How the Attacks on Iran Are Part of a Much Bigger Global Struggle
There are so many things to say in the wake of the U.S. bombing of three key Iranian nuclear facilities that it is easy to get lost in the gripping details. So for now, let me try to step back and explore the global, regional and local forces shaping this story. What's really going on here?
It is a very, very big drama, and it is not confined to the Middle East.
To my mind, Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the sole aim of wiping its democracy off the map and absorbing it into Russia, and the attacks on Israel in 2023 by Hamas and Iran's proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq were manifestations of a global struggle between the forces of inclusion and the forces of resistance.
That is a struggle between countries and leaders who see the world and their nations benefiting from more trade, more cooperation against global threats and more decent, if not democratic, governance — versus regimes whose leaders thrive on resisting those trends because conflict enables them to keep their people down, their armies strong and their thieving of their treasuries easy.
The forces of inclusion had steadily been growing stronger. Ukraine in 2022 was getting closer to joining the European Union. This would have been the biggest expansion of a whole and free Europe since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, because it would have added to the West a huge agricultural, technological and military power and left Russia more isolated — and looking more out of step to its own people — than ever.
At the very same time, the Biden administration was making rapid headway on a deal for the U.S. to forge a security alliance with Saudi Arabia. In return, Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel, and Israel would begin talks with the Palestinians on possible statehood. This would have been the biggest expansion of an integrated Middle East since the Camp David peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in 1979.
In short, Ukraine looked poised to join the West, and Israel looked poised to join the East.
So what happened? Putin invaded Ukraine to stop the first movement, and Hamas and Iran's other proxies attacked Israel to stop the second.
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