HBO moochers rejoice: You still have a little time before the Max password-sharing crackdown begins
Warner Bros. Discovery is putting a stop to password mooching — eventually.
HBO's parent company is now telling users that they need their own Max accounts to catch up on "The White Lotus." WBD wants users to make their own accounts, or get their account holder to pay an extra $8 per month to give them access.
Netflix popularized that "paid sharing" strategy to great success, and Disney is doing the same.
But those freeloading off their friend's account don't have to reach for their credit cards just yet. Although WBD is starting to gently encourage freeloaders to pay up, executives said they won't play hardball for a while.
"It's very soft messaging that will start getting firmer and more visible to subscribers over the months to come," WBD global streaming head JB Perrette said on the company's earnings call Thursday.
This paid-sharing initiative has a 12- to 18-month timeline, Perrette said. It's starting in the US and will move next year to the rest of the world, where Max is still rolling out.
Anti-mooching messaging will get "more assertive" later this year and in early 2026, Perrette said.
Paid sharing could boost Max subscribers
WBD isn't alone in following Netflix's lead, as NBC is warning Peacock subscribers not to share passwords with their friends. Paramount, Amazon, and Apple haven't done so yet, but certainly could if Disney and WBD's paid-sharing strategies pay off.
Max has made progress since its launch five years ago and rebrand from HBO Max in 2023. WBD has 57.6 million streaming subscribers in the US, up about 5 million from a year ago. The company has also grown its global customer base by more than 22 million customers, though that's largely due to rollouts in Southeast Asia and Europe.
Streaming advertising revenue surged 35% from last year in the first quarter.
A paid-sharing rollout could further boost WBD's streaming subscriber count, though engagement — and therefore advertising — could take a hit if freeloaders conclude that Max isn't worth paying for.
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Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
AppLovin: The advertising giant in the making
Introduction AppLovin is a premier mobile technology company that has transitioned from a mobile gaming developer to a full-fledged app marketing and monetization platform. It was established in 2012 and is based in Palo Alto, California. The company operates two main business units: Software Platform and Apps. The Software Platform, which is driven by the AI-based AXON engine, is aimed at mobile app developers and it provides them with cutting-edge solutions like user acquisition, monetization, and analytics. This platform is responsible for handling billions of ad requests on a daily basis, as it leverages machine learning algorithms to improve campaign performance and to increase revenue for both advertisers and publishers. Among the key products offered are the MAX mediation platform which is the instrument that allows publishers to operate several ad networks with a single integration, and thorough user acquisition tools that are specifically designed for developers to grow their user bases at the shortest time possible. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Sign with APP. Key Growth Drivers Machine Learning and AI-Powered Optimization The AXON platform that is powered by AppLovin's sophisticated machine learning infrastructure, which is its own product, is the genetic code of the tech advantage of the company. The proprietary AI engine that the company uses, being at the heart of the whole process, is in charge of the incredible computational task of processing a diverse range of data to make real-time decisions on the best ad placements, user acquisition campaigns, and monetization strategies available. By examining the engagement metrics and conversion data, the system constantly improves the targeting accuracy and campaign efficiency besides getting insight from user behavior patterns. This exceptional efficiency, which allows advertisers to make more informed bids on ad inventory while publishers to generate more revenue, is based on the system's predictive capabilities. The platform's establishment to process and learn from billions of pieces of data each day creates a significant barrier for other competitors, as it is developed better with more available data. AXON is the neural network that drives the whole platform with deep learning technology, which is used to explore the user data in a way that traditional analysis tools would not be able to. That is to say, this platform is the most modern digital solution that performs the task of reinforcement learning, where the smart algorithms are given real-time feedback with optimal ad placement and bidding decisions generated automatically. This automated optimization function, which in reality results in the use of less human resources, is achieved compared to the delivering of impressive results using a set of predefined rules. Real-Time Bidding and Programmatic Infrastructure AppLovin has the technology stack including high-performance real-time bidding (RTB) infrastructure capable of processing hundreds of thousands of bid requests per second with sub-100 millisecond response times. This is a low-latency system for mobile advertising where split-second decisions are the determinants of campaign success. The distributed architecture of the platform ensures global scalability and uniform performance, despite different geographic regions. Moreover, the programmatic advertising technology platform includes header bidding alongside the integration allowing publishers to increase their revenue through enabling multi-demand sources to compete for the same inventory simultaneously. The system's complex auction mechanics are not only concerned with bid prices but also take into account user experience, ad quality, and long-term value optimization. However, Applovin's server-side integration mechanisms spare the technical brunt of application developers while presenting centralized data collection and analysis techniques. This approach is compared to client-side implementations, which need multiple SDK integrations, resulting in longer app latency and poor user experience. Data Analytics and Attribution Technology The advanced data analytics structure of the company processes the huge amounts of data it collects to find insights that are valuable for both the advertisers and publishers. More advanced attribution models, in turn, allow for better measurement of the user paths across multiple touchpoints, which translates into higher confidence in the budget allocation decisions. The two ways to attribute the platform's capability are probabilistic and deterministic, which are useful for a much dense privacy environment. AppLovin's analytics tool provides sophisticated analysis of cohorts, predicting lifetime value, and churn modeling to the app developers in an effort to enhance the user acquisition process. The platform's ability to connect the costs of acquiring new users with the value they bring over time means it can help optimize return on ad investment (ROAS) more than measuring just installs can. The company's commitment to using privacy-friendly methods in data collection and analysis ensures that it is well-prepared for the ever-changing legal landscape. Data confidentiality and federated learning methods, together with innovative approaches in data collection, will facilitate users' right to privacy, and continue the optimization process by respecting regulatory mandates. Competition from Technology Giants AppLovin is up against robust competition from technology companies that are using their resources and networks. Google, through its AdMob platform and Google Ads ecosystem, is probably the strongest rival. Google's interconnectedness with Android, YouTube, and its advertising network turned it into a powerhouse that promises premium exposure and fine contracts. Facebook (Meta), through its Audience Network along with the vast amount of data from social media, which makes it possible for precise user targeting and cross-platform campaign management, is another relevant competitor. Apple's recent privacy policies, namely, App Tracking Transparency (ATT), are a mixed-source benefit in the competition scene. The fact is that these issues eliminate some of the attribution and targeting capabilities for a while but at the same time, that would bring balance to the situation by lessening the data advantages that some of the competitors had before. The way to deal with this threat is a concentration on those areas where the giants might not be as swift or/and comprehensive. The deep dive on the mobile gaming and app monetization areas by the company grants the right for more in-depth verticals and exactly tailor-made solutions rather than platform companies do. The optimization brought along with the AXON platform's automatic algorithms for the mobile app environment often results in better performance than generic ad solvers in the scope of new user quality and monetization efficiency. Competition from Specialist Ad Tech Companies The mobile advertising game is competitive with the participation of many niche players, each of whom has identified a particular slice of the market. Unity Technologies is one of them, in particular, because it uses its Unity Ads platform to operate in the same arena as mobile gaming ads and even leverage its game development engine to provide integrated advertising. IronSource (now part of Unity) used to be a significant adversary with its all-in-one platform that handled app monetization and user acquisition comprehensively. Chartboost has a very specific operation model that enables it to focus only on mobile game advertising, which includes direct publisher relationships and extensive knowledge of the gaming industry. Vungle (now part of Liftoff) is a firm that, through its video ad solutions, has added strong creative optimization capabilities. These companies are mostly known for their vibrant industry knowledge and long-standing partnerships defined within the industry sectors. However, these specialized players are giving a tough time with their niche focus, AppLovin is competing against them by bringing extra scale and high-level technology. The yield of billions and billions of ad requests daily makes the company to have the capacity of more effective machine learning optimizationin and standard machine learning schemes. AppLovin's user acquisition, monetization, and analytics in one solution platform and the simplicity of not having to carry out multiple integrations delivers accessibility and effectiveness over single point solutions that require integrations. Strengthened by the right acquisitions, the company is in a stronger position as it has consolidated its market share, and the potential competition was eliminated. The MoPub acquisition from Twitter gave AppLovin a digital publisher relationship and mediation capabilities while other small acquisitions enriched the tech stack and human resources, thus enhancing the platform. Key Risks Risks of Platform Dependency and Ecosystem Control AppLovin is at a high risk concerning the technological factors stemming from its reliance on mobile platforms governed by Apple and Google. Any iOS and Android platform policy changes can, in a matter of seconds, thus alter the way AppLovin operates. The real-time impact of the implementation of Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework proved this vulnerability when mobile advertisers immediately lost the ability to accurately attribute and target their ads. The prospective platform issues may involve more rigorous SDK approval processes, more privacy restrictions, or modified app store policies that will limit the advertising functionality altogether. For instance, the introduction of Private Relay in iOS 17 and the addition of enhanced tracking protection greatly narrow data collection capabilities. Although the Privacy Sandbox initiative from Android is still in progress, it poses a serious risk of redefining the way mobile advertising attribution and targeting are done. The technical risk branch out to the potential scenarios of platform fragmentation in which different versions of iOS or Android impose different privacy and advertising restrictions. AppLovin's single platform strategy is rendered more complex as it needs to reconcile with the different technical requirements caused by the braid of platform versions and geographic regions with various regulatory frameworks. Algorithmic and Machine Learning Model Vulnerabilities AXON's machine learning algorithms are the backbone of AppLovin's business edge as they grant a strongly concentrated technical risk around model performance and accuracy. The susceptibility of machine learning models to concept drift, where changing user behavior patterns or market conditions reduce the effectiveness of the model over time, is one of the most common reasons for this fall. The constant mutation of the mobile advertising ecosystem can make the previously useful alphas to be of no use whatsoever. Model bias is another highlight technical risk, this is when the algorithms inadvertently discriminate against some user segments or app categories, which in turn could result in regulatory violations or suboptimal performance outcomes. Attacks that are deceitful to the machine learning systems could influence either the bidding algorithms or the attribution models, which will in turn lead to financial losses and site degradation. The scenario of being data poisoned where the hackers introduce the useless and malicious data into the training datasets has the detrimental effect of degrading the performance of the models or creating vulnerabilities which can be exploited. The scale at which AppLovin is processing data, daily handling over billions of events, is making it more difficult to ensure comprehensive data validation while maintaining the real-time processing needs. The most serious of the risks that are created through overfitting is the one that comes from the models completely specializing in what has been done historically, thereby rendering the generalization capacities for new market conditions or user behaviors very weak. The high focus on the gaming vertical that has led to a competitive advantage could be detrimental if the gaming industry undergoes a drastic change. Valuation The forward P/E ratios for AppLovin portray impressive earnings acceleration with the non-GAAP P/E declining from 45.93x (FY1) to 27.69x (FY3), which suggests an impressive earnings increase, outstripping all but one peer company. It is the market's strong response that makes the compression evident, showing that it appreciates AppLovin's ability to grow the business while also keeping profitability up. The company's PEG ratios of 0.94 (non-GAAP forward) and 0.31 (GAAP TTM) are at a high level with respect to the growth rates making the stock very attractive, at least, it is significantly more attractive than peers like Adobe (1.35) and Cadence (3.09). This fact shows that the value of AppLovin is off the charts due to its markdown price based on its growth potential, which is further elaborated by the large upside that is now available. In contrast to industry rivals, AppLovin's valuation metrics look realistic even if the absolute P/E ratios are higher. Adobe and Cadence declare lesser P/E compression over time, while AppLovin shows signs of higher earnings growth. The absence of profit for a company like MasterCard (negative P/Es) contrasts sharply with AppLovin's prevailing profits in the ad-tech sector. Guru Holdings Lowenstein's 17.19% stake which is equivalent to $762.85 million shows tremendous conviction, especially if we take into consideration the average buy price that he had of $75.06, which is representing a 423.6% gain. Lowenstein's convincing position, which is large in size and yields excellent returns, is an evidence of AppLovin's strategic execution and its growth path. The 12.86% increase in the holdings that Lowenstein took just lately proves that he still has confidence in the company despite the stock's larger rise, which in turn shows that the bottom line is the company's fundamentals rather than the ups and downs of the market. Resnick's 13.47% stake ($740.26M) with an average cost basis of $49.41 (695.4% gain) represents even earlier conviction in AppLovin's transformation story. The stability of his holdings (0% recent change) indicates dissatisfaction with current positioning while maintaining long-term conviction. Both managers' five-star ratings and substantial outperformance demonstrate their investment expertise. ConclusionAppLovin faces strong competition from technology companies like Google, Facebook, and Apple. Google's AdMob platform and Ads ecosystem, coupled with its interconnectedness with Android, YouTube, and its advertising network, offer premium exposure and fine contracts. Facebook's Audience Network and vast data from social media enable precise user targeting and cross-platform campaign management. Apple's recent privacy policies, App Tracking Transparency (ATT), provide mixed-source benefits in the competition scene, but may limit data advantages. To address this threat, AppLovin focuses on mobile gaming and app monetization areas, offering tailored solutions rather than generic ad solvers. The AXON platform's automatic algorithms for the mobile app environment often result in better performance than generic ad solvers in terms of user quality and monetization efficiency. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio
Forbes
2 days ago
- Forbes
As Shares Skyrocket, Will Creator Deals Drive Netflix's Next Growth Run?
(Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images) Netflix has been on an epic stock market run the past year, share prices up 81% to nestle comfortably above $1,200 apiece as it reaps the rewards of definitively winning the Streaming Wars of the past several years, with analysts setting target prices as high as $1,600. Give credit to management's willingness to pivot, after a disastrous Q1 earnings call three years ago, into ad-supported tiers, a password crackdown, videogame and live events/venues initiatives, and investments in local productions in 50 centers around the world. It's paid off massively for the company and its investors. This week saw Pivotal Research set a Street-high target price of $1,600 for Netflix shares. Netflix shares have skyrocketed the past 12 months, to north of $1,200 a piece But where does the streaming giant go from here if it wants to keep driving growth? The ad tier is launched, and growing slowly, but already bringing in higher average revenue per user than Netflix's traditional ad-free offerings. The password crackdown's boost to subscriber growth is likely largely exhausted, though we won't know going forward, because the company stopped r0utinely reporting subscriber adds before the last earnings call. In that call, the company said it added a whopping 13 million subscribers to puff the global total to 301 million, far larger than any competitor. So where to go to grow? Analysts have some thoughts, mostly about the vast collection of wildly diverse talent pumping out episodes on YouTube and other social media, receiving a share of ad revenue and otherwise monetizing their productions with merchandise, sponsorships, live events and other strategies. That approach has paid off massively for Alphabet-owned YouTube. Nielsen's The Gauge estimates more than 12% of total watch time is devoted to YouTube programming. Roku released stats that were even higher, as much as 18% of view time. Wells Fargo analysts released a note earlier in the week setting a $1,500 target price for Netflix, but suggesting it find ways to be a bit more like YouTube. Wells Fargo Sr. Equity Analyst Steven Cahall said Friday in a CNBC interview that YouTube content, which costs YouTube nothing on the front end, is increasingly grabbing view time with young and even middle-aged consumers. And that's exactly the kind of programming Netflix should be adding to its portfolio. 'Some of this very, very high value, professional short-form seems like a natural in-between where it still has a big impact on consumers but it's not quite the really short, mobile-native, user-generated content,' Cahall said. To grab some of that view time back, Netflix should take a page out of its own playbook from about a decade ago, when it cut nine-figure exclusive deals with prominent showrunners in traditional television such as Shonda Rhimes and Ryan Murphy, Cahall said. The splashy deals put the industry on notice about Netflix's ambitions to create high-quality premium content that could contend with anything on broadcast or cable. 'The argument here is they can do the same thing," Cahall said. 'They can go find these really large-scale creators who put a lot of content on YouTube, get a lot of views, and make a lot of money, and they can say, 'Hey, come to Netflix, you have the same size audience. We'll pay you money, and you don't have to take a risk on advertising.' Such deals will 'take money,' though nothing like those Rhimes and Murphy deals of a decade ago. More importantly, Cahall said, 'it's not the same risk profile.' The creators bring their own audience, and deep knowledge about how to connect with and nurture that audience, removing most of the risk of partnering with them. Certainly, there are plenty of big, long-time online creators who are producing good-quality content at remarkable velocity. In recent months, I've interviewed or moderated panels with leaders from such long-time venues as Smosh, Dhar Mann Studios, Buzzfeed Studios, and Dhar Mann CEO Sean Atkins, a long-time cable TV veteran, said he gives a few tours a week of the company's extensive production studios in Burbank, Calif., just a couple of miles from the studio lots of Warner Bros., Disney and NBCUniversal. There's an 'oh, sh--' moment on the tour for most of the folks, Atkins said, when they see Dhar Mann's operations are sprawling enough to need the same golf carts to get around the grounds as on the traditional studios. At last week's StreamTV Show conference in Denver, I interviewed Trey Kennedy, an Oklahoma-based comedian who started telling six-second jokes on the long-gone social-video site Vine. Kennedy has long since migrated to TikTok and YouTube for his humor, building an audience big enough that he cut a deal with Hulu for a one-hour comedy special released in January. He has a national comedy tour set for the fall. Also at The StreamTV Show, I interviewed Laura Martin, managing director and sr. internet & media analyst for Needham & Co. To her mind, the 100-plus exhibitors and dozens of niche networks on display at the conference are largely ignored by Wall Street because they're not able to compete at a big enough scale with the two companies that matter most, Amazon and YouTube. Amazon's links between advertising and directly selling those advertised products to its couple of a hundred million or so Prime Video subscribers make it one powerful path for the future of video. And YouTube has married oceans of user-generated content with television's highest-value programming, the NFL, which is available through YouTube TV. 'On the content side, they're sort of blurring the lines, we sort of think that's where the world is going writ large,' Martin said. Wall Street looks at the smaller players and wonders, 'Why aren't you talking about short-form, omni-device and influencers, plus -premium content. There's a real disconnect." Martin said both Paramount Global and Warner Bros. Discovery are stuck in a 'distracted' place. Paramount is trying to negotiated a lawsuit settlement directly with President Donald Trump over alleged 'election interference' for editing a Kamala Harris interview last fall on 60 Minutes. The delays in settling that suit are in danger of putting controlling shareholder Shari Redstone's National Amusements in default before it can complete an $8 billion sale to a group led by David Ellison and Skydance Entertainment. WBD, meanwhile, announced last week that it would go ahead with a widely expected split of the company, putting its legacy cable channels such as CNN, TNT, TBS, and Discovery in one unit, along with most of WBD's $34 billion in debt and a share of the spun-off Studios & Streaming unit. That latter group would include the Max (soon to be renamed HBO Max) streaming service and WBD's production studios for film, TV and games. Shepherding that split to reality will leave WBD leadership distracted for a year, Martin estimated, then will have to wait another year before doing any deals, because of tax-minimization strategies. 'I think it's the wrong strategic move,' Martin said. 'We're not going to be talk about either of those companies for the next two or three years." That leaves a 'competitive set' of serious streaming players of just four: Netflix, Amazon, Alphabet/YouTube, and Disney. 'The question will be if Disney is too small to compete,' Martin said. 'Its (market valuation) is $200 billion, Netflix is $500 billion and the rest are more than $2 trillion.' For Netflix, grabbing more content from YouTube's stable might just be a way to keep driving growth, and perhaps even slightly slowing the YouTube juggernaut, mostly by being a bit more like what YouTube has become.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
Warner Bros. Discovery (NasdaqGS:WBD) To Split After 60% Fall; Seeks Investors
Warner Bros. Discovery has announced its decision to split into two separate public companies, a major shift in strategy aiming to focus on streaming growth while housing underperforming cable channels separately. This decision follows a significant decline in stock value since the merger with Warner Media. Over the past month, the company's stock rose 14%, which might align with a broader market sentiment, also up during this period. Events such as Amazon Prime's partnership for early film screenings and new product launches like the "Harry Potter™ Pinball" might add incremental interest in the stock but are unlikely to have drastically influenced this change. We've discovered 1 weakness for Warner Bros. Discovery that you should be aware of before investing here. Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward. The recent decision by Warner Bros. Discovery to split into two public companies may potentially affect its strategic plans and earnings forecasts. By focusing one entity on streaming and separating underperforming cable divisions, the aim is to enhance growth and stabilize revenue streams, particularly through Max's international subscriber growth. This structural change could lead to increased direct-to-consumer revenue, as efforts are made to reinforce industry leadership while addressing debt and cost challenges. Over the past year, Warner Bros. Discovery's total return, including share price gains and dividends, was 34.57%. However, when compared with the longer-term period, it underperformed the US Entertainment industry, which returned 62.4% over the same timeframe. Nonetheless, the company's shares did outpace the broader US market, which returned 11.2% during the last year. In terms of the recent 14% increase in share value in the past month, this movement provides context to the company's current position relative to analyst price targets. With the share price sitting at US$8.43, it remains approximately 36.7% below the consensus target of US$13.19. This discount suggests that investors may be waiting to see evidence of positive impacts on revenue and net earnings before aligning more closely with analyst expectations. Our comprehensive valuation report raises the possibility that Warner Bros. Discovery is priced lower than what may be justified by its financials. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include NasdaqGS:WBD. This article was originally published by Simply Wall St. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
