United States had 1.5 million excess deaths following COVID-19 pandemic

Excess deaths in the United States have continued to mount following the COVID-19 pandemic. Photo by Adobe Stock/HealthDay News
Excess deaths in the United States have continued to mount following the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to an early demise for hundreds of thousands, a new study says.
More than 1.5 million "missing Americans" died in 2022 and 2023, deaths that would have been averted if U.S. death rates matched those of other wealthy nations, researchers reported Friday in JAMA Health Forum.
In fact, nearly 1 of every 2 deaths among people younger than 65 (46%) in 2023 would not have occurred if U.S. death rates mirrored those of peer nations, researchers found.
"The U.S. has been in a protracted health crisis for decades, with health outcomes far worse than other high-income countries," lead researcher Jacob Bor, an associate professor of global health and epidemiology at the Boston University School of Public Health, said in a news release.
"Imagine the lives saved, the grief and trauma averted, if the U.S. simply performed at the average of our peers," Bor added. "One out of every 2 U.S. deaths under 65 years is likely avoidable. Our failure to address this is a national scandal."
For the study, researchers tracked death record data from the United States and 21 other high-income nations from 1980 to 2023, including more than 107 million U.S. deaths and 230 million deaths among the peer nations.
The other wealthy nations included Australia, Canada, France, Japan and Britain, researchers said.
Overall, the United States had nearly 15 million excess deaths during the four decades in question, when stacking its death rate against that of other wealthy countries, results show.
In 1980, the United States actually outperformed other nations, with 42,000 fewer deaths than might be expected compared to the death rates of peer nations.
But in 1990, the United States had more than 89,000 excess deaths, leaping to nearly 355,000 in 2000 and 409,000 in 2010, results show.
Excess deaths peaked in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 1 million dead in 2020 and nearly 1.1 million in 2021, researchers said.
But excess deaths remained high even after scientists conquered COVID, with more than 820,000 in 2022 and 705,000 in 2023, the study says.
"The 700,000 excess American deaths in 2023 is exactly what you'd predict based on prior rising trends, even if there had never been a pandemic," said researcher Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Minnesota.
"These deaths are driven by long-running crises in drug overdose, gun violence, car collisions, and preventable cardiometabolic deaths," she added in a news release.
In 2023, needless excess deaths accounted for nearly 23% of all deaths in America, researchers report.
These excess deaths show how the policies of other peer nations better protect the health of their citizens, senior researcher Andrew Stokes said in a news release.
"Other countries show that investing in universal healthcare, strong safety nets, and evidence-based public health policies leads to longer, healthier lives," said Stokes, an associate professor of global health and epidemiology at the Boston University School of Public Health.
"Unfortunately, the U.S. faces unique challenges; public distrust of government and growing political polarization have made it harder to implement policies that have proven successful elsewhere," he added.
The executive actions and policies enacted under the second Trump administration threaten to drive excess deaths even higher, Bor said.
For example, the U.S. House of Representatives' approved version of legislation containing President Donald Trump's second-term agenda includes potential cuts to Medicare and Medicaid that would make excess deaths even more likely.
"Deep cuts to public health, scientific research, safety net programs, environmental regulations, and federal health data could lead to a further widening of health disparities between the US and other wealthy nations, and growing numbers of excess -- and utterly preventable -- deaths to Americans," Bor said.
More information
KFF has more on U.S. life expectancy compared to other nations.
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