Iran-Israel Conflict: How The UK Could Become A 'Target' If It Helps America Join The War
While domestic politics continues to flummox Keir Starmer, he has, so far, excelled on the world stage.
He has emerged as a figurehead in Europe in the fight against Vladimir Putin and made sure the UK was the first country to strike a trade deal with the US after Donald Trump unveiled his chaotic tariffs.
But Starmer is now facing his greatest test as an international leader: trying not to get pulled into a febrile war in the Middle East.
When Israel struck Iran last week, supposedly over fears it was building nuclear warheads, Tehran was quick to retaliate.
The US, Israel's strongest ally, initially seemed to favour de-escalation but Trump soon ramped up his rhetoric.
He called for Iran's 'unconditional surrender' and claimed the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 'an easy target' should the US decide to kill him.
Asked if he was going to join in with the strikes, Trump said: 'I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I'm going to do. I can tell you this: Iran's got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate.'
'I may do it, I may not do it, nobody knows what I'm going to do'Donald Trump is asked if the US will strike Iranian nuclear facilities The President adds: 'Iran has got a lot of trouble'https://t.co/6AXIpfJ5oOpic.twitter.com/Dz2F94KOOt
— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 18, 2025
The US president has now announced that he will make a decision on attacking Iran within the next fortnight, giving the world some much needed breathing space.
But the clock is still ticking and it's unclear exactly where the UK stands amid Trump's indecision.
Starmer has repeatedly called for de-escalation, urging Trump not to 'ramp up' the situation by taking military action.
But there are fears that Britain could still be pulled into the war, even if not directly.
The UK will likely offer defensive, intelligence and logistical support for Israel's self-defence than military engagement against Iranian targets.
Britain also shares a military base with the US in the Chagos Islands. The States would have to get the UK's permissions to deploy jets from the shared facility in order to strike Iran.
Either way, joining Israel's fight could have grave consequences, according to experts.
A senior research fellow at RUSI on the Middle East and North Africa Security told HuffPost UK that an escalation would 'undoubtedly' endanger international security.
Dr Burcu Ozcelik explained that any western state that 'actively engages' in operations against Iran 'could become a target by Iran-linked violent extremist groups'.
Iran has set up militant proxies around the Middle East, including the Gaza-based Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, although most of these groups have been suppressed by Israel and the US.
Still, Ozcelik warned: 'There are open-ended, potentially protracted, high-severity risks on the horizon as terrorist or violent organisations may seek to retaliate against what they perceive as western complicity in Israel's Operation Rising Lion.
'This is part of the worst case scenario planning that will weigh heavily on US, UK, and European governments.'
Attacking Iran could result in 'kidnappings, targeted sabotage, or attacks against national assets and diplomatic missions abroad,' according to the academic.
She added: 'The risk of attacks against western diplomatic, military and commercial interests located in the Middle East, scattered across the Gulf, for example, is a risk, as is Iranian threats to shut the Stait of Hormuz.
'Even disruption of the Strait, short of full shutdown, which counters Iran's own interests, will impact oil prices.'
The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to open water and a quarter of the world's oil trade goes through it.
Wael Sawan, the boss of the oil film Shell, warned on Thursday further escalation will cause 'a huge impact on global trade'.
According to Sky News, the repercussions from supporting the US are not the only concerns the UK government might have right now.
The attorney general Richard Hermer 'has questions' over the very legality of Israel's strikes on Iran, according to reports.
As Lord Robertson, former secretary general of NATO, told Chatham House this week: 'All of these bits are on the chessboard and nobody knows really what is going to happen.'
Pointing to the confusion around Trump's decision, he continued: 'It would appear at the moment that he's involved in a deadly game of brinkmanship, using the same skills that he had as a property developer.
'But this is not a plan for a condominium in New York, this is the future stability of the world.'
And according to Ozelik, Starmer does not even control any major parts on the chessboard.
She warned that while the prime minister may continue to call for de-escalation, 'it is highly doubtful that the EU or the UK has the leverage to influence Trump's decision making on Iran.'
So Downing Street will be hoping that Trump will somehow be able to remove himself, and therefore the UK, from the chaos – otherwise the president risks getting the whole of the west into what he would describe as 'a lot of trouble'.
As Trump Weighs Up Joining Israel's War Against Iran, Here's A Reminder How We Got Here
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