Stats, Odds To Watch For NBA Finals Game 7 Between Pacers And Thunder
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - JUNE 19: Pascal Siakam (43) of Indiana Pacers in action against Shai ... More Gilgeous-Alexander (2) of Thunder during NBA Finals game 6 between Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on June 19, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana, United States. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The Indiana Pacers managed to force Game 7 in the 2025 NBA Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The two teams will face off in Oklahoma City at 8pm ET tonight. This will be the first NBA Finals Game 7 since 2016 when the Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Golden State Warriors. With two young, high-powered teams on the brink and history hanging in the balance, this finale promises to be a defining moment for both franchises and a potential turning point for the league's next era.
OKC's NBA Finals Home Court Advantage
Oklahoma City Thunder entertainers hold flags outside Paycom Center prior to Game 1 of an NBA ... More basketball Western Conference Finals playoff series between the Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves Tuesday, May 20, 2025, in Oklahoma City. (AP Photo/Nate Billings)
In the crucible of a Game 7, homecourt advantage can be the difference between legacy and heartbreak, and few places amplify that edge like Oklahoma City's 'Loud City.' The Paycom Center is renowned for its intensity. This postseason, that energy has translated into results: the Thunder have dropped just two games at home, continuing a trend from the regular season where they posted a league-best 68-14 record, including a dominant 35-6 mark in OKC. Now, with the franchise committing to OKC through 2053 and a $1 billion next-generation arena on the horizon, that homecourt edge is only gaining momentum. Meanwhile, the Pacers were merely .500 (20-20) on the road during the regular season. Of their 7 losses in the postseason, the Pacers have dropped 4 away from Indianapolis.
NBA Finals Game 7 Final Score
Despite boasting two of the NBA's most potent offenses, a Game 7 between the Thunder and Pacers may defy expectations and turn into a defensive slog. Oklahoma City (120.5 PPG) and Indiana (117.4 PPG) ranked fourth and seventh, respectively, in regular-season scoring, and both have continued that pace in the playoffs with over 115 points per game. But history suggests Game 7s in the NBA Finals don not follow the script of high-scoring shootouts. No team has scored 100 points or more in a Finals Game 7 since 1988 when the Lakers beat the Pistons 108-105.
UNITED STATES - JUNE 14: Basketball: finals, Detroit Pistons Isiah Thomas (11) in action, taking ... More layup vs Los Angeles Lakers, Detroit, MI 6/14/1988 (Photo by Richard Mackson/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (SetNumber: X36723 TK7)
The oddsmakers do not seem deterred by this Game 7 scoring trend, as the over/under for total points still reflects the offensive firepower of both teams. The Thunder are set at 110.5 and the Pacers at 103.5. These totals would diverge from the recent historical norm for Finals Game 7s. This suggests either confidence in the modern pace-and-space era breaking tradition, or a reflection of betting behavior more than predictive accuracy.
The spread is set at OKC (-7), a number that interestingly mirrors the long-term trend in NBA Finals Game 7s, where the average margin of victory is just 6.9 points. That suggests the bookmakers see this matchup not only as favoring the Thunder, but also as aligning with the historical precedent of tightly contested, low-margin finales.
MVP Odds And NBA Finals Winner
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - JUNE 13: Tyrese Haliburton #0 of the Indiana Pacers attempts a layup ... More against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the fourth quarter in Game Four of the 2025 NBA Finals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on June 13, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by)
There is a clear alignment between the betting markets and predictive models when it comes to Oklahoma City's outlook in Game 7, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP chances are at the heart of it. ESPN's analytics give the Thunder a 60% probability of winning the title, while SGA's Finals MVP odds of -195 translate to an implied probability of 66.1%, slightly exceeding the team's own win projection. That small gap reflects a logical correlation: if OKC wins, SGA is overwhelmingly likely to be the reason why. He's been the Thunder's offensive engine and clutch-time closer throughout the regular season and postseason. In effect, SGA's MVP odds serve as a more player-specific expression of Oklahoma City's championship chances.
Thunder Favored In NBA Finals
OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA - JUNE 16: Jalen Williams #8 of the Oklahoma City Thunder celebrates a dunk ... More against the Indiana Pacers during the first quarter in Game Five of the 2025 NBA Finals at Paycom Center on June 16, 2025 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by)
As Game 7 in the NBA Finals looms, all signs point to Oklahoma City holding a meaningful edge. The Paycom Center's intensity, the Thunder's dominant home record, and the consistent pattern of low-scoring, tightly contested Finals deciders converge to form a perfect storm of opportunity for OKC. Add in the betting market's confidence, the narrow spread, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP odds aligning with win projections. Whether they break the 100-point barrier or grind out another Finals slugfest, Oklahoma City's mix of talent, homecourt fervor, and late-game poise may be what ultimately tips the balance in their favor.
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