Census scrapped

life and society politics 32 minutes ago
The Census is to be scrapped, in the biggest change to how New Zealand counts its population in more than 70 years. Since 1951, the Census has gathered demographic data on every New Zealander every five years. But today Statistics Minister Shane Reti has confirmed from 2030, the Census will be replaced with a combination of administrative data from other government agencies, and smaller annual surveys that just a proportion of people will complete. Paul Spoonley is an emeritus professor at Massey University, with expertise in demography.

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Counting on the census

One of the great pillars on which modern New Zealand society is based has been scrapped by the government in a move which has shocked many. The five-yearly, or thereabouts, census has seemingly had its day, Statistics Minister Shane Reti reckons. He announced on Wednesday that New Zealanders had, for the last time, needed to scurry about looking for a pen to fill out the forms or pray that the more recently online documents would work as intended. Citing the need to save time and money, Dr Reti signalled the census will be replaced with "a smaller annual survey and targeted data collection". This will, according to the somewhat breathless Beehive media release, provide better quality economic data to underpin the government's "growth agenda". In line with this thinking, there will be no census in 2028, with the new approach starting in 2030. The new method of collecting nationwide statistics will sharpen the focus on delivering "more timely insights into New Zealand's population", the minister reckons. Good luck with that. While we should not automatically kibosh something before it has had a chance to prove its worth, it is difficult to see how what may effectively be a scattergun approach will be superior to the system which has developed over more than 170 years. The census has, of course, never been perfect. There were well-publicised issues with the 2018 and 2023 counts, and the five-yearly spacing has been interrupted several times, due to such events as the Depression, World War 2 and the Christchurch earthquake in February 2011. There were also concerns about the robustness of responses when the 2023 census was held the month after Cyclone Gabrielle. Dr Reti also has some justification for being concerned about the cost of the census, which has ballooned during the past decade. According to government figures, the 2013 census cost $104 million, but outlay for the 2023 one was $325m, and the now-ditched 2028 one was expected to cost around $400m. The huge leap in price is certainly concerning. Based on those government numbers, there can be no doubt running a census is a very expensive business. However, we need to remember, and perhaps remind the government, that the policies which are meant to benefit everyone across the country in healthcare, education, housing, transport and so on, actually cost many billions of dollars. The price-tag for a census which informs those policies is definitely not chicken feed, but money generally well-spent. Reaction to this week's announcement has largely been negative and expressing surprise at the move. There is particular concern about how cherry-picking data and using smaller sample sets will affect the rigour of information about Māori and Pasifika communities, and also people with disabilities, rainbow communities, and smaller ethnic groups. Dr Reti's promised land of a "sharpened focus on quality" when it comes to statistics will be extremely difficult to achieve. There are crucial questions to answer around how people's existing data within government agencies will be appropriately and sensitively used, who decides what to use and when, and who will oversee the process to make sure it is as comprehensive and fair as such a potentially fraught new system can be. We are uneasy that this move appears to be another example of this government not being especially interested in the science or data necessary for good decision-making and for making policy which is evidence-based, instead careening ever-more wildly across the political landscape in pursuit of zealotry-driven outcomes. We unapologetically support the census system we had, and believe in the provision of proper statistical data sets for modern-day needs and as a source of valuable information for the historians of the future Beware the old saying: "Garbage in, garbage out."

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Hawke's Bay residents outraged over council's proposed water rate hike

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"Does this council have any social conscience? Because the way it is right now it appears they don't," she said. Kim has crunched the numbers on her own rates bill and said if, or when, water rates reach the council's forecast of $7000 a household by 2035, it will simply be unaffordable because it takes the total annual rates bill to about $9,500. "That's $180 a week per household of rates alone, plus $100 insurance, plus your power bill... if you're on a pension you're pretty much going to be left with $50 a week if you're lucky. No one can afford that," she said. Lincon Taylor owns Takapau business Taylor Made Gates and said under the CHBDC proposal he's facing a water rates rise of more than $25,000 a year for his business and the four properties he rents to his workers. "It's a huge increase. I find it hard to understand how the figures add up, what the council is trying to achieve, and who is paying for it," Taylor said. He said the regional model was probably needed, as Hastings and Napier could help make it an economy of scale for borrowing money, but worried about smaller rural communities like his. "I hope it doesn't turn around and bite small communities too hard because they can't afford it. "I'm proud of the fact that Takapau township has become a retirement village effectively... but they are the ones who are going to be affected the most. To add $4000 to their rates is going to be horrendous," Taylor said. Under the CHBDC proposal, Taylor Made Gates owner Lincoln Taylor estimates his water rates bill will increase by about $25,000 a year for his business and the rental properties for his workers. Photo: RNZ/Alexa Cook Carmel Thompson manages the CHB budget service and helps over 300 families and pensioners with their spending. But with the inevitable water rates increase, she's concerned about how her clients - both homeowners and renters - will make ends meet. "We have a lot of elderly women on our books and those living off only the pension are already struggling with the rates so I hate to think what will happen if we end up with these huge water rates, I'm not sure how these people will manage. "The elderly on pensions are our new poor. Everyone in the community is suffering though, it's really really sad," Thompson said. Fellow Takapau resident, Carl Tippett agreed. He moved from a rural property into the village of Takapau, but was now looking at moving away. "This is the beginning of the death of small towns right throughout New Zealand. If this goes ahead then people like us, over 65's, will not be able to afford to live... I feel angry. "We're at the end of the rope not the beginning. Frankly it's too late... there should have been a much longer consultation," he said. Owen Clough felt the council and government had failed to properly consider the huge impact on its residents if water rates skyrocket over $7000 by 2035. "There's no social thought about what is going to happen. No one has sat down and said 'can they afford afford this, can the country afford this?', because the answer is no," he said. Takapau pensioner Diana Sweeney was frustrated by the same issues, and questioned whether CHBDC was doing enough to lobby the government for help. "The lack of responsibility to this community by previous councils, the buck has to stop somewhere. The council needs to be our voice, we are a small town and we count. They need to spend our money responsibly," she said. A feeling echoed by Christine Ross, she's also part of the group and is one of 208 people who made submissions on the 'Local Water Done Well' proposals. "I can't afford to pay an increased rate on a single pension, it'll be almost 50 percent of my pension each week being spend on rates and I don't have it. "I won't be able to afford to live here, or anywhere at this rate. I'm horrified, I don't understand why the council isn't working for us, to help us," she said. CHB Mayor Alex Walker told RNZ the 'Local Water Done Well' was government's policy and framework. "The costs outlined in the current model are confronting, however council is actively working on options to reduce this cost, as outlined in the report to Council on 5 June. "We take every person, in every community seriously. Takapau was the first community in the district to get major water treatment plant upgrades in 2019," she said. CHBDC Mayor Alex Walker. Photo: RNZ / Alexa Cook CHBDC said it had the "perfect storm" of water problems in the region, with years of underinvestment, increasing regulations and an intimidating list of three waters infrastructure that needed upgrading or replacing. 85 percent of total council debt is related to the three waters programme with 25 percent of the drinking water piping network and 40 percent of the wastewater piping network at high risk of failure. Two water reservoirs are over 100 years old and need replacing, seven water treatment plants need $47 million of upgrades, and six wastewater treatment plants are not compliant and urgently need upgrading to the tune of $112 million. Central Hawke's Bay residents feel their council hasn't been transparent about the forecast future water rates hike. Photo: RNZ/Alexa Cook The Mayor said the council had consulted with the community for five weeks and had 10 meetings including two in Takapau. "Affordability. Affordability. Affordability. It is our key challenge and Local Water Done Well does not convincingly deliver that for us yet. Our community can see it and they are, quite rightly, not happy," Walker said. She said the council was continuously talking to government about the district's challenges and opportunities. "We have made multiple approaches to government, including seeking financial support and leading early work across the region on the Hawke's Bay Model in 2019. "Local Water Done Well is the government's approach to address the challenges districts, like ours, face which sets out that ratepayers not government pays for water assets like any other utility, such as electricity or gas," she said. Residents don't just have an issue with the cost, but also with what they said was a lack of consultation with residents over the massive water rates hike being proposed. Kim Mathewson told RNZ the council had known about the proposal since December, but only informed residents in May. "They're not being transparent right now and presenting all the figures. The information they gave us at the community meeting was like a power point presentation for a business, it didn't give you the facts. "It didn't highlight the $7000 increase and it was so small at the bottom of the page... to me that's not being transparent... it's being dishonest," she said. But mayor Alex Walker said the council had been transparent, and the financial rules presented in December have rapidly changed and are no longer correct. "That we were approaching consultation has been flagged in the media, and the regional work towards LWDW has been reported on repeatedly over the last few years. "We have had constructive conversations with people across the district. Most people are aware we are fighting for them, not with them, to make the district a better place and figure out an affordable solution," Walker said. However, residents want to see CHBDC lobby the government for more funding, to try and reduce the burden on ratepayers. "They have to fight the fight with the government. I've said to them: 'when you first saw this why did you not come to us, we are your biggest ally and you chose not to use us'. "We could have been fighting this fight two years ago. The consultation period has been too short, but I do know it's been the same for every community," Kim Mathewson said. Under the new 'Local Water Done Well' scheme, the Central Hawke's Bay District Council consulted with its community on three options: A regional controlled organisation (its preferred option), a stand-alone district council controlled organisation or an in-house delivery unit. However, under the scheme there are also two other options that weren't presented to CHB resident; a mixed council and consumer trust owned model, and a consumer trust owned organisation where assets are transferred from council to a trust. "They should have showed us all the options and presented them much better," Kim Mathewson said. However, CHBDC said it was only able to legislatively comply with three options, which was what it presented to the community in the Consultation Document, and this was explained on its website. Having now heard the public submissions on the proposed options for water services, the council will deliberate these at its meeting on July 3rd. All councils have to submit a 'water service delivery plan' to the government by September 3rd 2025. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.