Ukraine Commander Says Russia Shows No Sign of Winding Down War
Russia shows no signs it plans to wind down its war in Ukraine, with an estimated 695,000 troops deployed across an expanded front line and another 121,000 in strategic reserve, according to Ukraine's commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.
With Moscow's invasion of its neighbor well into its fourth year, the Russian military is able to mobilize an average of about 9,000 new troops per month, he said. Bloomberg was unable to independently verify the figures.
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New York Times
an hour ago
- New York Times
How the Attacks on Iran Are Part of a Much Bigger Global Struggle
There are so many things to say in the wake of the U.S. bombing of three key Iranian nuclear facilities that it is easy to get lost in the gripping details. So for now, let me try to step back and explore the global, regional and local forces shaping this story. What's really going on here? It is a very, very big drama, and it is not confined to the Middle East. To my mind, Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the sole aim of wiping its democracy off the map and absorbing it into Russia, and the attacks on Israel in 2023 by Hamas and Iran's proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq were manifestations of a global struggle between the forces of inclusion and the forces of resistance. That is a struggle between countries and leaders who see the world and their nations benefiting from more trade, more cooperation against global threats and more decent, if not democratic, governance — versus regimes whose leaders thrive on resisting those trends because conflict enables them to keep their people down, their armies strong and their thieving of their treasuries easy. The forces of inclusion had steadily been growing stronger. Ukraine in 2022 was getting closer to joining the European Union. This would have been the biggest expansion of a whole and free Europe since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, because it would have added to the West a huge agricultural, technological and military power and left Russia more isolated — and looking more out of step to its own people — than ever. At the very same time, the Biden administration was making rapid headway on a deal for the U.S. to forge a security alliance with Saudi Arabia. In return, Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel, and Israel would begin talks with the Palestinians on possible statehood. This would have been the biggest expansion of an integrated Middle East since the Camp David peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in 1979. In short, Ukraine looked poised to join the West, and Israel looked poised to join the East. So what happened? Putin invaded Ukraine to stop the first movement, and Hamas and Iran's other proxies attacked Israel to stop the second. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Iran has little choice but to retaliate against US - as Russia faces urgent decision on how to back Tehran
Donald Trump's decision to attack Iran could trigger a wider regional or even global war, but much will hinge on how Russia and China - Tehran's most powerful allies - respond. Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, said he will hold "serious consultations" with Vladimir Putin on Monday morning in Moscow. His country is also in contact with Beijing. Israel-Iran live: 'Incredible success' of US strikes on Iran hailed by Hegseth Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are regarded by Western allies as a new axis of authoritarian powers, increasingly aligned and supportive of each other. Donald Trump, though, has broken ranks from his country's traditional democratic partners to forge a closer relationship with Mr Putin than any other US leader in recent years. How much that might affect the Kremlin's calculations, as Moscow weighs up how to respond to his actions in Iran, adds a new layer of unpredictability to the crisis. Another limiting factor is the Russian military's physical capacity - should it wish - to bolster Iran with military support given its war in Ukraine. Unlike the NATO alliance, there is no formal agreement between Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang to come to each other's assistance in a crisis. However, the weakening of one member of the quartet would impact on the vital national interests of the other three, making it mutually beneficial to help each other out - including with military force or at the very least by supplying weapons. Iran has little choice but to retaliate directly against the United States after three of its main nuclear facilities were struck overnight. But its ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones has been severely degraded by waves of Israeli strikes since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went to war with Iran a week and a half ago. Read more: What are Iran's options? US bases, warships, and aircraft across the region are well within range of Iranian missiles and drones, but the Pentagon has significantly strengthened its air defences in anticipation of an Iranian counterattack. There are plenty of softer targets, though, such as American embassies or other diplomatic missions. Iran could also choose to mine the Strait of Hormuz - a move that would have global ramifications by disrupting the flow of large amounts of oil and gas, as well as other trade. In addition, the military assets of American allies could be viewed as legitimate targets. The UK has said it played no part in the US attack. But Britain's Ministry of Defence has further increased "force protection" measures for its military bases and personnel in the Middle East to their highest level in the wake of the US strikes, it is understood. What was hit in US attack? In an operation that has been in the planning for years, American B-2 stealth bombers dropped enormous bunker-busting bombs - the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator - on the Fordow nuclear fuel enrichment plant, around 70 miles (110km) southwest of Tehran. It was built under a mountain - about 80 to 90 metres beneath the ground - to be beyond the reach of Israel's armed forces. Only the US Air Force carries munitions large enough to penetrate the rock, earth and concrete to inflict meaningful damage. Also targeted with the enormous munitions was Iran's main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, 155 miles (250km) southeast of the Iranian capital. In addition, US submarines launched TLAM cruise missiles against Natanz and at a site outside the city of Isfahan, which is 260 miles (420km) south of Tehran. Near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel is thought to be stored here. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog, however, said the six buildings at Isfahan that were hit contained little or no nuclear material. Mr Trump has said he ordered the attack to destroy Iran's ability to enrich uranium to a level that could be used to make a nuclear bomb. Tehran has always insisted its nuclear programme is purely for civilian purposes. Analysts warn, though, that it would be very difficult to stop the Iranian nuclear programme through military action alone and that such a move may spur Iran to accelerate efforts to make a bomb if it has managed to protect key components. The Russian foreign ministry on Sunday strongly condemned the American strikes against Iranian nuclear sites as a "dangerous escalation" that could further undermine "regional and global security". "The risk of an escalation of conflict in the Middle East already beset by multiple crises, has increased significantly," it said in a statement. Last week, the Russian government warned the US against joining Israel's war in Iran, saying this "would be an extremely dangerous step with truly unpredictable negative consequences". The remarks came after Mr Putin held a call with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. It means the Russian government in particular - given Tehran's military support to Moscow in the Russian invasion of Ukraine - faces an urgent decision about how to support Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, whose very existence is under threat from Israel.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Russia's economy boomed after the invasion of Ukraine—it's now running out of steam
After years of anticipated economic strife, Russian authorities warn the country is on the precipice of a recession as the Kremlin's bloated military spending amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine exacerbates underlying labor shortages and rising inflation. Russia's wartime economy, once defiant in the face of Western sanctions and geopolitical isolation, is showing signs of fatigue. On Thursday, Russia's economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned the country was 'on the brink' of a recession at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. Reshetnikov's declaration confirmed what several economists foresaw earlier this year: Russia's high-spending war economy, after years of defying predictions of imminent recession, is finally running into the hard limits of labor, productivity, and inflation. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine prompted a slew of sanctions by Western nations, and the near-total departure of Western companies from the nation. But despite predictions of its imminent demise, the country's economy has held up fairly well by pursuing what economists call 'military Keynesianism,' fueling growth through massive defense-related fiscal spending. By pouring a record number of resources into the military-industrial complex, which reached a value of $167 billion last year, the Kremlin spiked industrial production, drove two consecutive years of GDP growth, and lifted wages across war-related sectors. For decades, the Kremlin has allowed Russia's defense budget to grow faster than the country's GDP, but the budget expenditures have increased enormously since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In 2021, the country spent 3.6% of its GDP on national defense, according to the World Bank. Now, 6.3% of the GDP goes to defense spending, nearly double the share in the United States. Russia's military spending bubble has created what Elina Ribakova, economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics describes as a game of musical chairs. 'Everybody's making money. Suddenly, people are enjoying higher incomes, and can get a mortgage, or buy durables. It makes this war popular in a practical, morbid way. You want the music going,' she explains. But, as Nicholas Fenton, associate director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies warns, 'You can only kind of spend so much before you hit structural limits in the economy. And the big hang up for the Russian economy throughout this period has been the country's chronic labor shortage.' Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the country reported 4.75% unemployment in 2021, with levels hitting a record 2.4% low in early 2025, according to state-reported data. But as unemployment has declined, the country has also witnessed a mass exodus of as many as one million residents, and has suffered significant military deaths in the hundreds of thousands. These figures have exacerbated a pre-existing worker deficit in Russia due to a declining working-age population. In 2022 alone, the number of workers aged 16 to 35 fell by 1.33 million, and their share of the labor force was the lowest on record since 1996. These preexisting shortages in the labor market have compounded as citizens were drafted, emigrated, or flocked to defense-related jobs with lucrative bonuses. Although real wages increased, productivity didn't, fueling inflation and the threat of stagflation outside of the military, and stifling investments in non-defense sectors. This spring, Russia's manufacturing sector, an industry that also includes defense enterprises, suffered its steepest downturn in close to three years, dropping 2 points from February to March. Similarly, Russia's industrial production growth hit a two-year low, increasing only 0.2% year-on-year. All the while prices have continued to increase, growing by 9.52% last year compared to 7.42% in 2023. Currently, inflation in Russia sits at nearly 10% and the central bank's hawkish stance has interest rates up to 20% in June. Meanwhile, the central bank's growth forecast is between 1 and 2% for 2025. Interest rates may be shifting, however: senior officials and Russian businessmen have repeatedly called for cuts to promote growth, and President Vladimir Putin has urged policymakers to strike a balance between fighting inflation and boosting growth. Ultimately, for the country's growth potential to change, the country would need to improve labor productivity, a difficult feat amid persisting sanctions and significant inflation, according to Alexander Kolyandr, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. On a per-capita basis, the nation's GDP lags far behind peers, closer to that of Mexico or Turkey than Western Europe. And unlike Germany or Japan, Russia's growth is heavily dependent on volatile commodity exports, such as oil, and state-driven demand. Oil and gas revenues which account for around 20% of the country's GDP, underscoring the precarious nature of its fiscal health. In the first half of 2025, falling oil exports and a dip in global prices forced the Kremlin to revise its budget deficit. But the growing conflict between Israel and Iran has already pushed oil prices higher, offering Russia potential temporary budgetary relief. 'The war in the Middle East is actually pretty good for Putin, but that wouldn't save the economy. It just means that the government may continue to maintain this policy of managed decline,' Kolyandr tells Fortune. Ribakova agrees with Kolyandr. 'We were sort of rubbing our hands as oil was going down because that's the most effective sanction against Russia. And of course, now we've seen the prices pick up,' she says. Russia's oil exports, however, don't provide a solution to the lack of foreign investments in the country and the total retreat of American companies. Even with President Donald Trump's hands-off approach to diplomacy with the Kremlin, Charles Kupchan, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, sees the return of U.S. businesses to Russia as a key bargaining chip. 'Trump is saying to Vladimir Putin, 'if you're ready to make a deal and end this war and agree to a ceasefire in place, I can envisage a return of American companies to Russia. I can envisage the rehabilitation of Vladimir Putin,'' he says. This story was originally featured on
