Don't expect the market to go anywhere this summer, says JPMorgan
Looking for another leg higher in stocks this summer? JPMorgan thinks investors should pump the breaks. Fabio Bassi, the bank's head of cross-asset strategy, warned the S & P 500 could "remain rangebound, with limited short-term upside." He added: "The rally to our bull case scenario of 5,800 for S & P 500 has played out, but from here we expect a consolidation and range-bound dynamic." Indeed, the S & P 500 has surged 20% since hitting an intraday low on April 7, as investor sentiment recovered after the "liberation day" tariff shock that sent global markets tumbling. The benchmark closed Friday's session at 5,802.82 (U.S. markets were closed Monday due to the Memorial Day holiday). .SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date The protectionist U.S. trade stance raised concern of persistent inflation — leading investors to lower their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. CME Group's FedWatch tool shows traders see the central bank lowering rates twice in 2025. They expected at least three rate cuts when the year began. "The revival of the 'higher for longer' narrative, coupled with reduced tariff concerns, is likely to constrain the expansion of equity leadership," Bassi wrote. "Investors are expected to continue paying a premium for high-quality growth companies, resulting in an unhealthy concentration within the tech sector and the Mag7." The strategist recommended clients hedge against potential downside by buying call options on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) , essentially betting Wall Street's "fear gauge" will rise. But Wall Street is set to begin the shortened trading week on a strong note. S & P 500 futures popped more than 1% after President Donald Trump delayed a 50% levy on European goods until July. However, those gains are likely short lived, if JPMorgan's assessment is correct. Elsewhere Tuesday morning on Wall Street, Barclays became the first shop on Wall Street to downgrade CoreWeave since its IPO. The bank lowered its rating on the stock to neutral from overweight. The stock nevertheless added another 4% in premarket trading. "With its voice-A.I platform, SoundHound is a direct play on the A.I revolution," analyst James Fish wrote.
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