The political tug-of-war at the center of Trump's Iran decision: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today's edition, Andrea Mitchell breaks down the critical decision facing President Donald Trump on the Israel-Iran conflict. Plus, Lawrence Hurley examines the questions that a major Supreme Court ruling on transgender rights left unanswered.
Programming note: We're taking a break for Juneteenth tomorrow and will be back in your inbox on Friday, June 20.
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— Adam Wollner
As President Donald Trump considers whether the U.S. will strike Iran — likely the most important decision of his second term, one that could remake the landscape of the Middle East — allies and adversaries are taking sides, both at home and abroad.
'I may do it. I may not do it,' Trump told reporters outside the White House earlier today. 'Nobody knows what I'm going to do.'
The president openly admired the effectiveness of Israel's initial airstrikes against Iran, even though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly launched his strikes to interrupt Trump's nuclear diplomacy with Tehran.
But after being rebuffed in April when he sought Trump's approval for a joint operation against Iran's nuclear program, Netanyahu could be on the verge of persuading an American president to provide the B-2s to deliver the 30,000-pound 'bunker buster' bombs capable of penetrating the concrete fortress believed to conceal Tehran's most dangerous stockpile of nearly-weapons-grade uranium, based on new Israeli intelligence. Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., the vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on MSNBC today that conflicts with a briefing to Congress this week that the U.S. intelligence has not changed: Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon.
Israel's argument is that it's now or never. It has decapitated two of Iran's proxies — Hezbollah and Hamas — and toppled the Assad regime in Syria, and its retaliatory strikes last year eliminated many of Iran's air defenses. Israel's air force could damage Iran's above-ground nuclear sites and missile bases if it struck now, before Iran repairs its defenses, but can't eliminate the nuclear threat without U.S. bombs and bombers to reach the most critical underground facility.
That has created a political tug-of-war for the heart and mind of Trump, who has publicly yearned for the Nobel Prize, seeing himself as a peacemaker who could bring Iran back into the community of non-terrorist nations and avoid another 'forever war.' Fighting that vision is his competing impulse to join Israel in eliminating the nuclear threat once and for all. And Tehran's leaders clearly misjudged how patient Trump would be with their refusal to compromise in the negotiations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin remains on the sidelines, preoccupied with his own war. Jordan's King Abdullah II and French President Emmanuel Macron strongly oppose U.S. involvement. Trump has been consulting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Gulf's most influential leader.
At home, the MAGA base is divided, with Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., leading the hawks and a growing cohort of Republican isolationists — even in Trump's Cabinet — opposed. Most prominently, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard posted a highly produced anti-war video on her official X account, reportedly infuriating her boss.
Critics worry about unintended consequences of military action, repeating former Secretary of State Colin Powell's rueful warning before the U.S. war in Iraq. It's like the Pottery Barn rule: If you break it, you own it.
Catch up on our latest reporting on the Israel-Iran conflict:
Amid escalating global tensions, Trump struggles to be a 'peacemaker,' by Peter Nicholas, Peter Alexander, Jonathan Allen and Dan De Luce
U.S.-backed regime change has a checkered past — Iran may be no different, by Alexander Smith
Will Israel's airstrikes cause the collapse of the Iranian regime?, by Dan De Luce and Alexander Smith
Tucker Carlson clashes with Sen. Ted Cruz: 'You don't know anything about Iran,' by Megan Lebowitz
Follow live updates →
The Supreme Court ruling that upheld a Tennessee law banning certain care for transgender youth left various legal questions open, even as other laws aimed at people based on gender identity, including those involving sports and military-service bans, head toward the justices.
That means that even though transgender rights activists face a setback, the ruling does not control how other cases will ultimately turn out.
'This decision casts little if any light on how a majority of justices will analyze or rule on other issues,' said Shannon Minter, a lawyer at the National Center for LGBTQ Rights.
Most notably, the court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, did not address the key issue of whether such laws should automatically be reviewed by courts with a more skeptical eye, an approach known as 'heightened scrutiny.' Practically, that would mean laws about transgender people would have to clear a higher legal bar to be upheld.
The justices skipped answering that question because the court found that Tennessee's law banning gender transition care for minors did not discriminate against transgender people at all.
But other cases are likely to raise that issue more directly, meaning close attention will be paid to what the justices said in the various written opinions, as well as what they did not say.
Read more from Lawrence →
↔️ Holding the line: The Federal Reserve left interest rates at their current levels as the central bank continued to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs on the U.S. economy. Read more →
⚖️ SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's authority to approve a facility in Texas to store spent fuel. Read more →
💉 New sheriff in town: Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has ushered in appointees to a federal vaccine advisory panel who have expressed skepticism about the value and safety of vaccines. Read more →
🤔 Regrets, they have a few: Most of the seven Senate Democrats who voted to confirm Kristi Noem as secretary of the Department of Homeland Security are now critical of her performance, with some saying they'd like a do-over. Read more →
📊 Survey says: Americans are divided on their views of artificial intelligence, with no meaningful differences based on age and partisanship, according to the NBC News Decision Desk Poll. The country's attitudes about AI today mirror poll answers about the rise of the internet in the '90s.
🔵 2026 watch: Bridget Brink, the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, announced she is running for Congress as a Democrat for a competitive Michigan House seat that Republicans flipped in 2024. Read more →
🗳️ About last night: Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi won her party's nomination for lieutenant governor of Virginia in a tight race against a fellow state senator and a former Richmond mayor. Read more →
That's all From the Politics Desk for now. Today's newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Dylan Ebs.
If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
And if you're a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com

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Saturday was actually a very difficult day to endure.' Holed up with his wife Valerie and their family in Herzliya, a coastal town north of Tel Aviv, the Chief Rabbi could only anxiously wait until an hour after sunset on Saturday, when, in line with Jewish law, they could use electronic devices again and find out exactly what had happened. The couple have four sons and 17 grandchildren, some of whom live in Israel. Their daughter Liora died in 2011, aged 30, leaving behind her husband and two children. 'We needed to wait until 8.32pm – that time was etched into our minds, because that would be the time when we'd be able to hear what had transpired over the previous 25 hours.' With no indication when he can return to the UK, Mirvis is now effectively in lockdown and having to resort to Zoom meetings, like this remote interview. 'The comparison to Covid is quite a strong one,' he says, expressing disappointment that he has been separated from the community he leads in Britain. Isn't it much scarier than the pandemic, though, having to run for your life at all hours of the day and night? The softly spoken cleric calmly responds: 'Well, you see, this is not the first time that Israelis have been in such a situation. It's been going on for years and years continuously, prior to October 7. So taking cover in a shelter is a regular feature of life in Israel, and… I've needed to do this on quite a number of occasions when I've been a tourist here over the years. So there was hardly any element of surprise, only the question of what will be the extent of damage to human life and to infrastructure.' Describing the desperate dash to safety as soon as the sirens go off, the 68-year-old adds: 'Iran is purposefully using missiles which take 12 minutes, and therefore there isn't a lot of time. You basically have four minutes [after Israel's sirens ring out] so there's a scramble. All modern houses are fitted with a safe room but many people living in older houses don't have such a room in their home and therefore need to go to a public shelter nearby. That has been exceptionally challenging, and very often, they don't reach that public shelter in time. That has resulted in some of the casualties in Israel over recent days.' The Chief Rabbi has been able to make use of a safe room in the home in which he is staying. 'You come into the safe room, you close the door, and then you wait for a message to say all clear. And that can take anything from 20 minutes to an hour. That's basically the rhythm of life. And it can happen at any time of the day, 24/7, and it is highly disruptive for people of all ages, particularly children who don't really know what's going on. This is a time of deep anxiety.' The Chief Rabbi says that his experience has renewed his focus on the ordeal of the 53 hostages who remain in captivity in Gaza. 'It's now 622 days they've been kept in the most horrific of conditions. Now we're concentrating on Israel and Iran, we shouldn't for one moment forget their plight. That's been foremost in my mind. The inconvenience that we're facing is minimal compared to the suffering of many other people.' Does he include Palestinians in that – and Iranians currently taking shelter from the missiles raining down on Tehran? Pointing out that Israel's primary targets are 'military or people responsible for their nuclear program', Mirvis says: 'We are saddened by the loss of innocent civilian life in Iran, in the same way as we have been saddened about the loss of innocent civilian life in Gaza, because that has not been Israel's target. 'My heart goes out to the Iranian people, because they've been suffering for decades under the regime that rules them. I really hope that one of the consequences of this will be a decidedly better life for Iranians.' Jews, however, are 'awfully aware' that they are currently 'a target to be wiped out together with this entire state'. 'It's plain, it's straightforward. I'm mystified as to why so many other people out there aren't really getting the reality of what is transpiring and why it is necessary for Israel to do what she's doing. This is not a war of choice that Israel is engaged in. It's a war of necessity.' But is it hard to process the bloodshed, especially as a man of faith who has made it his mission in office to bring religious communities together? 'The reality of innocent human suffering is something which I'm finding very difficult, because any person who has a heart within themselves must reach out with a lot of pain in our hearts to the suffering of innocent people at this time, and that is why we in our Jewish community in the UK have mentioned the plight of innocent Palestinians continuously. We, the Jewish people, place peace at the centre of our lives. The word 'shalom', peace, is the most important word in all of our prayers, in all of our ceremonies is what we pray for, what we yearn for, what we work towards.' Born in Johannesburg, South Africa, in 1956, the son of rabbi Lionel Mirvis, the Chief Rabbi grew up in Benoni, a Hebrew named town on the East Rand in Gauteng. His father preached against the apartheid system, and visited political prisoners held on Robben Island, while his mother Freida was the principal of the Athlone teacher training college, which was then the country's sole college for training black pre-school teachers. I wonder, in light of his liberally-minded upbringing in South Africa, what he makes of accusations by critics such as Amnesty International that Israel is an 'apartheid' state that is now carrying out a 'genocide' in Gaza. 'Well, it is absolutely ridiculous and so wrong,' insists Mirvis. 'If genocide is going to be used within the current context, it's what Iran is planning. It's what Hamas started to do on Oct 7 2023; that is genuine genocide. 'As far as Israel is concerned, it amounts to a blood libel against the Jewish state. Having grown up in South Africa, I know what apartheid was about. I recall how there were ambulances for white people and ambulances for people of colour, and one ambulance wasn't allowed to pick up somebody else of a different colour, just really cruel.' Conversely, he argues, Israelis have always integrated well with Arabs, pointing out that his late daughter, Liora, who died after being diagnosed with colon cancer, was treated at Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem by Professor Ahmed Eid, a Muslim. And what of the criticism that Israel's Right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to act disproportionately? Describing Israel as a 'vibrant democracy', the Chief Rabbi points out that 'even the official opposition led by (Yair) Lapid, who has been so critical of Israel's government, has publicly announced his full support for Israel's government at this time, and that is because every Israeli knows the reality this is a war for survival.' He adds: 'Proportionality is an important consideration. As opposed to the impression that is often given about Israel being in breach of international humanitarian law, God forbid, and going for innocents, I've heard so much from so many people who have been in Gaza, and are active now in Iran, that in fact, the reality of what's happening is that Israel is fighting a war in a most ethical manner.' Mirvis says he has family members serving in the Israeli Defence Force (IDF). 'They are doing what is responsible as a citizen of Israel at a time when the state, its very existence, is being threatened.' Yet while the IDF may have command over the skies of Iran, Israel has been losing the propaganda war, particularly on social media. The problem has been particularly prevalent in the UK, where marches have featured support for Hamas and Hezbollah, protests against airstrikes on the Houthis, and, most recently, flag-waving pledges of solidarity with the Iranian regime. Credit: X/@PSCupdates Agreeing 'Iran is the head of a monstrous being, the tentacles of which are Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis and others', the Chief Rabbi warns that while Israel is the current target, Europe will be next. 'There is so much that Israel is doing which is not being fully appreciated,' he says, citing Israel's 1981 attack on the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq, and its 2007 destruction of a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor located in the Deir ez-Zor region as previous examples of its willingness to take one for the team. 'What Israel is doing is not just for Israel's sake, it's for all of our Western civilisation.' As for social media, he describes as 'masterful' Hamas's weaponisation of the 'genocide' smear. 'Israel has never been good at what Israelis call Hasbara, which is explaining herself. I think that many in Israel acknowledge that this has developed into a weakness, and more should have been invested in this, because it's not only important to do what you believe is right, but perception is also important.' Artificial Intelligence is also fuelling online anti-Semitism, he argues. 'Social media provides a platform for anti-Semites to say what they like and for people to read it. And people are far more ready to express their negativity on social media than they are their positivity, and therefore the most horrific statements are being issued, outlandish and totally false, and nobody is there to check up on it or to correct it.' And what of so-called 'useful idiots' in the public eye like Gary Lineker, who was finally forced to resign from the BBC last month after sharing an anti-Semitic Instagram post, and Dawn French, who apologised after posting a video on X appearing to mock the victims of the October 7 attacks? While reluctant to directly criticise either celebrity, he says: 'In our Jewish tradition, we tell a story of a man who came to a rabbi and he said, 'I feel so bad. I've been guilty of libel. I've been spreading falsehoods about people, please can you advise me, how can I repent?' And the rabbi said, 'OK, there is only one way for you to repent, and that is, go and take a box, put hundreds of feathers in it, stand on the top of a hill on a windy day and allow all the feathers to leave the box. After one hour, go and collect all the feathers, put them back into the box.' And the man said, 'but that's impossible.' And the rabbi said, 'that's my answer to you'. 'That's the impact of social media. Even when there is a correction or an apology, it hardly goes any way towards removing that initial impression from people's minds. Responsibility is called for. People, think before you press the 'click' button, because once out, you can't put it back in.' While characteristically positive about the fate of Israelis, who he says are 'filled with fortitude, exceptionally positive and also united,' the Chief Rabbi remains concerned about British Jews. Last month, a survey found that 81 per cent felt the need to conceal their Judaism in public, following a surge in anti-Semitic incidents since October 2023. Although there has not been a mass exodus to Israel since the October 7 attacks, several surveys have reflected an increase in the number of British Jews considering settling in Israel – known as 'making Aliyah' – despite the ongoing threat from Iran and its proxies. 'British Jews have found life since October 7 exceptionally difficult and sometimes even traumatic. The reality right now, is that if one issues a statement which is anti-Zionist, it's an attack on Jewish people and Judaism. It amounts to anti-Semitism. And when there is an unjustified attack, verbal attack, or whatever it is, on Israel at this time, then it very quickly can become effectively an attack on Jews, and Israel's vulnerability is the vulnerability of Jews globally. 'When governments adopt policies which are unjustifiably anti-Israel, then that contributes to a tone within our societies which strengthens the hands of anti-Semites and does not play out to the benefit of the Jewish communities in those countries.' The Jerusalem Post recently accused Sir Keir Starmer of hypocrisy after imposing sanctions on Israeli ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. But the Chief Rabbi is far too diplomatic to be drawn into a row with the Prime Minister, whose wife Victoria is Jewish. Following the attack on Iran, the Community Security Trust, which provides security to the Jewish community, bolstered measures at UK synagogues. 'We know there are Iranian agents in the UK right now,' says Mirvis. 'We know that an attack on a Jewish community in the North of England was foiled last year. We know that there was a planned attack on the Israeli Embassy in London just a month ago. We are concerned about the future for our children and our grandchildren. But this is a global phenomenon, the intensification of Jew hatred. The threat is real but is not just to Jews, it's to our entire society.' Keen to end on a hopeful note, the Chief Rabbi insists I point out that the altruism currently on display in Israel, as people share their safe rooms with their neighbours, extends to the people of Iran and Gaza too. 'I have spoken to numerous former hostages and the families of current hostages and they all say the same thing, 'we only want the best for our Arab neighbours'. That is what people here hold in their hearts. 'May God bless us all that further to these very significant days of biblical proportions may we achieve and enjoy the peace that we pray for and long for all the time. It's not going to happen today or tomorrow, but I genuinely believe that a consequence of the current conflict will be a better world.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.