Deterrence without limits: China's nuclear buildup surges; stockpile may soon match US
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China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal and could soon match the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) strength of the United States or Russia by the end of the decade, reported by South China Morning Post, citing the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's (SIPRI) latest yearbook.
The report describes China's nuclear build-up as the fastest in the world. China's growing capability may change the strategic calculations of the US and its allies, increasing the risk of a new nuclear arms race.
600 and g
rowing
SIPRI, reportedly, estimates that China has added roughly 100 warheads each year since 2023, bringing its total stockpile to at least 600 warheads by early 2025. The report warns that this number is expected to continue rising in the coming years.
Of these, 132 warheads are already assigned to launchers that are being actively loaded.
Global nuclear-race
As of January 2025, the world's total nuclear warheads stood at about 12,241, with the US and Russia controlling around 90% of them, according to the report. While China's stockpile remains smaller, the rapid pace of its expansion is raising global concerns. The US and Russia, meanwhile, continue modernising their own arsenals, along with other nuclear-armed nations including the UK, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
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End of arms control
The nuclear race is further complicated by the upcoming expiration of the New START treaty, signed in 2010 between Washington and Moscow, which limits deployed strategic warheads and launchers. With the treaty set to expire in February 2026 and no replacement yet in sight, experts fear that both the US and Russia may also increase their deployed nuclear forces, removing one of the last formal limits on nuclear stockpiles.
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