Will the new era in space be one of rivalry?
https://arab.news/p2uac
In five years' time, the International Space Station will be retired. This symbol of peaceful collaboration is set to exit space at a time of increased and convergent geopolitical and technological competition on Earth. In uninterrupted operation for more than two decades, the space station has hosted thousands of scientific experiments in microgravity and welcomed 250 astronauts from 20 nations. A joint project between the US' NASA, Russia's Roscosmos, the European Space Agency, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and the Canadian Space Agency, it included participation from 15 countries.
Needless to say, the world and space are today heading in a different direction. What will space look like in five years? What will Earth's geopolitics look like in five years? Will there be the same opportunities for collaboration in research and science in space? The answers are starting to unfold and, noting the importance of space in terms of global communications and intelligence, we are noticing the erasure of commercialization within the space sector. In short, it is back to single-use and not even dual-use.
Today, the only country ready for the post-International Space Station era is China. The Tiangong space station, which has been fully functioning since late 2022, is a significant step in China's ascent to prominence as a global space power. Tiangong is, for now, composed of three modules: the Tianhe core module and two laboratories, Wentian and Mengtian. Just like the International Space Station, it orbits Earth at a distance of about 400 km.
It can support more than 100 scientific studies, ranging from biology to materials science, while three astronauts are hosted at a time on six-month rotations. The plan is to expand the station to six modules. This would mean doubling its current size. Despite repeated delays, China also plans to launch the Xuntian space telescope, which will orbit alongside Tiangong and periodically dock for maintenance. This means China is establishing a self-sufficient infrastructure.
Sun Zhibin, of the National Space Science Centre in Beijing, last week said China is creating a rapid-response space defense system to detect and drive away suspect spacecraft. It aims to use a tiny robotic thruster to grab hold of unknown objects and propel them away from the Tiangong space station or other vital space equipment. There is no doubt this could also play an offensive role.
So, where does that leave the rest of the world? What is the US' post-space station plan? What is Europe's?
There are several private American companies working on what are defined as commercial space stations. Axiom Space is creating a modular station that will initially be attached to the International Space Station, before aiming for independent operation by 2031 with a focus on research, manufacturing and tourism.
The Tiangong space station is a significant step in China's ascent to prominence as a global space power
Khaled Abou Zahr
NanoRacks, under the Starlab project alongside Voyager Space and Lockheed Martin, plans a free-flying station dedicated to science and industrial applications, targeted for launch in 2028. And Blue Origin, alongside Sierra Space and Boeing, is developing the Orbital Reef station, envisioned as a mixed-use space 'business park' supporting research, manufacturing and tourism. With a modular design, it is expected to be operational by 2030. More recently, Vast has announced its plans for Haven-1, the first commercial space station, which is set for launch in 2026. It will support short missions with high-speed internet connectivity via Starlink.
The big issues are whether these companies will be able to deliver on time and whether the projects will be financially successful. Some have already faced issues.
These space station projects are supported by NASA's goal of transitioning low Earth orbit activities to the private sector. Yet, we need to be realistic. While it is clear that China's approach is more state-led and centralized, all these private companies are dependent on government contracts. More than 75 percent of the revenues for space hardware, or what are known as upstream companies, are generated by space agencies, ministries of defense and intelligence services. The competition certainly allows for better pressure on deliverables and prices, but the source is ultimately the same: government.
Axiom Space has raised more than $505 million in private funding, including a $350 million Series-C round in 2023. Additionally, the company has secured more than $2.2 billion in customer contracts, mainly from government entities. In 2021, NanoRacks was awarded a NASA contract worth $160 million through the Commercial Low-Earth Orbit Destinations program to support the development of Starlab. Blue Origin was also awarded $130 million by NASA. China, meanwhile, benefits from its purchasing power parity, which multiplies its achievements as companies burn cash.
With the way geopolitics is evolving on Earth, one can expect that these space stations will serve more than just science. Satellites have a critical role in modern defense for secure communications, surveillance and navigation, as well as acting as early warning systems. Space-based assets are also vital in conflict scenarios. Their importance has been clear in the war in Ukraine, where satellite imagery and communications have proved decisive on the battlefield, especially with drones.
This confirms that space has become a battle domain as crucial as land, sea, air and cyber. Hence, there is a need for both defending against and developing capabilities to disrupt or disable adversaries' satellites through cyberattacks, jamming or even antisatellite weapons. This is essential for deterrence.
Recently analyzed swabs taken in May 2023 found an unknown bacterium, Niallia tiangongensis, aboard China's Tiangong station. Similar microbial challenges have been faced on the International Space Station, where strains like Acinetobacter pittii have shown signs of antibiotic resistance. This highlights the shared responsibility to manage risks as both national and commercial space habitats expand. Rather than competing in isolation, nations and private companies may find that collaboration on biosecurity and research offers some common ground.
• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Al Arabiya
34 minutes ago
- Al Arabiya
Japan and South Korea Mark 60 Years of Ties Despite Lingering Tension and Political Uncertainty
Japan and South Korea are marking the 60th anniversary of the normalization of their diplomatic relations. The two Asian powers, rivals and neighbors, have often had little to celebrate, much of their rancor linked to Japan's brutal colonial rule of Korea in the early 20th century. Things have gotten better in recent years, but both nations – each a strong ally of the US – now face political uncertainty and a growing unease about the future of their ties. South Korea's new liberal president, Lee Jae-myung, is determined to break sharply from the policies of his disgraced predecessor, Yoon Suk-yeol, who now faces a trial on charges of leading an insurrection over his imposition of martial law in December. Relations with Japan, however, are one area where Lee, who describes himself as a pragmatist in foreign policy, may find himself cautiously building on Yoon's approach. Before his removal from office in April, the conservative former president tried to repair relations with Japan. Yoon wanted to also tighten the countries' three-way security cooperation with Washington to counter North Korean nuclear threats. In 2023, Yoon announced a South Korea–funded compensation plan for colonial-era forced laborers. That decision caused a strong backlash from victims and their supporters, who had demanded direct payments from Japanese companies and a fresh apology from Tokyo. Yoon's outreach boosted tourism and business ties, but there's still lingering resentment in South Korea that Japan failed to reciprocate Seoul's diplomatic concession by addressing historical grievances more sincerely. While advocating for pragmatism and problem-solving in foreign policy, Lee has also long criticized Japan for allegedly clinging to its imperialist past and blamed that for hurting cooperation between the countries. Some experts say the stability of the countries' improved ties could soon be tested, possibly around the August 15 anniversary of Korea's liberation from Japanese colonial rule at the end of World War II, when Lee is expected to publicly address the nation's painful history with Japan. Some in Seoul want Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to mark the anniversary with a stronger statement of remorse over Japan's wartime past to put bilateral ties on firmer ground. While wartime history will always linger in the background of Seoul–Tokyo relations, Lee and Ishiba may face a more immediate concern: US President Donald Trump's rising tariffs and other 'America First' trade policies. South Korea's Hankyoreh newspaper, in an editorial this week, called for South Korea and Japan to collaborate immediately on a joint response to Trump's policies, arguing that the proposed US tariffs on automobiles pose similar threats to both countries' trade-dependent economies. Ishiba, eager to improve ties with Seoul, has acknowledged Japan's wartime aggression and has shown more empathy to Asian victims than his recent predecessors. His first encounter with Lee seemed positive despite worries in Japan about South Korea's stance under a liberal leader known for attacks on Japan's wartime past. Lee, in that meeting with Ishiba at the G7, likened the two countries to neighbors sharing the same front yard and called for building a future-oriented relationship that moves beyond their small differences and disagreements. Ishiba and Lee agreed to closely communicate and to cooperate on a range of issues, including North Korea's nuclear and missile development. Under a 1965 normalization treaty, Japan provided $500 million in economic assistance to South Korea, saying all wartime compensation issues were settled. However, historical issues, including forced labor and sexual abuse of Korean women during the war, have disrupted ties over the decades, while South Korea has become an Asian power and a rival to Japan, and while Tokyo, especially during the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's rule, has promoted revisionist views. Japan has since offered atonement money twice for the so-called 'comfort women:' an earlier semi-private fund and a second one unilaterally dissolved by former South Korean President Moon Jae-in's liberal government. Things have improved in recent years, and Japan is watching to see whether Lee sticks with his conservative predecessors' more conciliatory diplomacy or returns to the confrontation that marked previous liberal governments. Cooperation between the two sides is more essential than ever to overcome their shared problems, such as worsening regional security and Trump's tariffs that have shaken free trade systems, Japan's largest-circulation newspaper, Yomiuri, said in a recent editorial. At a 60th anniversary reception in Tokyo, Ishiba said that he sees a bright future in the relationship. He expressed hope also for cooperation in common challenges such as low birth rates and declining populations.
Arab News
4 hours ago
- Arab News
NASA spacecraft around the moon photographs the crash site of a Japanese company's lunar lander
CAPE CANAVERAL, Florida: A NASA spacecraft around the moon has photographed the crash site of a Japanese company's lunar lander. NASA released the pictures Friday, two weeks after ispace's lander slammed into the moon. The images show a dark smudge where the lander, named Resilience, and its mini rover crashed into Mare Frigoris or Sea of Cold, a volcanic region in the moon's far north. A faint halo around the area was formed by the lunar dirt kicked up by the impact. NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter captured the scene last week. The crash was the second failure in two years for Tokyo-based ispace. Company officials plan to hold a news conference next week to explain what doomed the latest mission, launched from Cape Canaveral in January.
Arab News
10 hours ago
- Arab News
Saudi foreign minister holds talks with Egyptian and Pakistani counterparts on OIC sidelines
ISTANBUL: Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan held separate meetings on Saturday with his Egyptian and Pakistani counterparts on Saturday. The discussions were held on the sidelines of the 51st session of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation Council of Foreign Ministers in Istanbul. During talks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, the two sides reviewed the close relations between the Kingdom and Egypt and discussed regional developments and their impact on the security of the region, the Saudi Press Agency reported. Prince Faisal also met with Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. The discussions focused on bilateral ties, as well as regional and international developments and ongoing efforts to address them, SPA added. Both meetings were attended by Prince Musab bin Mohammed Al-Farhan, advisor to the Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, and Fahd bin Asaad Abu Al-Nasr, Saudi ambassador to Turkiye.
