Accuracy of scientifically generated weather forecasts remains limited

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) was established in 1875 as a pivotal organisation for weather observation, forecasting and climate monitoring in the Indian subcontinent. Incidentally 'India' is the correct word. Many national organisations use 'Indian' at the beginning of their names, which I find somewhat racist in its flavour. As someone pointed out, it is the India cricket team that plays against the teams of other countries and not the Indian team!
IMD is the principal government agency for meteorology and related subjects and plays a vital role in disaster management, agriculture, aviation, and public safety by providing critical weather and climate services. Its vision includes achieving high forecast accuracy-zero-error for up to three days and 90 per cent accuracy for a five-day forecast.
As one of the first scientific departments of the Government of India it celebrated its 150th anniversary on January 15, a milestone which is a testament to its long-standing contributions to the field of meteorology and its impact on the nation.
The roots of meteorology in India trace back to ancient times. Early philosophical texts like the Upanishads discuss cloud formation, rain processes, and seasonal cycles, as long back as 3000 BCE. Modern meteorology gained a scientific foundation in the 17th century with the invention of the thermometer, barometer, and the formulation of atmospheric gas laws. The first meteorological observatory in India was established in 1785 at Kolkata.
Having worked in the agriculture and related sectors for over two decades, I enjoyed a close association with IMD. As a member of National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), in particular, I had the opportunity to study the working of the organisation closely and often visited its headquarters in Lodhi Road, Delhi.
Its distinguished past record and ambitious plans for the future notwithstanding, the fact remains that, at least so far as agriculture is concerned, I found IMD's forecasts are of limited, if not doubtful, value. Being a scientific organisation, it quite rightly puts out predictions based on studies of weather patterns using various instruments in different types of technology. The forecasts, excellent as they are from a technical point of view, however, are more relevant at the global level and have difficulty in relating to grassroots level requirements. I have for long argued that disaggregated and locally relevant short term forecasts ought to be the objectives which the agency needs to espouse.
Agriculture is a tricky area and what is a good thing for one place can spell disaster for another. Likewise, what is a good event at one time in a given place can, at the wrong time, have extremely adverse consequences-the sauce for the goose not being the same for the gander, in other words.
Take, for example, Anantapur district in Andhra Pradesh, where I began my career in civil service. Groundnut is a common crop there. If it does not rain in the first week of July, it is difficult to plant the seed. Another spell of rainfall is required a few weeks later, to whet the appetite of the growing plant for nourishment. Much later, when it is time for harvesting the crop, a shower, makes it easy for the groundnut to be plucked out of the ground. If any of these events happens at the wrong time, production and productivity will both suffer substantially. When the IMD says, for example, that rainfall is expected to be normal this year, it can very well mean that there may be floods in Bihar, eastern UP and West Bengal and severe droughts in Vidarbha or in the western parts of Rajasthan. The average of the two can satisfy the prediction of IMD, although there is disaster everywhere!
As a member of the NDMA, I found that my earlier feeling, that it is difficult, if not almost impossible, to predict the occurrence of earthquakes had, in fact been scientifically validated. Forecasting, however, is possible in the case of other natural calamities, such as cyclones, floods and droughts.
In the case of cyclones, I was aware that a technology was in vogue in other countries like the USA, by which aircrafts are sent into the eyes of cyclones, to study parameters such as the radius of maximum wind and temperature, which are crucial for anticipating the likely structure and intensity of the storms.
I remember having taken it up with IMD with a view to seeing whether it could be used in India too. It is indeed gratifying that, subsequently, IMD did buy the appropriate technology from the USA. They are waiting to see if the Indian Air Force (IAF) can spare one of the aircrafts available with them, which are known to be suitable for the purpose, could be spared, so that they can also commence the process.
In the meanwhile, it is understood that Taiwan has also started using the method, with the help of the USA.
Despite all the mostly unjustified criticism against them, the weather forecasters, when all is said and done, do a reasonably good job. It is no fault of theirs, after all, that phenomenons such as the butterfly syndrome, make it well-nigh impossible for accurate predictions of the manner in which the climate in the world or the weather in a local situation will behave.
We live in a world which today undoubtedly is free from any gender bias, a world in which women have, quite rightly, and on their own steam, proven their ability to occupy the highest positions in various walks of life, from politics to space travel, and acquitted themselves much better than their male counter parts. William Shakespeare, however, belonged to another era, not quite as enlightened. He would probably have assigned to the entity of weather the feminine gender. In order to correspond with his saying, as Hamlet said, in the play with the same name, 'Frailty thy name is woman.'
There is, in fact, also a Telugu equivalent expression, reflecting the same spirit, 'Kshanakshanikamul javarandra chittamul', or freely translated, a moment is all that a lady needs to change her mind! A spirit, no doubt, that belonged to a less emancipated times!
There are, after all, limits to even the most scientifically generated weather forecasts. There is this well-known butterfly syndrome in climate, a concept in chaos theory that describes how a small change in the initial conditions can lead to significant and unpredictable outcomes. The fluttering of the wings of a butterfly in Paris, for example, can lead to a super cyclone in the Bay of Bengal!
Talking about weather forecasts reminds me of the time when in the early 1970s, P.V. Narasimha Rao, as Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, travelled to Chittoor district to acquaint himself with the devastation caused by a severe drought. And as the Collector of that district at that time, a senior and respected colleague, Valliappan told me later, bursting with laughter, the Prime Minister went around in pouring rain!
(The writer was formerly Chief Secretary, Government of Andhra Pradesh)

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

India Today

27 minutes ago

• India Today

Are Indian astronauts being called back from US as Ax-4 mission is postponed?

Senior officials in the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) have firmly denied widespread social media rumours suggesting that Indian astronauts slated for the Axiom-4 (Ax-4) mission are being recalled following the mission's indefinite postponement. Sources within ISRO clarified that only the ISRO chairman and the Indian support team stationed in the United States are returning to India, while the astronauts themselves remain in Florida, ready to launch once a new date is Isro astronauts are in Florida for the mission. While Go Capt Shubhanshu Shukla is primary, Gp Capt P Balakrishnan Nair is backup. The Ax-4 mission, which was to carry Group Captain Shubhanshu Shukla to the International Space Station (ISS), has faced multiple delays due to technical issues and recent repair work aboard the ISS, particularly in the Russian Zvezda service module. NASA, Axiom Space, and SpaceX jointly announced that the mission, originally scheduled for June 22, has been postponed indefinitely as further evaluation of the ISS's readiness is the postponement, the Ax-4 crew—which includes Shukla along with international astronauts from Poland and Hungary—remains in quarantine in Florida, adhering to medical and safety protocols. 'The crew is in good health and high spirits and looks forward to launch,' Axiom Space confirmed in a recent update. advertisementISRO sources reiterated that the astronauts have not been recalled and continue to prepare for the mission, standing by for a new launch date once NASA and its partners complete their Ax-4 mission is historic for India, marking the country's return to human spaceflight after more than four decades. ISRO officials emphasised that the indefinite delay is a precautionary measure to ensure crew safety and mission success, not a cancellation or withdrawal of Indian the support team is returning, while the astronauts remain mission-ready in the US as the launch awaits reschedulingMust Watch IN THIS STORY#ISRO#NASA

Hans India

40 minutes ago

• Hans India

ISRO to transfer SSLV tech to HAL in ₹511 crore deal

In a landmark move towards boosting India's private space capabilities, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has secured a ₹511 crore deal to take over the manufacturing and marketing of Small Satellite Launch Vehicles (SSLVs) from the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), according to our sources. Over the next two years, ISRO will transfer the SSLV technology to HAL, which will be responsible for producing two SSLVs end-to-end, mirroring the methodology used in ISRO's developmental launches. The SSLV, capable of delivering up to 500 kg payloads to low-Earth orbit, is known for its rapid assembly, cost-effectiveness, and suitability for deploying mini and nano satellites. This move aims to reduce India's dependence on foreign players in the small satellite launch segment and increase its share in the growing global market. HAL will be allowed to independently manufacture and launch SSLVs starting August 2027, with autonomy to redesign components and select suppliers, although 51% ownership must remain with an Indian entity as per government norms. HAL beat out Adani-backed Alpha Design Technologies and Bharat Dynamics Ltd to win the contract, which was awarded after a two-phase evaluation process headed by former Principal Scientific Adviser K. VijayRaghavan. Unlike the PSLV procurement model, this initiative shifts the onus of production, launch, and marketing entirely to the private player. 'This is different from the PSLV model, where we were the buyers,' said Radhakrishnan Durairaj, CMD of NewSpace India Limited (NSIL). 'Now, HAL will look for its own market. There's significant global demand as satellites are increasingly miniaturised.' NSIL has already scheduled 15 SSLV launches to strengthen India's foothold in the space sector, with the first one planned for late 2026. Ahead of that, two SSLV missions carrying private Indian payloads are slated for launch in October 2025 and February 2026. 'We want India to become the global hub for small satellite launches,' said Pawan Goenka, Chairman of IN-SPACe, India's nodal agency for space sector promotion and regulation. This deal marks a turning point in India's space commercialisation roadmap and paves the way for HAL to become a key player in the international small satellite market.

First Post

3 hours ago

• First Post

India vs England LIVE Score, 1st Test: Gill, Pant aim to steer India towards mammoth score on Day 2

India vs England LIVE Score, 1st Test Day 2 (India vs England Full Scorecard): India resume from their overnight score of 359/3 with captain Shubman Gill and his deputy Rishabh Pant batting on 127 and 65 respectively, with England hoping for an early wicket or two. Follow our live blog for the latest updates on the second day. read more India captain Shubman Gill and his England counterpart Ben Stokes in action on Day 1 of the first Test in Headingley, Leeds. Reuters India vs England, 1st Test Live Score : Shubman Gill and Rishabh Pant will be hoping to continue scoring freely against the English pacers and try and steer their team towards a massive first innings score, which should give them the best possible chance of moving into the lead in the five-Test series. For the Ben Stokes-led Englishmen, getting an early wicket or two will be the priority and they will be hopeful of restricting the visitors under 500. Will India continue to bat the way they did on the opening day, and post a mammoth score on the board? Or will Ben Stokes and the rest of the Englishmen fight back with the ball? Stay tuned to find out. Shubman Gill and Rishabh Pant are batting on 127 and 65 respectively, with the fourth-wicket stand between them currently worth 138. As for the bowling department, captain Ben Stokes has been the standout performer with 2/43 while Brydon Carse (1/70) got the first breakthrough for the hosts by getting rid of KL Rahul. Day 2, however, isn't likely to be as sunny. There is a thunderstorm warning for Leeds on Saturday, meaning that while the day is likely to be interrupted, it is also expected to be overcast. According to Accuweather, however, the sun won't be completely hidden, and it might get quite warm in phases. The opening day of the Headingley Test witnessed plenty of sunshine, which eased the wicket out a lot more quickly and helped create ideal batting conditions that Shubman Gill, Yashasvi Jaiswal and the rest of the Indian top-order capitalised on. Gill celebrated his appointment as India Test captain with a fine century on the opening day of the Headingley Test. And in the process, he became only the fifth Indian to score a century on debut as Test captain after Vijay Hazare, Sunil Gavaskar, Dilip Vengsarkar and Virat Kohli – his predecessor at No 4. Jaiswal had scored a staggering 712 runs in the five-Test series against England at home last year at an average of 89, collecting a couple of double centuries along the way. And to highlight just how much he loves batting against this time, he scored 101 in his maiden outing on English soil on Friday. India vs England, 1st Test LIVE Score: India captain Shubman Gill and his deputy Rishabh Pant will be hoping to continue from where they left off on Day 1 and steer their team towards a mammoth first innings total on Day 2 of the first Test against England in Headingley. Gill and Pant were batting on 127 and 65 respectively, with the Indian team ending the opening day of the first Test in a dominant position, with the scorecard reading 359/3 after 85 overs. Gill and opener Yashasvi Jaiswal had headlined India's dominant batting performance on the opening day at Headingley with centuries, with the latter producing a sparkling 101. Gill joined a select group of Indians who scoring a century in their maiden Test as captain, a list that includes Virat Kohli, while Jaiswal continued to shine against England, a team he had scored a staggering 712 runs against during the five-match home series last year. Jaiswal had earlier got India off to an ideal start with a 91-run opening stand with KL Rahul, who chipped in with a patient 42. The pair appeared set to bat through the morning session when Brydon Carse got the breakthrough by having Rahul caught by Joe Root at first slip with an out-swinger. B Sai Sudharsan, making his Test debut, came in at No 3 with Gill having moved to the No 4 spot. The Tamil Nadu batter, however, failed to open his account in his maiden appearance for India in whites, getting caught-behind off England captain Ben Stokes' bowling at the stroke of lunch. Stokes, who had opted to field on what was a great day to bat, later got rid of Jaiswal, rattling his off stump with a beauty shortly after tea. Gill and Pant, however, held fort until the end of the evening session with an unbroken partnership worth 138 to ensure the visitors ended the day on a high.