Antarctic clouds and pristine air hold clues to climate model blind spots
From the deck of an enormous research ship, surrounded by icebergs, Chelsea Bekemeier releases a tethered balloon into the air.
She's standing in temperatures well below freezing, stationed deep in the Southern Ocean, just off East Antarctica.
It's about as far from civilisation as you can get. The closest city, Hobart, is 5,000 kilometres away.
But for scientists like Ms Bekemeier, this remote part of the world represents a treasure trove.
The Southern Ocean is known as the "engine room" for global weather and climate, yet it remains a big blind spot for climate data.
Scientists from around the world are making the mammoth journey to this end of the Earth to try and fill in crucial gaps in knowledge and improve global climate and weather models.
The journey, which she returned from last month, is not for the faint-hearted.
It took Ms Bekemeier — who is based at Colorado State University — three flights spanning more than 24 hours just to get to Hobart.
It is then another week of travel on board the Australian Antarctic Division's RSV Nuyina to reach Denman Glacier, one of the largest glaciers in East Antarctica.
She spent nine weeks on board the massive icebreaker, specially designed to break through the ice and huge swells.
The remote location and harsh environment are the very reasons research has been so limited in this part of the globe, especially in the lead-up to winter.
"I was very nervous," Ms Bekemeier said.
"They made it very clear to us after a year of medical testing, psychological testing, jumping through hoops, that you are in a remote region on a boat.
"If you need help, we have two doctors, but you really cannot get out.
"It takes a week if you're in good condition to get back to land."
The scientists on board the research vessel were investigating a range of important subjects — from marine life to sea floor mapping and recent rapid ice loss.
But for Ms Bekemeier, a climate scientist, it was all about the clouds.
The balloon the researchers released was fitted with sensors to capture data from the inside of these clouds.
Clouds are a crucial aspect of the Earth's climate system, acting to cool and warm it by reflecting sunlight and trapping heat, like a blanket.
"Clouds are constantly doing this job of balancing the incoming sunlight," she said.
"You can see that when you go outside on a hot day and the clouds roll in, and the temperature drops pretty rapidly.
"Then at night, if it's really overcast, it actually feels warmer because at night they insulate the planet."
Yet clouds are also the biggest source of uncertainty for scientists projecting climate change, particularly "mixed phase" clouds, which contain both ice and water.
It's this type of cloud that Ms Bekemeier is trying to better understand.
"The Southern Ocean is the cloudiest region on the planet," she said.
Currently, climate models struggle to represent the ratio of ice to water inside the clouds over this region — something that has big ramifications for temperatures on the ground.
"We really want to understand these clouds so that we can use them in the models to project future climate," Ms Bekemeier said.
Making matters more complex is the region's uniquely fresh air.
While clouds on land are influenced by pollutants and dust, the Southern Ocean has some of the most pristine air on the planet, meaning the make-up of its clouds is different.
Clouds formed over the Southern Ocean can contain microscopic marine life — like fragments of phytoplankton and gases they release.
Ms Bekemeier said understanding what goes into making clouds in this region was a crucial step in shedding light on one of the biggest blind spots in climate models.
A bit closer to home, CSIRO research scientist Ruhi Humphries has recently returned from a separate research trip onboard the RV Investigator, which also ventured into the vast, icy waters of the Southern Ocean.
He, too, is interested in the region's uniquely fresh air, not just for clouds but for what it can tell us about the impacts of human activity on the atmosphere.
"In a city, you would have lots of different sources of pollution. So you've got your cars that are spewing out CO2 and particles, and all your industry."
This clean air over the Southern Ocean gives scientists a better idea of the bigger picture of climate change, away from pollution.
"It's what we call baseline air," he said.
"If you are going on a diet, you need to know your before weight so you can figure out your after weight and how much you've lost.
"And for climate change, if we want to understand our impact and how to mitigate that effectively, we need to know what the atmosphere looks like without that pollution.
"So, we have to find a location on the planet, which is as clean as possible … so then we can understand what the impact of humans is."
This data has been captured in north-west Tasmania, at the Kennaook/Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station, for nearly 50 years.
But now, Dr Humphries and his team have the opportunity to cross-check how fresh that air is with the use of state-of-the-art technology.
"We've always assumed … that the air that we measured there is representative of that really distant Southern Ocean air," he said.
"But now … we're taking the ship south-west, down into the Southern Ocean, to test how far Kennaook/Cape Grim is representative of that baseline air."
According to both Dr Humphries and Ms Bekemeier, the research taking place in the Southern Ocean is a key part of understanding the impacts of climate change globally.
"The Southern Ocean is vital to the future of our planet," Ms Bekemeier said.
"Changes to this region will have impacts for the entire planet; impacts on the Antarctic circulations, impacts on the polar jet stream, impacts on climate around the world, impacts on weather in Australia."
It's for this reason that both Ms Bekemeier and Dr Humphries say it's important the whole world works together, as part of a global endeavour to advance climate science.
"We're part of global monitoring networks, and we're doing global climate models."
For Ms Bekemeier, this hits particularly close to home.
Her role on the Southern Ocean voyage was funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF).
The NSF has faced significant funding cuts this year under the Trump administration, with hundreds of research grants terminated.
"I am really devastated to see what is happening to climate science and science in general in the United States and the gutting of the US Antarctic program," she said.
"I'm grateful that we have colleagues that can continue this work because we might not be able to do it in our own country."
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ABC News
9 hours ago
- ABC News
Antarctic clouds and pristine air hold clues to climate model blind spots
From the deck of an enormous research ship, surrounded by icebergs, Chelsea Bekemeier releases a tethered balloon into the air. She's standing in temperatures well below freezing, stationed deep in the Southern Ocean, just off East Antarctica. It's about as far from civilisation as you can get. The closest city, Hobart, is 5,000 kilometres away. But for scientists like Ms Bekemeier, this remote part of the world represents a treasure trove. The Southern Ocean is known as the "engine room" for global weather and climate, yet it remains a big blind spot for climate data. Scientists from around the world are making the mammoth journey to this end of the Earth to try and fill in crucial gaps in knowledge and improve global climate and weather models. The journey, which she returned from last month, is not for the faint-hearted. It took Ms Bekemeier — who is based at Colorado State University — three flights spanning more than 24 hours just to get to Hobart. It is then another week of travel on board the Australian Antarctic Division's RSV Nuyina to reach Denman Glacier, one of the largest glaciers in East Antarctica. She spent nine weeks on board the massive icebreaker, specially designed to break through the ice and huge swells. The remote location and harsh environment are the very reasons research has been so limited in this part of the globe, especially in the lead-up to winter. "I was very nervous," Ms Bekemeier said. "They made it very clear to us after a year of medical testing, psychological testing, jumping through hoops, that you are in a remote region on a boat. "If you need help, we have two doctors, but you really cannot get out. "It takes a week if you're in good condition to get back to land." The scientists on board the research vessel were investigating a range of important subjects — from marine life to sea floor mapping and recent rapid ice loss. But for Ms Bekemeier, a climate scientist, it was all about the clouds. The balloon the researchers released was fitted with sensors to capture data from the inside of these clouds. Clouds are a crucial aspect of the Earth's climate system, acting to cool and warm it by reflecting sunlight and trapping heat, like a blanket. "Clouds are constantly doing this job of balancing the incoming sunlight," she said. "You can see that when you go outside on a hot day and the clouds roll in, and the temperature drops pretty rapidly. "Then at night, if it's really overcast, it actually feels warmer because at night they insulate the planet." Yet clouds are also the biggest source of uncertainty for scientists projecting climate change, particularly "mixed phase" clouds, which contain both ice and water. It's this type of cloud that Ms Bekemeier is trying to better understand. "The Southern Ocean is the cloudiest region on the planet," she said. Currently, climate models struggle to represent the ratio of ice to water inside the clouds over this region — something that has big ramifications for temperatures on the ground. "We really want to understand these clouds so that we can use them in the models to project future climate," Ms Bekemeier said. Making matters more complex is the region's uniquely fresh air. While clouds on land are influenced by pollutants and dust, the Southern Ocean has some of the most pristine air on the planet, meaning the make-up of its clouds is different. Clouds formed over the Southern Ocean can contain microscopic marine life — like fragments of phytoplankton and gases they release. Ms Bekemeier said understanding what goes into making clouds in this region was a crucial step in shedding light on one of the biggest blind spots in climate models. A bit closer to home, CSIRO research scientist Ruhi Humphries has recently returned from a separate research trip onboard the RV Investigator, which also ventured into the vast, icy waters of the Southern Ocean. He, too, is interested in the region's uniquely fresh air, not just for clouds but for what it can tell us about the impacts of human activity on the atmosphere. "In a city, you would have lots of different sources of pollution. So you've got your cars that are spewing out CO2 and particles, and all your industry." This clean air over the Southern Ocean gives scientists a better idea of the bigger picture of climate change, away from pollution. "It's what we call baseline air," he said. "If you are going on a diet, you need to know your before weight so you can figure out your after weight and how much you've lost. "And for climate change, if we want to understand our impact and how to mitigate that effectively, we need to know what the atmosphere looks like without that pollution. "So, we have to find a location on the planet, which is as clean as possible … so then we can understand what the impact of humans is." This data has been captured in north-west Tasmania, at the Kennaook/Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station, for nearly 50 years. But now, Dr Humphries and his team have the opportunity to cross-check how fresh that air is with the use of state-of-the-art technology. "We've always assumed … that the air that we measured there is representative of that really distant Southern Ocean air," he said. "But now … we're taking the ship south-west, down into the Southern Ocean, to test how far Kennaook/Cape Grim is representative of that baseline air." According to both Dr Humphries and Ms Bekemeier, the research taking place in the Southern Ocean is a key part of understanding the impacts of climate change globally. "The Southern Ocean is vital to the future of our planet," Ms Bekemeier said. "Changes to this region will have impacts for the entire planet; impacts on the Antarctic circulations, impacts on the polar jet stream, impacts on climate around the world, impacts on weather in Australia." It's for this reason that both Ms Bekemeier and Dr Humphries say it's important the whole world works together, as part of a global endeavour to advance climate science. "We're part of global monitoring networks, and we're doing global climate models." For Ms Bekemeier, this hits particularly close to home. Her role on the Southern Ocean voyage was funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF). The NSF has faced significant funding cuts this year under the Trump administration, with hundreds of research grants terminated. "I am really devastated to see what is happening to climate science and science in general in the United States and the gutting of the US Antarctic program," she said. "I'm grateful that we have colleagues that can continue this work because we might not be able to do it in our own country."
ABC News
a day ago
- ABC News
Study backing OsteoStrong 'bone-strengthening' exercise program should be retracted: experts
A study claiming a popular exercise regimen called OsteoStrong can help strengthen bones in post-menopausal women has been criticised by scientists, with some saying it should never have been published. The research, which was accepted for publication in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism (JCEM) in February this year, was hailed as "groundbreaking" by the international franchise behind the exercise program. "The acceptance of this research in a prestigious, peer-reviewed medical journal like JCEM is a monumental step in validating OsteoStrong as a science-backed solution for osteoporosis management," the company said in a press release at the time. But the study has since attracted international criticism, with questions being raised about its design, data analysis and conclusions. "We really questioned the [journal] editor on how this paper got through the peer-review process," said Robin Daly, a researcher in exercise and ageing at Deakin University. The study examined the effectiveness of the OsteoStrong program, which was described as "a bone-strengthening system implementing four devices and incorporating brief (10-minute), weekly, low-impact, and high-intensity osteogenic loading exercises" in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. The researchers separated 147 women into two groups. One group did the program and the other did not. The group that did the exercise program was further divided into two groups, one of which was on bone-strengthening medication and one that was not. Measures of bone strength were carried out at the start and end of the 12-month trial. The study claimed bone density was improved in women who did OsteoStrong (compared to those who didn't), and that among participants who were also on medication, it enhanced the effect of the drugs. "This is the first study that clearly demonstrates benefit" from the OsteoStrong program, the researchers wrote. But among numerous concerns expressed by critics are that the clinical trial had no clear statistical plan, failed to reduce the risk of bias, had no ethical approval and was not registered online for transparency. According to Professor Daly, "the claims [of the study] are totally misleading. They're not supported by the data". He said the way the study was designed and its results were analysed made it difficult to conclude anything. "The whole paper is extremely difficult to interpret. Professor Daly and University of Waterloo bone researcher Lora Giangregoria sent a letter to the editor of the journal calling for the study's retraction. Professor Giangregoria was concerned that publicity of the study's findings would lead people to make uninformed decisions about the OsteoStrong program. "The way that they present the statistics actually doesn't make any sense," she said. "The claims made in the study were not appropriate." Other experts have also expressed concern about the failure of the study to adhere to normal standards and guidelines for clinical trials. They were concerned the clinical trial was not registered, a practice that helps make research more transparent, and prevent publication bias. It also lacked appropriate ethics approval and there were "potential unacknowledged conflicts of interest", Professor Daly added. In March this year, Osteoporosis Canada expressed concern about the study and the evidence base for the OsteoStrong program. In a statement, also co-authored by Professor Giangregoria, the organisation said: … Osteoporosis Canada cannot support recommendations regarding its use for fracture prevention based on existing research. Chris Maher, director of the University of Sydney Institute for Musculoskeletal Health, agreed with the concerns raised about the study. "That study is flawed and does not provide believable evidence on the effect of OsteoStrong," Professor Maher said. He pointed specifically to the lack of registration and ethical clearance. "It therefore does not conform to the Declaration of Helsinki, so it has no standing in medical science and should never have been published." Maria Fiatarone Singh, a University of Sydney geriatrician who researches the impacts of exercise, was also highly critical of the study. "I think it is too flawed to draw any conclusions," she commented by email. "It is shocking that the editors allowed this to be published in a peer-reviewed journal and it indeed should be retracted and re-analysed at the very least." Shoshana Sztal-Mazer, an endocrinologist and expert in bone disease at Alfred Health in Melbourne, said the principle behind OsteoStrong was "plausible". The company states its system relies on "osteogenic loading", which is where force on your bones stimulates them to grow stronger. "Physiologically it makes sense," Dr Sztal-Mazer said. But she agreed there were concerns about the study. "It doesn't look like it was rigorously conducted. One of the major sources of bias in the study, according to critics, was allowing patients to choose which group they were in, Professor Fiatarone Singh said. "It is well known that people who choose exercise are healthier and at less risk of disease for numerous reasons than sedentary individuals or those who choose a non-exercise control condition when given a choice." In a statement provided to the ABC, the Endocrine Society, which publishes the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, said "we recognise the shortcomings in the research's design and analyses as reported in the online accepted manuscript. "Following a detailed editorial assessment, we confirmed the need for significant revisions." The authors of the study are in the process of submitting a corrected version of the paper, the statement added. OsteoStrong was approached for comment, but did not respond specifically to concerns raised by Osteoporosis Canada and others. Instead, Perry Eckert, managing director of OsteoStrong Australia, pointed to recent unpublished research partly sponsored by the company. According to Mr Eckert, the study showed "a significant improvement" in bone mineral density and overall strength in 38 postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Healthy Bones Australia endorses exercise as an important part of reducing bone loss in older age. But most trials on exercise programs to strengthen bones are small compared to those studying pharmaceuticals, so the evidence for exercise is not as strong as that for drugs. The majority of experts the ABC spoke to were not convinced at this stage exercise could reverse bone mineral density loss that occurs in post-menopausal women, although it might slow down the rate of loss. But despite there being better evidence behind the use of medications to increase bone density, Dr Sztal-Mazer prescribes exercise as well as medications to help stave off bone loss in this age group. "Exercise is important as a part of holistic care for osteoporosis and generally for healthy bones." As well any impact on bone density, the right kind of exercise — along with adequate vitamin D, calcium and other nutrients — plays a key role in preventing fractures, Dr Sztal-Mazer said. Exercise can also improve strength and balance, which can also help prevent falls, the main cause of bone fragility fractures. But, Dr Sztal-Mazer cautions, guidelines for exercise used by physiotherapists and exercise physiologists to manage osteoporosis suggests a much bigger time commitment is required than that proposed by OsteoStrong.
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