A U.S. attack on Iran would show the limits of China's power
When China helped negotiate a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, it hailed the breakthrough as a victory for Chinese diplomacy and a sign that the United States' chief geopolitical rival had emerged as a major power broker in the Middle East.
But as President Donald Trump openly ponders deploying U.S. forces to join Israel in attacking Iran, the limits of China's clout in the region are coming into focus.
China has much to lose from a runaway conflict. Half of the country's oil imports move in tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on Iran's southern coast. And Beijing has long counted on Tehran, its closest partner in the region, to push back against American influence.
by Taboola
by Taboola
Sponsored Links
Sponsored Links
Promoted Links
Promoted Links
You May Like
Les trous de mémoire n'ont rien à voir avec l'âge. Il suffit de faire ceci
Découvertes Santé | Compléments
En savoir plus
Undo
But despite those strategic interests, China, which has little sway over the Trump administration, is unlikely to come to Iran's defense militarily, especially if the United States gets involved.
"The reality is they don't actually have the capability to insert Chinese forces to defend Iran's installations," said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. "What they would prefer to do is very quietly provide some material support, some rhetorical support and maybe some humanitarian aid."
Live Events
Though China favors stability in the Middle East, it could also gain if the United States gets roped into a prolonged war there, which might divert U.S. troops, ships and other military resources away from Asia.
Whether Trump decides to strike Iran will offer lessons for Beijing that could shape its own geopolitical strategy. China will be trying to understand Trump's approach to foreign policy and his willingness to use force. The outcome could influence Beijing's assessment of whether the United States would come to the defense of Taiwan, the self-governed island that Beijing claims, should China decide to invade it.
Despite China's close relationship with Iran, its rhetoric about the current conflict has been strikingly measured at the highest levels. After its top leader, Xi Jinping, called for a ceasefire during a call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia on Thursday, a summary of the call released by the Chinese government did not overtly criticize Israel for violating Iran's sovereignty.
Xi also refrained from directly urging the United States not to attack Iran, saying only that the "international community, especially major powers that have a special influence on the parties to the conflict, should make efforts to promote the cooling of the situation, rather than the opposite."
When China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, called his counterpart in Israel, he expressed Beijing's opposition to Israel's attacks, according to the Chinese summary of the call. But he stopped short of saying that China "condemns" them, as he had in a call with Iran.
In another call, with the foreign minister of Oman, Wang said that "we cannot sit idly by and watch the regional situation slide into an unknown abyss," according to a Chinese government statement. But it is unclear what, if any, specific efforts China has made to find a diplomatic solution. In any case, Israel would likely be skeptical of China's neutrality as a mediator because of its alignment with Iran and engagement with Hamas, the Palestinian ally of Iran that attacked Israel in October 2023.
China's efforts, at least in public, have been focused on evacuating more than 1,000 of its citizens from Israel and Iran.
"Beijing is scrambling to keep up with the rapid pace of events and is prioritizing looking after Chinese citizens and assets in the region rather than any sort of broader diplomatic initiative," said Julian Gewirtz, who was a senior China policy official at the White House and the State Department during the Biden administration.
Discussions of the conflict on China's heavily censored online forums have largely centered on the poor performance of Iran's military and security apparatus, though some participants have noted the limits of China's support for Iran.
Zhu Zhaoyi, a Middle East expert at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said in a post that China could not provide Iran with "unconditional protection" and confront the United States and Israel militarily. He said Beijing could only exert pressure through the United Nations Security Council, of which China is a permanent member.
"The turmoil in the Middle East is both a challenge and a test for China," Zhu wrote.
Chinese analysts often argue that Beijing is an attractive mediator in the Middle East because it will not lecture other countries about issues like human rights. "It's the only major power trusted by rival factions in the region, capable of achieving breakthroughs where the U.S. cannot," said Wen Jing, a Middle East expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
But some Western analysts say China played only a small role in the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, toward the end of those negotiations. Washington has also been frustrated by Beijing's reluctance to put pressure on Iran to stop Houthi rebels from attacking ships off the coast of Yemen, except in cases involving Chinese vessels.
That unwillingness to apply pressure on its partners undercuts China's standing in the Middle East, said Barbara Leaf, a former assistant secretary of state for near Eastern affairs at the State Department who is now a senior adviser at Arnold and Porter, a Washington-based law firm.
"Nobody is saying, 'We better call up Beijing and see what they can do here,' because Beijing has played a purely commercial and economic role," Leaf said, describing the attitudes of Middle Eastern officials with whom she has spoken over the years.
"They just sort of take it as a given that China is going to look out for China," she said.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Indian Express
32 minutes ago
- Indian Express
US Senate clears GENIUS Act: What the US stablecoin regulation means for the global crypto landscape
The US Senate passed the GENIUS Act Bill on Wednesday with a vote of 68-30 in a major boost for stablecoins — reserve-backed cryptocurrencies that have received an impetus from the Donald Trump administration in America. The next stage for the GENIUS Act will be passage in the US House of Representatives, where members have readied their own version of a stablecoin regulation bill, the STABLE Act. Challenges notwithstanding, the GENIUS Act's passage in the US Senate led to a surge in the price of crypto exchange operator Circle. According to exchange data, Circle Internet Group's share price was up 33.82 per cent at market closing on Wednesday. In pre-market activity, Circle's share price was up another 24.75 per cent to $211.87 apiece at 1:35 pm IST on Friday. US markets were closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth 2025 National Independence Day. Stablecoins, or commodity-backed cryptocurrencies, have witnessed a surge in market capitalisation to $251.7 billion so far in 2025, marking a 22 per cent rise this year, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing industry data. The passage of the GENIUS ACT Bill in the US Senate is backed by multiple actions taken by the administration of US President Donald Trump — from the announcement of a strategic crypto reserve to the promotion of cryptocurrency sympathiser Paul S Atkins as chairperson of the US markets regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission. Trump's family interests in cryptocurrency are well known and were mentioned in the Senate discussions after the tabling of the GENIUS Act. What US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on stablecoins In the run-up to the passage of the GENIUS Act bill in the US Senate, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a social media post on X that 'stablecoins could grow into a $3.7 trillion market by the end of the decade'. Recent reporting projects that stablecoins could grow into a $3.7 trillion market by the end of the decade. That scenario becomes more likely with passage of the GENIUS Act. A thriving stablecoin ecosystem will drive demand from the private sector for US Treasuries, which back… — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) June 17, 2025 In a podcast clip posted on his X page, Bessent said crypto is unlikely to pose a threat to the US dollar stating that 'stablecoins could reinforce dollar supremacy, because stablecoins can end up being one of the largest buyers of US Treasuries… T-bills.' Elaborating on how this may work, Bessent gave the example of how 'all of a sudden if you are using a stablecoin in Nigeria backed by the USD, you don't actually have to have dollars it's on your phone, you can transact (using dollar-backed stablecoins)…' Crypto is not a threat to the dollar. In fact, stablecoins can reinforce dollar supremacy. Digital assets are one of the most important phenomena in the world right now, yet they have been ignored by national governments for far too long. This administration is committed to… — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) June 18, 2025 'There's a very good chance that crypto is actually one of the things that locks in dollar supremacy,' Bessent added. GENIUS, STABLE and the race to regulate stablecoins The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act was passed by the US Senate on Wednesday with a 68-30 vote. The bill sets guardrails for stablecoins with proposals for compliance to ensure prevention of money laundering, full backing of cryptocurrencies by reserves and monthly audits. Last week, Bessent told Senators that the US stablecoin market could surge 8X to $2 trillion, CNBC reported. The GENIUS Act will be tabled next in the US Representatives House which has its own version of the stablecoin regulation bill, the STABLE Act. The Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act places oversight of stablecoins, or reserve backed cryptocurrency under the purview of the Office of the Comptroller the Currency in the US, similar to the GENIUS Act. However, STABLE Act differs from the GENIUS Act in terms of limiting reserve backing requirements to a clutch of assets such as US Treasuries apart from restricting who can issue stablecoins, according to Jeff Reundlet, head of accounting strategy at Cryptio, provider of ledger services for cryptocurrencies. However, the STABLE Act bill may not go far enough, according to a paper written by partners at the law firm Orrick. While the bill aims to create a single regulatory framework for prospective issuers, and excludes payment stablecoins from federal securities laws, it may allow state regulators the power to monitor which stablecoins may be supported by exchanges of licensed intermediaries, wrote Nathaniel Reisenburg, managing associate, and Joseph Perkins and Ignacio Sandoval, partners at Orrick. Trump's crypto interests US President Donald Trump took to his social media platform Truth Social after the US Senate passed the GENIUS Act bill, stating it 'going to make America the UNDISPUTED Leader in Digital Assets — Nobody will do it better, it is pure GENIUS!' 'Digital Assets are the future, and our Nation is going to own it. We are talking about MASSIVE Investment, and Big Innovation,' Trump added. In his podcast interview, Bessent reiterated the Trump administration's commitment to digital assets, while adding that 'because there are so many other things that happen around digital assets… it's one of the most important phenomenons happening around us in the world and the US just ignored it (under the Biden administration).' Trump reversed his stance on crypto assets from his first term, and even released his own namecoin to burnish his credentials as a backer of virtual digital assets. Cryptocurrency backers also contributed generously — around $20 million —into electing what is considered a pro-crypto Congress during the 2024 cycle, CNBC reported. Trump's crypto empire In a recent declaration, Trump disclosed earnings of over $600 million from interests including crypto, golf clubs, and licensing deals apart from other ventures. According to the public disclosure, the US President has earned an estimated $320 million from his $TRUMP memecoin. Trump also pulled in $400 million from the World Liberty Financial platform for cryptocurrencies which is backed by his children. The US President earned $57.35 million from the sale of digital tokens at WLF. He also reportedly held over 15 billion governance tokens in WLF. Other crypto ventures related to Trump include exchange traded funds held via Truth Social's crypto vertical and crypto mining firm American Bitcoin, CNBC reported. Crypto diplomacy and countering de-dollarisation Hacker group Gonjeshke Darande, Persian for 'Predatory Sparrow', with potential links to Israel, wiped off $90 million from Iran's largest crypto exchange Nobitex, Reuters reported, citing a Telegram post by the group. The attack was confirmed in the app by Nobitex, according to the report. Hackers wiped the exchange clean of a range of digital coins from Bitcoin to Ethereum and Dogecoin, said Andrew Fierman, head of national security intelligence at Chainalysis, the newswire reported. Last month, Trump family-linked WLF inked a pact with the Pakistan Crypto Council to boost cryptocurrency adoption in the country, days after it agreed to a ceasefire with India in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, which was launched by New Delhi to target terror camps across the border in response to a terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir which killed 26 Indian tourists. Apart from these instances of cryptocurrencies playing a key role in diplomacy as well as hostilities, digital tokens are also being used to reinforce the US dollar's supremacy, as pointed out by Bessent above. By formalising stablecoin issuance, backed by the dollar, the US is seemingly hedging its bets in a world where key economies are switching to commodities such as gold as they intend to de-risk their holdings from USD-related volatility. The US sanctions on Russia in the aftermath of the declaration of war on Ukraine involved the freezing of Russian foreign exchange worth $300 billion, triggering a risk-off approach among countries across the world. In 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a call for de-dollarisation, urging the BRICS grouping to promote settlements in national currencies and expand bank-to-bank cooperation. Trump warned the BRICS against such a move which could potentially hurt the dollar. In a statement in February Trump boasted he had warned BRICS nations of desisting from de-dollarisation or face outsized tariffs. The stablecoin route is expected to energise the dollar by promoting the use of cryptocurrency pegged to the greenback. It remains to be seen whether this will be adopted across the globe.
Time of India
38 minutes ago
- Time of India
UP has become land of expressways from bimaru state: UP CM Yogi Adityanath
UP has become land of expressways from bimaru state: UP CM Yogi Adityanath (Image: ANI) AZAMGARH: Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath hailed the state government on Friday and said that it is working towards fulfilling the goal of 'Viksit Bharat' by the year 2046. CM yogi asserted that Uttar Pradesh has changed its reputation and has become a state of "expressways" from a "bimaru" state. CM Yogi inaugurated the 91.35 km long Gorakhpur Link Expressway in Azamgarh on Friday, connecting several districts to Gorakhpur including Azamgarh He recalled the time when people were afraid of the name of Azamgarh but expressed his happiness that it has joined the path of "development" "The double engine government of the BJP is working to fulfil the goal of 'Viksit Bharat' by 2047... Uttar Pradesh has now made its reputation as a state with expressways from a 'bimaru' state.. Eight years ago, people were afraid to take the name of Azamgarh, UP.. Azamgarh has now joined the path of development... Purvanchal Expressway was inaugurated by PM Modi in 2021", CM Yogi said Critising the previous state government, CM Yogi Adityanath said that the work of the Agra-Lucknow Expressway was half done but during his tenure projects related to six expressways in the state have been completed. "The work on the Agra Lucknow expressway was half done. Today I am happy to tell you that we have completed six projects. You are witnessing the journey of the Purvanchal Expressway. We are continuously building it 300 km long. The 340km long Purvanchal Expressway has already been completed and its connectivity to Patna is about to be completed. Now remember how easy the connectivity from Patna to Lucknow and Lucknow to Delhi will become" CM Yogi said. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Free P2,000 GCash eGift UnionBank Credit Card Apply Now Undo He stated that the 340 km- long Purvanchal Expressway is about to extend its connectivity to Patna. He called freedom fighters Veer Kumar Singh and said that if the Purvanchal Expressway had been built in 1857, India would have become independent at that time. "When Veer Kunwar Singh, the hero of the first war of independence in 1857, fought the British till Azamgarh to defeat them, there was no connectivity. If this Purvanchal expressway had been there at that time, the people of Azamgarh would have beaten the British along with Veer Kunwar Singh and then this country would have become independent in 1857 itself. There was no connectivity at that time", he added Hailing Dinesh lal Yadav Nirahua, during his tenure as the MP of Azamgarh, CM Yogi stated that when he was sent to the parliament, a music college in Hariharpur was approved. He attacked the opposition and asserted that people who made Azamgarh a "stronghold" of terror didn't have enough time to honour the black pottery, sarees and music of the district. "He was sent to the country's parliament, and as soon as Dinesh Lal Yadav became an MP, a gharana of this music college in Hariharpur. Just think, in Hariharpur a gharana of this music needed recognition. the Kayan Badal dance was performed by all the MLAs here together, but those who had made Azamgarh a stronghold of terror could not find them. They did not have enough time to honour black pottery, to honour the sarees of Azamgarh, to honour the music department of Hariharpur village, to give a university to Azamgarh, to connect Azamgarh with air connectivity", CM Yogi added.
Time of India
38 minutes ago
- Time of India
Donald Trump Reposts Kayla Harrison Video; Internet Goes Wild
Donald Trump's cage-side appearance at UFC 316 has stirred more than just cheers, it's ignited a firestorm online. After champion Kayla Harrison leapt out of the cage to celebrate with him, Trump shared the moment on Truth Social. But what really grabbed attention was that he posted the same video twice. The clip shows Trump hugging Kayla, kissing her cheek, and patting her exposed stomach. As it went viral, critics accused him of overstepping and using the moment for political optics. Comments poured in, ranging from 'Be careful with that felon' to 'Left would say you groped her.' While supporters praised the gesture as patriotic, the trolling hasn't stopped. Trump doubling down has left many wondering: was this genuine admiration, or calculated media bait?
