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Otago Daily Times
8 hours ago
- Politics
- Otago Daily Times
Counting on the census
One of the great pillars on which modern New Zealand society is based has been scrapped by the government in a move which has shocked many. The five-yearly, or thereabouts, census has seemingly had its day, Statistics Minister Shane Reti reckons. He announced on Wednesday that New Zealanders had, for the last time, needed to scurry about looking for a pen to fill out the forms or pray that the more recently online documents would work as intended. Citing the need to save time and money, Dr Reti signalled the census will be replaced with "a smaller annual survey and targeted data collection". This will, according to the somewhat breathless Beehive media release, provide better quality economic data to underpin the government's "growth agenda". In line with this thinking, there will be no census in 2028, with the new approach starting in 2030. The new method of collecting nationwide statistics will sharpen the focus on delivering "more timely insights into New Zealand's population", the minister reckons. Good luck with that. While we should not automatically kibosh something before it has had a chance to prove its worth, it is difficult to see how what may effectively be a scattergun approach will be superior to the system which has developed over more than 170 years. The census has, of course, never been perfect. There were well-publicised issues with the 2018 and 2023 counts, and the five-yearly spacing has been interrupted several times, due to such events as the Depression, World War 2 and the Christchurch earthquake in February 2011. There were also concerns about the robustness of responses when the 2023 census was held the month after Cyclone Gabrielle. Dr Reti also has some justification for being concerned about the cost of the census, which has ballooned during the past decade. According to government figures, the 2013 census cost $104 million, but outlay for the 2023 one was $325m, and the now-ditched 2028 one was expected to cost around $400m. The huge leap in price is certainly concerning. Based on those government numbers, there can be no doubt running a census is a very expensive business. However, we need to remember, and perhaps remind the government, that the policies which are meant to benefit everyone across the country in healthcare, education, housing, transport and so on, actually cost many billions of dollars. The price-tag for a census which informs those policies is definitely not chicken feed, but money generally well-spent. Reaction to this week's announcement has largely been negative and expressing surprise at the move. There is particular concern about how cherry-picking data and using smaller sample sets will affect the rigour of information about Māori and Pasifika communities, and also people with disabilities, rainbow communities, and smaller ethnic groups. Dr Reti's promised land of a "sharpened focus on quality" when it comes to statistics will be extremely difficult to achieve. There are crucial questions to answer around how people's existing data within government agencies will be appropriately and sensitively used, who decides what to use and when, and who will oversee the process to make sure it is as comprehensive and fair as such a potentially fraught new system can be. We are uneasy that this move appears to be another example of this government not being especially interested in the science or data necessary for good decision-making and for making policy which is evidence-based, instead careening ever-more wildly across the political landscape in pursuit of zealotry-driven outcomes. We unapologetically support the census system we had, and believe in the provision of proper statistical data sets for modern-day needs and as a source of valuable information for the historians of the future Beware the old saying: "Garbage in, garbage out."
1News
3 days ago
- Business
- 1News
Five Big Things That Happened Today: Wednesday, June 18
Supermarket on fire in Auckland, Trump departs G7 early due to Middle East conflict, butter and milk drive the annual food price increase. 1 Medsafe approves sale of melatonin and prescribing magic mushrooms Relief is on the way for Kiwis struggling with insomnia and treatment-resistant depression, with Medsafe approving the sale of over-the-counter melatonin and the prescription of medicinal psilocybin. Melatonin – used to treat insomnia and jet lag – would be available for purchase in pharmacies without a prescription in due course. Read More ADVERTISEMENT 2 Five-yearly census to be scrapped New Zealand will scrap the traditional nationwide five-yearly census from 2030 in lieu of a system that uses existing government data, smaller annual surveys, and targeted data collection. Monthly inflation reporting would also begin from 2027 to provide more frequent and up-to-date economic data, Statistics Minister Shane Reti announced today. Read More 3 Hamilton mayor says Chiefs fans will 'bring the volume' despite cowbells ban Hamilton Mayor Paula Southgate said Chiefs fans are 'disappointed' at the news cowbells would be banned at the Super Rugby final between the Crusaders and Chiefs this Saturday, but it wouldn't stop them making a din. Yesterday, it was announced cowbells would be banned from the final. Cowbells are synonymous with Waikato rugby, which fans of the region have long used to show support. ADVERTISEMENT Read More 4 'Confronting scene' inside burnt New World Foodstuffs says it will take time to determine when a fire-ravaged Auckland CBD supermarket may reopen, as they grapple with the "confronting scene" inside. Fire crews completed thermal imaging of New World Victoria Park this morning, confirming no remaining hot spots before handing the building back to the owners. Read More 5 Greazy Dogs MC gang drug bust: Police seize $1.5m in assets A "significant blow" has been dealt to drug supply and manufacture by the Greazy Dogs MC this week, police say. ADVERTISEMENT Police arrested several members and associates of the gang, and restrained more than $1.5 million in assets. Read More Watch: Tennis star reveals impact of horrific social media abuse British number two Katie Boulter had just lost a tie-break at the French Open when the death threats started. The International Tennis Federation reports 458 tennis players received thousands of abusive public messages last year. Watch Here ONE EXERCISE TRICK A UK study found exercisers using smartwatches were 10 times more likely to start a programme and seven times more likely to stick with it. Read More
RNZ News
3 days ago
- Politics
- RNZ News
Five-yearly Census to be scrapped from 2030, replaced with administrative data, annual surveys
The Census has been taken in the same format for more than 70 years, but those days are over. Photo: RNZ New Zealanders have filled out their last traditional Census form, with the five-yearly count scrapped from 2030. Statistics Minister Shane Reti announced today that the Census - which has existed in a similar format for more than 70 years - will be replaced with a combination of administrative data from other government agencies and smaller annual surveys that a sample of the population will complete. There will be no 2028 Census. The announcement was made just as England and Wales looks set to abandon a similar approach for their 2031 Census, with the UK Statistical Agency recommending that a traditional Census go ahead instead . Reti said he was confident the approach would work in New Zealand. "Amongst other things, we've got a smaller population so it's a smaller problem to grapple with," he said. Stats NZ, which governs the Census, said there would be a lot of work over the next five years to ensure the administrative data it will rely on is up to scratch. Acting chief statistician Mary Craig said the agency was already working with other government departments. "Some of the Census data is almost at the level we will need it, and others not so much," she said. "There's a level of data from everybody, but does it actually have all the attributes that we would need for this type of exercise? No." The change follows a major review carried out last year , after the 2023 Census. Reti said the traditional Census was "no longer financially viable". "Despite the unsustainable and escalating costs, successive censuses have been beset with issues or failed to meet expectations," he said. An attempt to shift the Census online in 2018 was a failure, with much lower than normal completion rates that affected Māori particularly badly . The fallout prompted the chief statistician to resign, and the 2023 Census was shifted back to a paper form. However, completion rates were still lower than previous years, with only 88 percent of the population filling out and returning the 2023 form. The Census does more than just provide interesting insights into how New Zealand is changing - it serves some crucial democratic functions. It helps to determine how and where government funding is spent for basic services and infrastructure like hospitals and schools, now and in the future . The population count also determines how many electorates there are, and where their boundaries should be drawn. The Census is also the only nation-wide survey of housing conditions - collecting information on the size of each dwelling, the number of people living there, and which basic services like internet are available. Reti said not only would the new approach save time and money, it would also provide "more timely insights" into New Zealand's population. The most recent Census cost $325 million, and the data analysis involved meant the first results were not released until mid-2024. "By leveraging data already collected by government agencies, we can produce key census statistics every year, better informing decisions that affect people's lives," Reti said. A Census has been held in New Zealand every five years since 1851, with only a few exceptions - most recently following the 2011 Christchurch earthquake. This will be the biggest change to how the Census is conducted since 1951, when the same Census form was filled out by Māori and European New Zealanders for the first time. Administrative data would form the "backbone" of the new system, with surveys - which will begin in 2027 - helping to fill in data gaps, especially for smaller populations. The administrative data used would include information from tax records, education enrolments, health data, student loans and allowances and ACC injury claims. Some statisticians and demographers have warned that any move away from a traditional Census that attempts to count and survey the entire population will need to be done carefully and transparently. Last year, a group of senior researchers at the Public Health Communications Centre - many of whom rely on Census data for their work - said there was a role for administrative data. However, it had been shown to "not be up to the task in many areas, such as understanding households or people's health and well-being, compared with survey data", they wrote . Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Scoop
3 days ago
- Business
- Scoop
Sharpened Focus On Quality Economic, Population Stats
Minister of Statistics Statistics Minister Dr Shane Reti has today announced a major new direction for Stats NZ, replacing the traditional paper-based census and increasing the frequency and quality of economic data to underpin the Government's growth agenda. From 2030, New Zealand will move away from a traditional nationwide census and adopt a new approach using administrative data, supported by a smaller annual survey and targeted data collection. 'This approach will save time and money while delivering more timely insights into New Zealand's population,' says Dr Reti. 'Relying solely on a nationwide census day is no longer financially viable. In 2013, the census cost $104 million. In 2023, costs had risen astronomically to $325 million and the next was expected to come in at $400 million over five years. 'Despite the unsustainable and escalating costs, successive censuses have been beset with issues or failed to meet expectations. 'By leveraging data already collected by government agencies, we can produce key census statistics every year, better informing decisions that affect people's lives.' While administrative data will form the backbone of the new approach, surveys will continue to verify data quality and fill gaps. Stats NZ will work closely with communities to ensure smaller population groups are accurately represented. The Government will also invest $16.5 million to deliver a monthly Consumers Price Index (CPI) from 2027, bringing New Zealand into line with other advanced economies. This will provide more timely inflation data to help the Government and Reserve Bank respond quickly to cost-of-living pressures. 'Inflation affects interest rates, benefit adjustments, and household budgets. Timely data helps ensure Kiwis are better supported in a fast-changing environment,' says Dr Reti. Funding is also being allocated to align Stats NZ's reporting with updated international macroeconomic standards. These reflect shifts such as the growth of the digital economy and will ensure New Zealand is measuring what matters in today's world. 'Modern, internationally aligned statistics will support trade and investment, helping drive economic growth and job creation,' says Dr Reti. Dr Reti says these changes reflect a broader reset for Stats NZ. 'Some outputs have not met the standard expected of a world-class statistics agency. We're getting back to basics – measuring what matters. Our goal is a modern, efficient, and reliable data system that delivers the insights New Zealand needs now and into the future.' Notes: Administrative (admin) data is information collected by government agencies during their everyday operations — like tax records, education enrolments, or health data. Admin data is already used regularly to produce some statistics, like population estimates and statistics about international migration, household income, and child poverty. It has also been used in the two most recent censuses to support the information gathered through surveying. Examples of admin data and their sources include: ACC injury claims (ACC) student loan and allowances (Inland Revenue, Ministry of Social Development) tax and income (Inland Revenue) births, deaths, and marriages (Department of Internal Affairs) education data (Ministry of Education).
Newsroom
3 days ago
- Politics
- Newsroom
Number is up for error-ridden NZ census – so what fills the data void?
Analysis: Since early in the Old Testament, leaders have counted their population. Sometimes to raise taxes, sometimes to raise an army. They counted the men, their wives and children, their donkeys, goats and sheep … Indeed, the fourth book of the Christian Bible is named 'Numbers', because it starts and finishes with God ordering censuses of the Israelites. Well, Statistics Minister Shane Reti may not be God, but he has now ordered an end to the NZ census. The census is a comprehensive record dating back to 1851, when the colonial Government also saw fit to count the numbers of citizens and their sheep (233,043) and cattle (34,787) … though it didn't count Māori. There's something simple and comforting about totting up numbers like that. It lacks the nuance and sophistication of randomised surveys and other statistical data collections tools; it's something we can all understand and trust. That will be a problem for Reti, with his announcement that the Government is doing away with the census. 'This approach will save time and money while delivering more timely insights into New Zealand's population,' he says. He points out that the cost of conducting the five-yearly census has risen 'astronomically' from $104 million in 2013, to $325m in 2023. If the 2028 census had gone ahead, it was expected to come in at $400m. Instead, Statistics NZ will measure New Zealand, New Zealanders and those visiting here (not to mention our sheep and cattle) using other tools. Specifically, so-called administrative data – which is information about us that's already collected by other agencies, including Immigration NZ, Inland Revenue, the Ministry of Social Development, Health NZ, ACC, schools and the courts. That will be rounded out by regular smaller surveys of no more than 5 percent of the population each year. Now, pollsters have got extremely good at designing survey questions, quizzing samples of the population, correcting for all sorts of demographic imbalances, and then extrapolating from those findings to the wider population. But as we know from every election campaign, those polls are closely scrutinised by politicians, spin doctors, the media and the wider population. The slightest aberration is seized on as evidence of the unreliability of polling. This has always been the case, but in the last few years official information has faced its own challenge. There are large numbers of people, here and overseas, who have become intuitively suspicious of governments, their institutions, and their science and data. So Stats NZ (which already commissions some surveys) now faces a trust problem. It must now persuade New Zealanders and international stakeholders to trust official statistics that are extracted from administrative data (which will feel intrusive to many) and from surveys (which will feel feel opaque and unreliable to many more). It's been coming for a long time, but nonetheless, this is a bad time to drop the census. This is a post-truth era when New Zealand and the world need facts they can trust. But Stats NZ's trust problem is not just the local manifestation of worldwide culture wars; it's also a problem directly of Stats NZ's own making. It's botched two censuses in succession. In 2018, the shift towards online data at the expense of field operations delivered far lower-than-expected response rates and data quality concerns, particularly for Māori and Pacific populations. Government Statistician Liz MacPherson was forced to tender her resignation. Then her successor, Mark Sowden, quit after two damning reports into the misuse of 2023 census data for party political purposes. After Sowden's departure, former Inland Revenue deputy commissioner Mary Craig picked up the poisoned chalice of Stats NZ chief executive and Government Statistician, as least on an acting basis. Like Reti, she's fronting a decision that was made by others, but she's putting a brave face on it. 'This is an exciting and necessary change,' she says. 'The traditional way of running a nationwide survey on census day can no longer be justified, due to rising costs, declining survey response rates, and disruption from events, like Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023.' She and Reti are right that the pace of policy-making requires information that is updated more than once every five years – though, to be fair, most of that data is already available, subject to compliance with the Privacy Act. Newsroom asked Sean Broughton, Stats NZ's population and housing statistics spokesperson, how New Zealanders can be confident that their information is being treated properly, and that the statistical reporting remains robust. 'As you say, the enduring challenge of maintaining New Zealander's trust and confidence is paramount,' Broughton acknowledges. 'Stats NZ is committed to building trust and reassuring New Zealand that we will protect the privacy and security of their information.' Laws and policies guide how Stats NZ protects and manages data, including the Privacy Act and the Data and Statistics Act. 'There are strict privacy, security, and confidentiality rules in place.' As for the reliability of the reporting, a cross-government chief executive group will lead and support the collective effort to improve admin data, Broughton says. Internal and external governance structures will be put in place that provide appropriate technical and governance oversight. That's critical, because official statistics are not only of curiosity value. They inform the Government where to invest $200 billion of infrastructure capital over the next 20 years – housing, schools, hospitals, climate change mitigation and adaptation … And as former Government Statistician Len Cook points out, they help us understand the dynamics of land use changes. For instance, those sheep numbers (233,043 in 1851) had risen to 76 million in 1976, but have now fallen back to 23 million. That means farmers moving off their land; school rolls falling; rural economies stagnating. Why is this? And is it a healthy evolution towards a lower carbon, high-tech economy – or is it a problem that governments and communities need to address? There is enormous variability in the drivers of population change and age structure among different local and national communities. The interaction between policy and population change is weakly understood. Writing for Newsroom, Cook warns of a coming 'population storm' for which we may now be ill-prepared. 'Falling fertility, rising life expectancy and volatile migration flows mean that the fiscal impact of demographic change from static policy settings will have the same effect as a fall in government revenue of over 30 percent by 2045,' he says. 'Almost all publicly funded services will face pressures of a far greater magnitude than we are currently seeing. Without regular knowledge we can trust, we will have little information to plan with.' Reti calls the statistics changes 'getting back to basics' – but to many, these contemporary data collection tools won't feel so 'basic' as simply counting everyone in the country. Persuading them to trust this new data? That's a task of Biblical proportions.
