VIDEO: Will an anti-Trump wave change Canada's election result?
NORMAN HERMANT, REPORTER: As political comebacks go, they don't come much bigger than what Canada's governing centre left Liberals have pulled off in this election.
For much of the last two years the opposition Conservatives were way ahead in the polls - seemingly poised for victory.
Then everything changed.
DONALD TRUMP, US PRESIDENT: Canada would be great as our cherished 51st state. You wouldn't have to worry about borders, you wouldn't have to worry about anything.
MARK CARNEY, PRIME MINISTER OF CANADA: Donald Trump wants to break us so America can own us. They want our land, they want this land, they want our resources, they want our water, they want our country. Never.
JENNIFER DITCHBURN, CEO, INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH ON PUBLIC POLICY: I don't recall another election that's been this surprising, and where all our expectations around how it would unfold were totally up ended.
NORMAN HERMANT: Jennifer Ditchburn runs a leading public policy think tank. She says Canadians are angry about Donald Trump's repeated suggestions the country should become America's 51st state.
DONALD TRUMP: I have to be honest. As a state, it works great because if they didn't have us, they would cease to exist, which is true, certainly as a country.
NORMAN HERMANT: Comments like that from Trump have sparked protests and Canadian celebrities like Mike Myers have adopted the Elbows Up slogan - an ice hockey term that refers to dishing out punishment to opponents.
JENNIFER DITCHBURN: All of a sudden, Canadians were faced with a country that was supposed to be our closest friend and our neighbour, a country that we've gone to war with. All of a sudden, the president of that country is posing an existential threat to us as a country.
NORMAN HERMANT: Mark Carney has been Prime Minister for less than seven weeks after succeeding Justin Trudeau whose popularity plunged in recent years.
And Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has repeatedly to told voters there's no difference between the two.
PIERRE POILIEVRE, CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADER: Under the Liberals, led by Trudeau or Carney, what we have is out of touch weak leadership.
NORMAN HERMANT: But the polls show the governing Liberals have staged a remarkable recovery. For all of last year they fell further and further behind the Conservative opposition.
When Justin Trudeau resigned his party trailed by 25 points.
Then Donald Trump started talking tariffs and suggesting Canada should join the US. Since Mark Carney became the new Prime Minister last month the Liberals have taken the lead.
DAVID COLETTO, ABACUS DATA: Our heads are spinning here in Canada a little bit at how quick things have changed.
NORMAN HERMANT: Pollster David Coletto says Canada has never seen the political landscape shift so quickly.
DAVID COLETTO: It's pretty unique around the world to see an incumbent party that had been in office for 10 years, deeply unpopular, quickly replace their leader, and within weeks, be in a place where they're now the favourites to win the election.
(Excerpt from 7.30 - 10th April, 2023)
MARK CARNEY: The current system doesn't work. It's not fit for purpose.
(End of excerpt)
NORMAN HERMANT: Mark Carney has no elected political experience.
He was formerly governor of the Bank of Canada and then the Bank of England during Brexit. But the economist was far from a household name in his home country.
DAVID COLETTO: When he announced he was running for leader of the Liberal Party, we showed a picture to respondents in a survey and asked them who this is, and only 9 per cent of Canadians could pick out Mark Carney from that picture
CONSERVATIVE ELECTION ADVERTISEMENT: This is not change. Mark Carney is reading from the same Liberal playbook.
NORMAN HERMANT: The Conservative campaign has tied Carney to the Liberals record in government.
And Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has hammered away on issues that dragged down the current government.
PIERRE POILIEVRE: Who's voting for homes you can actually afford?
KORY TENEYCKE, RUBICON STRATEGY: They were on track to winning the largest majority government in Canadian history, and it all kind of crumbled in the matter of, you know, three, four months
REPORTER: The idea that you say this is campaign malpractice at the highest level, why are you saying that?
KORY TENEYCKE: Because we blew a 25-point lead.
NORMAN HERMANT: Leading Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke says the party pivoted too late to the campaign's main issue – Donald Trump.
KORY TENEYCKE: I don't think Poilievre, who is the leader of the Conservative Party, even uttered the name of Donald Trump until eight days into the campaign, when it was by far the number one issue for the electorate.
LIBERAL ELECTION ADVERTISEMENT: Everything is broken. Everything is broken. Fake news. Fake news.
NORMAN HERMANT: And Teneycke believes the Conservative campaign has another problem when it comes to Donald Trump.
KORY TENEYCKE: There is a lot of slogans, there is a lot of name-calling. All of that I think, made voters who were very focused on Trump very uncomfortable with Poilievre and he appeared a bit like the Canadian franchise owner of the MAGA movement and folks are really not in the mood for that.
NORMAN HERMANT: Canadians are not in the mood for the US much at all lately. In response to devastating tariffs, American liquor has been pulled from most shelves and many shoppers are buying Canadian - boycotting US imports.
JENNIFER DITCHBURN: If you talk to any Canadian and you walk down the street and you say, how are you feeling right now? They probably tell you some mixture of betrayed, disappointed but very, very angry at the Trump administration, to the point that people go to great lengths not to purchase anything at the grocery store that is grown in the United States.
NORMAN HERMANT: In the final days of the campaign the polls appeared to tighten but just months ago few thought Mark Carney and the Liberals would even be competitive in this election - let alone win.
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