ordnance penetrator in his back pocket, Trump can threaten even worse punishment than Israel is delivering.
But Iran still might not cave.
It could relocate much of its nuclear material and gird for the destruction of Fordow. Some analysts estimate Iran could reconstitute its nuclear program within a year or two, especially if it forswears any cooperation with weapons monitors or nonproliferation regimes. Iran could also try to snooker Trump into a sweetheart deal, hoping he'll grasp at anything he can claim as a victory.
If nothing much changes by the end of Trump's two-week decision window, will dropping the big bomb be Trump's default position? Not necessarily. Trump could simply delay a decision by another two weeks or find some other formulation for basically doing nothing.
Delay, in fact, is becoming Trump's go-to tactic. Trump has thrice delayed the date by which social media platform TikTok must sell itself to a non-Chinese buyer or go dark in the United States. Congress passed a law requiring that last year, but it did give the president the leeway of postponing enforcement, and Trump has taken advantage of it. The new deadline is Sept. 17.
Trump also delayed the 'reciprocal' tariffs on dozens of nations reaching, in some cases, into the high double digits. Trump postponed those until July 9, saying that he expected to negotiate dozens of trade deals by then that would obviate the need for tariffs. As the deadline draws near, however, there have been hardly any announced deals.
A buoyant stock markets suggest that investors think Trump will delay those tariffs yet again.
But Trump also risks losing credibility with his counterparts if he always delays and never makes good on his threats. If Trump doesn't get the job done with Iran, the Islamic theocracy could hobble along as a wounded but dangerous combatant willing to take bigger risks. Trump will look like a bluffer who brags about a giant bomb he's afraid to use. He might discover that keeping America out of foreign wars doesn't make the nation better off, after all.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman.
Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Yahoo

25 minutes ago

• Yahoo

Sword Health Now Valued At $4 Billion, Announces Expansion Into Mental Health Services

Sword Health announced Tuesday that it had raised $40 million in a recent funding round, giving it a $4 billion valuation. Founded in 2015, the healthcare startup has focused on helping people manage chronic pain at home. Using AI tools, the platform connects users with expert clinicians who then provide patients with tools for digital physical therapy, pelvic health, and overall mobility health. However, the company says this new round of funding will largely go towards developing a mental health arm of its program called Mind. Don't Miss: Maker of the $60,000 foldable home has 3 factory buildings, 600+ houses built, and big plans to solve housing — Peter Thiel turned $1,700 into $5 billion—now accredited investors are eyeing this software company with similar breakout potential. Learn how you can "Today, nearly 1 billion people worldwide live with a mental health condition. Yet care remains fragmented, reactive, and inaccessible," Sword said in the announcement. "Mind redefines mental health care delivery with a proactive, 24/7 model that integrates cutting-edge AI with licensed, Ph.D-level mental health specialists. Together, they provide seamless, contextual, and responsive support any time people need it, not just when they have an appointment." Sword CEO Virgílio Bento told CNBC, "[Mind] really a breakthrough in terms of how we address mental health, and this is only possible because we have AI." Users will be equipped with a wearable device called an M-band, which will measure their environmental and physiological signals so that experts can reach out proactively as needed. The program will also offer access to services like traditional talk therapy. Bento told CNBC that a human is "always involved" in patients care in each of its programs, and that AI is not making any clinical decisions. Trending: Maximize saving for your retirement and cut down on taxes: . For example, if a Sword patient has an anxiety attack, AI will identify it through the wearable and bring it to the attention of a clinician, who can then provide an appropriate care plan. "You have an anxiety issue today, and the way you're going to manage is to talk about it one week from now? That just doesn't work," Bento told CNBC. "Mental health should be always on, where you have a problem now, and you can have immediate help in the moment." According to Bento, Sword Mind already has a waiting list, and is being tested by some of its partners who appreciate it's "personalized approach and convenience." "We believe that it is really the future of how mental health is going to be delivered in the future, by us and by other companies," he told CNBC. "AI plays a very important role, but the use of AI — and I think this is very important — needs to be used in a very smart way." The rest of the cash raised in the funding round, which was led by General Catalyst, will go towards acquisitions, global expansion, and AI development, Sword Health says. Read Next: Here's what Americans think you need to be considered Shutterstock UNLOCKED: 5 NEW TRADES EVERY WEEK. Click now to get top trade ideas daily, plus unlimited access to cutting-edge tools and strategies to gain an edge in the markets. Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? APPLE (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report TESLA (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis Report This article Sword Health Now Valued At $4 Billion, Announces Expansion Into Mental Health Services originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Washington Post

26 minutes ago

• Washington Post

Israeli strikes on Iran cap dramatic shift in Mideast strategic balance

JERUSALEM — While the world braces for President Donald Trump's decision on bombing Iran and the tectonic waves that could follow, here in the Middle East, the earthquake has already struck. Israel's go-for-broke attacks on Iran launched just over a week ago — after decades of intense but largely covert conflict between the two powers — have dramatically shifted the strategic balance in a way that will probably prevail whether American bombers enter the fray or not, according to analysts in Israel, across the region and beyond.

Yahoo

27 minutes ago

• Yahoo

Top Cryptocurrencies Fall; Bitcoin Hovers Above $103,000

Major digital assets fell Friday with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) hovering above $103,000. The CoinDesk Mar Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data