What North Korea's New Russian Weapons Tech Means for South Korea

It's not just Ukraine that is now facing the low, buzzing hum of Iranian-designed explosive drones. It is the U.S.'s key allies in Asia, Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has declared.
"This must be addressed now—not when thousands of upgraded Shahed drones and ballistic missiles begin to threaten Seoul and Tokyo," the Ukrainian leader said on June 10.
Shahed drones, a brainchild of Tehran, have borne down on Ukrainian air defenses since the early months of the full-scale war Russia launched in February 2022. While slow-moving, the uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), also known as Geran drones, are difficult for Ukraine's strained air defenses to detect.
They're known for their low and distinctive buzzing sound that signals they're closing in on a target, ferrying along warheads that can shatter or explode. The scale of attacks on Ukraine varies, but Kyiv said Moscow launched 479 UAVs, including Shaheds, at the country in one night earlier this month.
Russia has now agreed to help North Korea set up sites on the divided peninsula to manufacture Shahed drones, said Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Kyiv's GUR military intelligence agency.
"It will for sure bring changes in the military balance in the region between North Korea and South Korea," the intelligence chief told The War Zone outlet.
Experts agree. "This is gravely concerning," William Alberque, a visiting fellow at the Henry L. Stimson and a former director of NATO's Arms Control, Disarmament and WMD Non-Proliferation Center, previously said.
Drones aren't the only thing North Korea is getting from Russia. Becoming embroiled in the Ukraine war—and turning into the only country outside the two warring nations to commit troops to the front line—has bought North Korea an economic and military hand-up from Russia, observers say.
Western intelligence suggests North Korea is receiving help with its advanced missiles, space and nuclear programs from Russia, on top of Ukraine's assessment of new drone factories. Russia and North Korea announced a mutual defense pact in June 2024, which was inked in November.
While South Korea is not yet prepared for this new threat from its northern neighbor, it won't be long before Seoul gets there, analysts say.
North Korea has contributed three major things to Russia's war effort against Ukraine: Troops, ammunition and missiles.
Pyongyang sent roughly 11,000 of its troops to Russia's western Kursk region late last year to help push Ukrainian forces that controlled a chunk of territory over the border back to Ukrainian soil. U.K. military intelligence assessed this month that the North Korean forces were replenished with some limited reinforcements, but that more than 6,000 of the soldiers had been killed or injured.
Assessments of how well the troops performed varied wildly. Some reports suggested the soldiers were little more than "cannon fodder" and ill-prepared for drone-heavy combat, while others described the fighters hailing from a heavily militarized society as disciplined, in good shape and adept with weapons.
Either way, Pyongyang is learning in a way Seoul is not. "The South Korean military's relative lack of combat experience has to be mentioned, especially given that North Korean forces are now gaining meaningful experience fighting a well-equipped conventional enemy in Ukraine," said Jacob Parakilas, research leader for defense strategy, policy and capabilities at the European branch of the Rand think tank.
The combat experience and the technological expertise North Korea is thought to be accruing "pose a new challenge to South Korea," added Ramon Pacheco Pardo, professor of international relations at King's College London.
This will "accelerate North Korea's development of its own military capabilities, and even though South Korea is already working on its own preparedness against them, it lacks the battlefield experience that the North Korea army is gaining," he told Newsweek.
Missiles
North Korea has supplied short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, keeping up the stockpiles to fire on Ukraine.
Ukraine's air force frequently reports the use of North Korea's KN-23, also known as Hwasong-11, short-range ballistic missiles, in overnight strikes.
Ukrainian officials had described the earlier iterations of the KN-23 as deeply unreliable and unable to strike its targets consistently. But the Hwasong-11 of mid-2025 is an "absolutely different missile," and much more accurate, Budanov said.
The KN-23 is similar to Russia's SS-26 ballistic missile, "so it makes sense that Russia is able to rapidly fix shortcomings in North Korea's designs," Alberque told Newsweek. SS-26 is the NATO moniker for Moscow's Iskander-M mobile short-range ballistic missile system.
North Korea's improved designs are "concerning," he added, despite South Korea's strong web of air defenses.
Air defenses can be overwhelmed by sheer numbers of incoming threats if there are more targets to intercept than interceptor missiles in launchers. Some of North Korea's factories, mainly those producing weapons and ammunition, are operating at "full capacity," South Korea's then-defense minister, Shin Won-sik, said in February 2024.
"If the North Korean missiles that make it through are more accurate and capable, it's a fairly substantial problem for the South," Alberque said.
Drones
The Ukraine war has been a crucible for drone advancement. "The longer this war continues on our territory, the more warfare technologies evolve, and the greater the threat will be to everyone," Zelensky said earlier this month.
"As of today, North Korea likely has [the] advantage, and that advantage will grow exponentially over the next year," Alberque added.
Pyongyang has already sent drones over the border and into South Korea's airspace. Seoul established a drone-focused command in September 2023, not long after five drones made it into the South's territory in late 2022. South Korea's military later said one of the drones had made it into a no-fly zone around the presidential office in the capital.
"I do not believe that South Korea is ready right now, but they are taking some steps, including creating structures and working with industry, and they do have time to study and prepare; however, not too much time," Alberque said. "South Korea has a lot of work to do."
Experts say Seoul should be paying close attention to how drones have been used in Ukraine, as well as in the Middle East. Any information funneled from Ukraine can feed into South Korea's defenses, Alberque added.
Pyongyang has adopted an increasingly belligerent tone toward South Korea, sharply departing from the long-held policy of reunification with the south and doubling down on anti-Washington rhetoric.
North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, put the country's industry on a war footing, pumping out weapons as Pyongyang committed to building a large, modern military.
South Korea has very capable forces in its own right, supported by a defense industry that is rapidly making a name for itself.
It's got a very clearly defined purpose, too. "The South Korean armed forces have one primary mission and focus, which is maintaining the ability to win a war with the North," said Parakilas.
Analysts say there are some areas where South Korea has the upper hand. "South Korea still has a technological advantage over North Korea plus the support of its ally, the U.S., which Russia cannot match in terms of technological development," said Pacheco Pardo.
How the U.S. slots in has a significant impact on how South Korea would fight the North, said Alberque. "Whether or not they have the full support of the American military makes a pretty substantial difference to planning," he added.
Another of South Korea's strengths is its navy. Seoul's capabilities outweigh Pyongyang's, Parakilas said, adding North Korea won't be able to pull any real naval experience from the land war in Ukraine.
"Of the capabilities that Moscow seems to be helping Pyongyang with, the surface fleet is probably the least worrisome," said Parakilas.
In May, North Korea tried to launch a new destroyer at its northeastern Chongjin port—an ill-fated attempt state media reported ended in a "serious accident."
The 5,000-ton warship was damaged "due to inexperienced command and operational carelessness," state media reported.
It was an unusually candid public assessment for a country seeking to exude military strength. Kim, who was present for the bungled launch, irately denounced the incident as "criminal." At least four North Korean officials were arrested.
North Korea said in mid-June the formerly capsized ship had been successfully relaunched.
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Newsweek

14 minutes ago

• Newsweek

Is Donald Trump Considering Tactical Nukes Against Iran? What We Know

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Yahoo

14 minutes ago

• Yahoo

Yemen's Houthis mull how they can help ally Iran against Israel

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The Hill

29 minutes ago

• The Hill

What happens if Iran falls? Nothing good.

Since Israel launched its campaign against Iran, the whispers of regime change have swelled into roars. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now openly entertain the possibility of removing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Western press, as usual, salivates. Opinion writers speak of 'freedom,' of 'liberation,' of 'a new democratic dawn.' They should know better. We all should. This isn't the first time America has overthrown a government in Tehran. In 1953, the CIA helped orchestrate the ousting of Mohammad Mossadegh — a democratically elected prime minister who had the audacity to nationalize Iran's oil. That coup installed the Shah, a brutal monarch who fed dissidents into the meat grinder of SAVAK, his secret police. Torture chambers, disappearances, censorship — the entire Cold War authoritarian playbook was handed to Tehran on U.S. government stationery. That regime change led not to liberty, but to the Islamic Revolution of 1979. In short: the last time America meddled, it turned a secular democracy into a theocratic furnace. We have made this mistake before, and we are about to make it again. Let's not pretend the fall of the Islamic Republic would yield some Instagram-filtered liberal utopia. That fantasy is for people who read Foreign Affairs magazine like it's a Marvel comic book. The reality? Chaos. Deep, tribal, sectarian chaos. A power vacuum that would make Iraq look smart. If the Iranian regime collapses, the dominoes won't fall politely. Iran isn't just a nation — it's a spider at the center of a vast web of proxy forces and regional entanglements. Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Shia militias in Iraq and Syria — what happens to them when the spider dies? Do they disband? More likely, they go rogue. Unleashed, uncoordinated and angry. They won't sit for peace talks — they'll torch what's left of the map. And these groups aren't ragtag militias. They are disciplined, battle-hardened and ideologically committed. With Tehran gone, they would no longer be restrained by any centralized strategy. They would become freelance war machines, pursuing old vendettas with new ferocity — armed, funded and furious. What about the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps? They are not going to hang up their boots and go quietly into retirement. They are a state within a state, with their own army, economy and ideology. They run ports, banks, and oil fields. They have more institutional muscle than many small nations. If the regime fractures, these war-hardened ideologues will carve out fiefdoms. Think Taliban with oil money. Think Lebanon's civil war, but on steroids. And unlike the Taliban, they don't aim for isolation — they export chaos. Now imagine ten different Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps offshoots, each with its own turf war, trying to seize Iran's critical infrastructure while gunning down ideological rivals. That's not liberation. That's Mogadishu, possibly with nukes on the menu. And then there's the nuclear wildcard. A destabilized Iran, fractured between militias and factions, becomes the world's most terrifying flea market: ballistic missiles for sale, enriched uranium changing hands with no adult supervision. Intelligence services across the globe would scramble to secure loose weapons, only to find they have already vanished into the black market. You think ISIS with a truck bomb is bad? Try Hezbollah with a suitcase nuke. Try a warlord with enriched uranium looking to make a name. The dream of a free Iran could birth a nightmare of a dozen failed mini-republics, each with its own flag, their own grudge and their own appetite for vengeance. Let us not forget what happens when Washington gets high on its own mythology. Regime change never ends with ticker tape and smiling schoolgirls holding flowers. It ends with boots in sand, contractors feeding at the trough, and entire cities flattened because someone in D.C. thought history was a choose-your-own-adventure book. Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan — how many more lessons do we need? How many broken nations do we walk away from before admitting we are not exporters of democracy but arsonists in suits? And those arsonists still don't carry water. They still don't rebuild. They hold press conferences. They slap flags on blown-up convoys. And when it all fails — again — they blame 'tribalism' or 'regional instability' instead of their own god complex. And what of the wider Middle East? Saudi Arabia will see an opening to expand influence, while Turkey eyes northern Iran like a hawk. The Gulf States, already teetering on paranoia, will bankroll private armies and surveillance empires to keep the revolution from spilling over. The Sunni-Shia divide won't heal — it'll erupt. Not a Cold War. A regional wildfire. Religious factions with tanks. Nationalist militias with drones. Oil fields turned battlegrounds. Refugee crises so large they dwarf Syria. All because the West once again mistook force for foresight. Meanwhile, the people of Iran — those who've suffered under theocracy and deserve better — will get caught in the crossfire of empires and ideologues. Again. The same people who rose up in the streets for women's rights, for secularism, for freedom of speech — shot in the back by snipers under Khamenei — will now be crushed between collapsing regimes and foreign opportunists. They'll be the first to die, and the last to be remembered. The truth is ugly, but it must be said: toppling Khamenei won't liberate Iran. It will unhinge it. The Ayatollah's fall, however deserved, would not be a curtain call; it would be an opening act for something far more brutal. Revolution, after all, is rarely the final chapter. It's the prelude to civil war. And civil war in a country with roughly 90 million people, ballistic missiles, and regional reach isn't a footnote. It's a global event. The West doesn't need more regime changes. It needs a regime change of thought. The idea that we can shape the world in our image with drones and platitudes has led to an era of smoldering ruins and refugee camps. This isn't just hubris; it's homicide dressed up as humanitarianism. And the victims aren't dictators. They are doctors, shopkeepers, little girls clutching backpacks instead of rifles. If Iran falls, it won't be freedom that rises. It will be fire, and we lit the match. John Mac Ghlionn is a writer and researcher who explores culture, society and the impact of technology on daily life.