David Rosenberg: How did the Canadian market hit a new record? Gold exposure has helped

Despite a flurry of twists and turns in the constantly evolving tariff saga, a period of relative calm has ensued after the chaos of tariff announcements and the early April market selloff, triggered by 'Liberation Day.' As the third-largest trading partner of the United States, Canada has fared relatively well after being excluded from the Liberation Day tariffs and having Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement-compliant products excluded from the 25 per cent 'fentanyl' tariffs.
Helped by the 90-day tariff reprieve, set to expire July 9, the ongoing constructive tone in tariff negotiations helped the Canadian cyclical bucket, as industrials (driven by another tailwind explained below) and financials performed well during this timeframe.
It was a complete reversal of what we experienced in February and March, when market sentiment was dominated by the height of tariff fears and defensive plays (such as dollar stores and utilities) were outperforming. So much so that we saw both the S&P/TSX industrials index and the S&P/TSX financials index post double-digit returns during these 17 trading days — a nice juicy return from a sector rotation perspective.
To a large extent, what investors liked in the latest banking sector reporting season was the move to get ahead of the consumer delinquency cycle and sharply bolster loan loss reserve provisioning.
In turn, this helped the overall Canadian benchmark, given its relative valuation support, namely, trading at about a 16x forward P/E multiple versus more than 21x for the S&P 500.
From a sector-positioning perspective, another crucial pillar of strength was derived from the gold miners' price performance, boosted by the recent rally in gold prices to around US$3,400 per ounce and up nearly 30 per cent year to date.
In contrast to the S&P 500, which has but one miner in the index (Newmont Corp.), which accounts for 0.1 per cent of the market cap, Canada is replete with 27 members that comprise a much higher 8.9 per cent share of the S&P/TSX composite index. The exposure the Canadian index has to precious metals is so precious that the sector has been responsible for half of the 7.3 per cent advance so far in 2025.
Gold has continued to benefit from the convergence of structural tailwinds, such as the global monetary debasement, sovereign fiscal largesse and its traditional role as a macro hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. Rising bullion prices, combined with still relatively low valuations for the gold miners, have provided extra torque to the positive contribution by the materials sector during this timeframe.
A case in point is Newmont, the largest miner by market capitalization, which trades at a 13x NTM P/E, vs. its five-year historical average of 20x.
According to CIBC Capital Markets, mining has accounted for approximately 40 per cent of new Canadian issuances on a year-to-date basis. Consequently, this strong price performance from the precious metals sector (comprising about 11 per cent of the S&P/TSX composite) has resulted in underweight generalist funds adding exposure.
Additionally, ongoing gold purchases by central banks and governments have continued to support gold prices and mining shares. According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., global central banks are buying 80 metric tons of gold monthly, and sovereign wealth funds are collectively acquiring 1,000 tons annually — about a quarter of yearly global production. We remind you that these strategic market players are long-term investors who happen to be price-indiscriminate.
On April 28, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party formed a minority government in a remarkable comeback from early polling deficits. The global investing community took an optimistic view that he can reinvigorate the Canadian economy and navigate a challenging diplomatic environment with its neighbour south of the 49th parallel.
During the campaign, the Liberals proposed an activist fiscal agenda that set out nearly $130 billion in new spending initiatives spread over several important themes, including infrastructure building, defence spending, housing affordability, internal trade and economic development, and the fast-tracking of resource project development.
One can see that the central theme here is to pivot Canada towards domestic economic resilience after relying on a deepening U.S. relationship for 80 years. Moreover, Carney proved his ability to be firm yet diplomatic in his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, and that may reflect early signs of tensions thawing between Washington and Ottawa.
From a stock market perspective, this percolated into a strong showing for the S&P/TSX capped industrials index, which includes select engineering and consulting (E&C), infrastructure and aerospace and defence stocks, posting an increase of approximately 10 per cent.
In the famous words of Walter Wriston, 'Capital goes where it is welcome and stays where it is well treated.' In this sense, both domestic and foreign investors took notice and started pricing the change in leadership as a catalyst for streamlining permitting processes, accelerating infrastructure approvals and reducing regulatory friction — key enablers of capital investment and long-term earnings growth.
In the aftermath of Trump's tariff announcements and threats to annex Canada as the 51st state, Canadians exhibited a collective push to support domestic products and services, strengthen local businesses and reduce reliance on foreign imports.
According to Statistics Canada, air travel to the south of the border posted a drastic 24 per cent year-over-year decrease in May. Travel by land fared even worse, posting a 38 per cent year-over-year decline in the same period, marking the fifth consecutive month of declines versus the prior year. This meant that more Canadians were spending money at home, buying into the Buy Canadian theme, and providing a boost to domestic retailer margins in the process.
At the company-specific level, we heard an apparent read-through of this economically nationalistic trend from Loblaw Cos. Ltd., which reported a 12 per cent uptick in sales of Canadian-made products. In the company's first-quarter earnings call, one of the key takeaways was when chief executive Per Bank said, 'Canadians care deeply about the region of the product they purchase and we continue to actually seek out Canadian manufacturers for the products we sell.'
Additionally, he emphasized that data from Loblaw's online grocery service showed a clear pivot by shoppers towards the Buy Canadian theme via both shopping intentions and actual dollars spent. A case when the soft data were actually in sync with the hard data!
We heard similar management commentary from the likes of Metro Inc. and George Weston Ltd., with Metro saying that 'sales of Canadian products (are) outpacing total sales.'
From an equity market perspective, we saw this theme play out in the price performance of the S&P/TSX consumer staples index, which was up by 10.6 per cent, and acted as another fundamental pillar of strength that has helped the S&P/TSX composite wipe out its losses following April's global nosedive.
All in, a confluence of fundamental factors pushed the S&P/TSX composite to become one of the first global benchmarks to get back to its pre-'Liberation Day' levels. Thus, the Canadian benchmark has benefitted from sectoral composition and a cyclical/value bent, an economically nationalistic trend that buoyed domestic retail and a newly elected government with a pro-growth fiscal playbook. Global markets have added a new term to the investing lexicon: The Great White Long Trade.
Surprise job gains in Canada conceal economic rot
Bank of Canada has made a big mistake
The Canadian market has unique characteristics compared to the U.S. in that it generates far greater dividend and earnings yields. The relative valuations in the Canadian stock market remain compelling: you get paid to take on equity risk when you compare it to the alternatives in cash and bonds. The same cannot be said for U.S. markets.
David Rosenberg is founder and president of independent research firm Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. Alp Erdogan is an external research consultant there. To receive more of David Rosenberg's insights and analysis, you can sign up for a complimentary, one-month trial on the Rosenberg Research website.

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Jalila Singerff: I'm always learning and evolving, but I'd like to believe I'm carefully honing in on my superpower of deeply connecting with people across many walks of life. I grew up in a family from Buenos Aires and have had the luxury of working with some of the most innovative and strategic minds in the business. That balance — of human connection and high-level strategy — is what drives everything I do. I spent years living in cities like Montréal, Vancouver, Miami, Spain, and Buenos Aires, and developed what few in the industry truly have: a deep, lived understanding of cultural nuance. Every city taught me how people engage with storytelling differently, how values show up in fashion, music, politics, or even how a crowd reacts to art. It makes you listen more closely. And that intuition shapes how I craft campaigns today. 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Nostalgia in a campaign. Not just throwbacks just for the sake of the throwback, but the throwback taps into an emotional equity. Using the past to say something really bold about the future. If that's a really retro, cool campaigns that hits Gen Z, or the reboot of a legacy brand, or Nike bringing back all those football players for a commercial they're doing right now, Ronaldinho and a few other ones are in there, it resonates and it hits deep. That creates the layers of storytelling and that is what makes a brand campaign successful. That's the blend of the cultural fluency, creator strategy, earned instincts. It's all about data analysts, storytelling, even kind of just being like a trend hunter or trend jacking, you have to move fast. A new cycle doesn't wait for anybody. Neither does the algorithm. So, the campaign has to have a little bit of depth, speed, a little bit of soul, a little bit of story, and it's going to land. Baltin: What have been your favorite campaigns that you worked on? And why did you go from fashion to an agency? Singerff: When you're at the agency side of things, you are at the center point of PR evolving. You are seeing it from every direction. You're working with so many different voices of brands and tones. That puts you in a position to automatically have to understand so many types of ways of building a brand's DNA and executing it and it should be done with awareness into building ROI and a smart campaign. So, you need to, and this exists for all industries, whether it be fashion immersive experiences or music, there's a blueprint that works and you pivot and change to fit the specific industries. But all smart campaigns need to align with a launch timeline, conversion goals, final stages. They all need to use analytics to inform media pitching and message performance. The essence of creating a strong story will live on in whatever brand you're working with. It's just understanding how to turn on that cultural listening. What we do really well at Jive is that we're constantly plugged in. We are looking at any trending moments and that's from TikTok to CNN, to very different channels saying very different things in very different ways, but they are tapping into their own audiences that are going to resonate with some of our brands. Again, the beauty of an agency, you're working with a huge wide range of people. Understanding the media shifts is a really big thing that we talk about. There are new platforms coming up every day. There's huge turnover in newsrooms. There's a lot of AI assisted platforms and tools which you lean into, and audience sentiment is also huge. Social listening, creator communities, creator economy, the comment sections. There are a lot of cultural conversations happening. Campaigns often have to lead to emotion and some sort of narrative, but they have to just build earned media moments into everything they do. And I think that exists, whether it be an artist or a brand or a museum opening. They all share the same approach to building a smart campaign. Baltin: What successful campaigns have you enjoyed? What kind of brands or companies do you like working with? Singerff: I really enjoyed working with the museum. There's actually quite a few that I've enjoyed. I've worked now with so many diverse sets of sectors and spaces and that comes with its own set of thought leaders and its own substance and just different ways of building in longevity with different clients. But the museum, which is the Edelman Fossil Park and Museum, what was really unique about that experience is that we started working with them a full year ahead of its grand opening. That's a pretty long runway, which is a huge luxury to have, and it's a massive strategic advantage. So, it allowed us to fully immerse ourselves in the brand, understand its voice, understand its cultural significance, but also they have a scientific significance. We could build a deeply layered narrative that we could flex across a lot of different media verticals. The process of that was so enjoyable. I personally loved working with them. We executed something that not all campaigns get, but we've had three really deliberate phases, which was the tease, launch, and sustained phase. They each have their own goals or messaging, their own press opportunities, but it allowed us to do a lot of real-time media hooks. And we got to tap into a lot of different types of media platforms and caliber of media throughout each phase. So, for example, the launch phase saw all of the top tier national editors because they got to come in and do exclusive walks of the museum -- New York Times, Forbes, Wall Street Journal, NBC, the front page of USA Today. And now that we're in the sustained phase we've started working with a lot of consumer lifestyle and entertainment media. That's because we're focusing on converting ticket sales so that takes us into Buzzfeed and The Today Show we secured a segment with Late Night with Seth Meyers. We got a mention on the Joe Rogan podcast. So, the narrative shifts. It's a different group of outlets. When you're working with a product, like a museum, the story is then driven through the actual product itself. So, you're getting the product in people's hands. It's a tangible approach. You're sending it to key journalists. You're sending it to key influencers. Or you can send the journalist to the museum. The goal is the same, you want them to experience it. You want them to have some sort of one-on-one touch point with it so that they can create their own opinion about it, they can approach it in a way that's authentic to them and that's what makes the best story. Baltin: Going back to the opening question, why publicity, how'd you get into this? Singerff: I started off in business marketing. I actually was going to start off in fashion design and then I had a change of heart, and I went into business marketing. I started interning at magazines and I interned at a travel magazine. I was heading up the food section and I did an internship with a fashion blog website. This was in 2008, so it was the time that they were all really surfacing and becoming big; I coordinated all the photoshoots and production side of things. I minored in journalism. So, that's the area I thought I was going to go into. I got an internship with a Canadian woman's wear brand called Joseph Ribkoff in Montreal on their PR team. After just a couple of weeks, they offered me the job and I was off. My career in PR started then. Baltin: What did you like about it? Singerff: What I love about PR is that I'm still working with magazines and publishers and journalists, and I'm still getting to create stories and create the narratives, but I'm on another side of it, which back then, I don't think I knew existed. I didn't know what that would mean, that it would put all of my interests in this perfectly aligned way that actually was a career for me. It was just a happy accident that I ended up in PR and then I realized, 'Oh, I still get to work with all the people I've been working with up until this point, but from a different perspective. I loved it. I fell in love with PR from day one. I started off in fashion PR. I was traveling to Europe multiple times a year. I was doing the shows in Europe. I was working with stylists and photographers and lots of editors and fashion magazines and creating stories out of clothing. I just fell in love with the process of branding and getting to tell a brand's story. I also fell in love with traveling and getting to connect with so many different kinds of people. That is a huge plus of PR, of marketing in general, being in the industry and having the opportunity to meet as many people as you do and it's a big passion of mine. Any publicist would probably say the same thing. We're social butterflies. Baltin: What do you want to achieve as a publicist? Singerff: You ultimately want to feel really content and proud of your own work and you want to make sure you're doing everything ethically and you're doing it in a way that is delivering a lot of pride for the person that you're representing. So being successful is accomplishing that and having the ability to do your job and do it great, and instill confidence in others that are watching you do it because I think leading by example and having some sort of positive impact on others is one of the highest forms of feeling proud of your work and just telling great f**king stories with great people. That's successful to me.