Analysis: After meeting Trump, Syria's new leader must prove his willingness, capability
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (3-R) hosts a conference call between U.S. President Donald Trump (C), U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R-C) and Syrian Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa (2L) on Wednesday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan joined by phone. Photo by Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs/UPI | License Photo
BEIRUT, Lebanon, May 16 (UPI) -- U.S. President Donald Trump's unexpected approach to Syria has presented a significant opportunity for the country's interim president, Ahmad Sharaa, to prove that he can overcome the enormous challenges he faces and lead the war-torn nation toward recovery and stabilization, political analysts and experts said.
Trump's announcement of the cessation of U.S. sanctions, along with his meeting with Sharaa -- a former jihadist who, until recently, was on the U.S. most-wanted list with a $10 million bounty on his head -- marked a turning point and the beginning of a new chapter for Syria nearly six months after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad and his Baathist regime.
With Assad gone, the sanctions were increasingly seen as only prolonging the suffering of the Syrian people and worsening the already catastrophic humanitarian conditions.
Had the sanctions remained in place, Syria would have become a failed state, as it was just weeks away from financial collapse, according to Mouaz Mustafa of the Syrian Emergency Task Force. In an interview with PBS NewsHour, Mustafa warned that continued sanctions would have led to disastrous consequences for both the region and the world.
With layers of sanctions in place since 1979, the process of lifting them remains unclear, and experts say it will take time.
"There is a huge difference between deciding to lift sanctions and actually lifting them," Nanar Hawach, a senior Syria analyst for the International Crisis Group, told UPI.
However, he said it would be "a game-changer" for the economy, giving the green light for the private sector and other stakeholders involved in Syria to step in and "be more bold."
Since taking over after Assad's ouster, Sharaa has repeatedly called for the lifting of U.S. and other international sanctions to allow his country to breathe again. He understands that without funding and financial support, there is little he can do to put Syria back on track.
Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that the continuation of sanctions was hindering the country's ability to recover and move forward.
Yacoubian noted that removing the sanctions would open the way for Gulf countries in particular to "do more" and channel more resources toward Syria's early recovery and stabilization, and eventually, reconstruction -- provided it is done "transparently and in a responsible way."
However, Syria's problems will not be resolved simply by ending the sanctions.
Sharaa is facing "very significant issues," including sectarian tensions, the need for transitional justice, and how to manage the more extreme elements of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS -- the group he led before becoming president -- as well as affiliated factions on which he continues to rely while trying to consolidate control.
"So how will he use this newfound breathing space and the anticipated resources to consolidate his personal power, or rather to put Syria on a more sustainable path toward stability and, ultimately, peace?" Yacoubian asked rhetorically.
She added that he will have to demonstrate a willingness to undertake complex processes related to transitional justice, inclusive governance, and national reconciliation.
According to Hawach, Trump has given Sharaa "the benefit of the doubt," and the new leadership in Damascus will need to seize this opportunity to meet internal and external expectations.
"How willing are they to take bold, risky steps such as distancing themselves from their radical base and expanding to include a broader range of constituencies?" he asked. "Are they prepared to take courageous actions to rein in or address the presence of foreign fighters? Would they focus on other issues, such as building institutional capacity or strengthening military capabilities?"
Trump, who described Sharaa as an "attractive, tough guy," urged him to join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel, expel foreign fighters from Syria, deport Palestinian militants, assist the U.S. in preventing an ISIS resurgence and take responsibility for ISIS detention centers in northeast Syria.
What Syrians want most is a more inclusive national dialogue and political process, the formation of a national army and measures to address the fears of minority groups.
Anas Joudeh, a political researcher and founder of the Nation Building Movement in Syria, said the first step would be for Sharaa to seriously engage with all of the country's constituencies, restart the national dialogue, adopt a new constitution, and form a more inclusive government.
"We can't expect things to be perfect right now," Joudeh told UPI. "We will strongly support any move toward greater inclusivity, as the country is heading toward total economic and social collapse."
He said the key to Syria's successful transition is the formation of a national army, which poses a "big challenge" for Sharaa. This includes absorbing the armed factions, addressing the foreign fighters who still maintain control in several areas and convincing the Druze, Alawites and Kurds to lay down their weapons.
"But that would be very difficult if Sharaa keeps on [running the country] with the same mentality," Joudeh said.
Sharaa will, therefore, need to address the concerns of the Druze, Alawites and Kurds, find solutions to mitigate feelings of existential threat, impose security and, ultimately, act not as a faction leader, but as the leader of the entire country, Hawach said.
"If they decide to make positive steps towards these communities, this is the perfect time to do so," he added.
He explained that with the possibility of accessing much-needed funds, the country can recruit for the army, establish better command control and gain more leverage to deal with armed factions that are not yet fully under the new authorities' control.
Makram Rabah, a political activist and history professor at the American University of Beirut, said Trump's meeting with Sharaa will put more pressures on him to act as a political leader.
"Lifting the sanctions sent a message not only to Sharaa but also to the Druze, Kurds and Alawites: that there is political cover, a form of settlement, and a need to work together," Rabah told UPI. "However, this is far from easy."
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