An alarming UN report should prompt a rethink about global fertility
A report released on Tuesday by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) warns of 'tectonic population changes [that] will shape the future of humanity for generations to come'. The cause is a decline in global fertility rates 'at a breathtaking scale and pace'.
The UN has, up until now, been loath to give a view on fertility, perhaps because it is such an explosive subject. The issue of whether our species should have fewer children or more is often tangled up in debates about climate change, feminism, resource scarcity and even racism.
In his influential 'Essay on the Principle of Population', published in 1798, the demographer Thomas Malthus argued the human population would eventually outgrow the planet's resources. Although our numbers have increased eight-fold since then, Malthusian fears have proved largely unfounded. As countries became richer, their fertility levels fell. While birth rates remained high in much of the developing world over the past century, it was generally accepted that these, too, would fall as these societies became more prosperous.
The theory behind this is that because wealthier societies enjoy greater life expectancy, lower child mortality, improved female literacy and independence, and more urbanised lifestyles, their adults are less likely to 'need' many children.
Today, birth rates in much of the developing world are indeed falling – but, as the UN report explains, the reasons are complex, and not altogether positive. In many cases, financial difficulty – not prosperity – is the culprit. Moreover, this is the case in some wealthier countries, too.
Across the 14 developed and developing countries the UNFPA surveyed, 39 per cent of people cited 'financial limitations' as a reason for not having a child despite wanting one.
Today, birth rates in much of the developing world are indeed falling – but the reasons are complex, and not altogether positive
Time is another issue. Modern life often demands several hours a day in commute time or employment in a second job. That leaves less time for child-rearing.
The result is a kind of dark mirror of the refutation to Malthus. Development and modernity appear to have overcorrected in freeing us from the burden of unsustainably large families – they are now beginning to box us into unsustainably small ones.
'One in four people currently live in a country where the population size is estimated to have already peaked,' the UNFPA points out. 'The result will be societies as we have never seen them before: communities with larger proportions of elderly, smaller shares of young people, and, possibly, smaller workforces.' By the end of the century, the global population could shrink for the first time since the 1300s, when the Black Death ravaged Europe and Asia.
In some wealthier countries where birth rates have already plummeted, the debate has become polarised. Some pro-natalists – advocates of more births – warn of native populations being 'replaced' by foreign immigrants, while others predict a collapse in pension systems as the workforce diminishes. Some of Malthus's intellectual descendants, meanwhile, point to climate change as a reason to welcome population decline.
According to the UNFPA, however, these concerns are beside the point. The real crisis in this picture, it says, is the growing lack of reproductive agency. Millions of families around the world are unable to have as many children as they'd like, but millions of others are also having more than they intended. The former is fast overtaking the latter as the dominant trend, but in both cases the problem is that a huge number of couples feel they do not have control over the size of their families.
This is a reminder that while it is, of course, important to have policy discussions that promote sustainable population growth, ultimately the guiding principle of fertility ought to be freedom – ensuring that couples are fully empowered to build the kind of family that works best for them.
That is a very different – and much more fruitful – way of framing the matter.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Zawya
3 days ago
- Zawya
Harare goes green: capital city leads Zimbabwe's climate fight with bold urban solutions
As cities are increasingly recognised as both contributors to and potential mitigators of climate change, Harare's efforts reflect a growing awareness that urban areas must act locally to address global environmental issues. The world continues to experience the effects of climate change and weather pattern disruptions that are severely impacting livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable nations. This has led to increased international scrutiny of environmental policies and practices, with emphasis on developing sustainable, inclusive responses that begin at the community level. Despite being a city in a developing country, Harare's actions underscore the importance of involving all sectors of society – from municipal authorities to grassroots organisations – in transforming harmful behaviours and practices into climate-positive solutions. Transforming waste into opportunity One of Harare's most pressing challenges has long been waste management. Piles of uncollected rubbish, illegal dumping, and encroachment on protected wetlands have plagued the city for years. However, in recent times, Zimbabwe's Environmental Management Agency (EMA) has taken major steps to reform this situation through targeted initiatives. Leon Mutungamiri, Harare provincial manager for EMA, explains: 'We're actively promoting integrated resource recovery through the establishment of waste drop-off and transfer centres across the city. Currently, we have transfer centres in Mabvuku-Tafara, Showgrounds, Budiriro, and Highfields. A new centre is also being planned for Epworth.' Beyond these measures, EMA is also tackling ecosystem degradation by restoring wetlands—natural assets that are essential for biodiversity and water management. 'As we speak, Monavale Vlei is now protected,' Mutungamiri adds. 'We're working closely with communities to ensure these areas are preserved for future generations.' Harare has also become the testing ground for one of Zimbabwe's most ambitious waste management projects: Geo Pomona. Situated on the site of the former Pomona dumpsite, the project involves the construction of a recycling facility and a waste-to-energy plant, designed to reduce landfill dependency and generate renewable energy from urban waste. Cliff Chivanga, chief operations officer of the Zimbabwe Sunshine Group – an organisation of environmental activists – describes the group's involvement: 'We provide real, community-based solutions such as the creation of community waste transfer stations. These are designed to serve as first points of contact for waste generated at the household level.' He stresses that the group's initiatives are tailored to empower disadvantaged communities: 'When households separate their waste, recyclable materials are sent to local recyclers, and non-recyclables are directed to national projects like Geo Pomona. This way, every piece of waste is given a purpose.' Greening Harare: buildings, compost, and youth involvement In line with Zimbabwe's national green policy, Harare is also exploring environmentally sustainable architecture. The city's Eastgate Building stands as a pioneering example of climate-responsive design that uses natural ventilation to reduce energy use. Harare city architect, Tobias Chombe, highlights ongoing collaboration with the Green Building Council of Zimbabwe: 'We are working to ensure that all building plans submitted to the city include green considerations from the start – this includes energy efficiency, sustainable materials, and site impact. It's part of a wider effort to green Harare through compliant, environmentally friendly construction.' Meanwhile, grassroots efforts are continuing to flourish. The Sunshine Group, for instance, supports local beneficiation under Zimbabwe's national 'Zero Waste Movement', launched in 2024. This includes turning organic waste into compost for climate-smart agriculture like Pfumvudza – a zero-tillage programme aimed at increasing food security while preserving soil elaborates: 'There was previously little local value addition with plastic waste – it was often exported in raw form. Now, we're working to change that by creating value chains that keep resources and benefits within our communities.' Harare resident Shylen Chikwava, a 59-year-old widow, shares her experience of the new system: 'I used to throw all my waste into the bin and wait for the municipal truck to collect it. Now I sort it, and I've seen how the recyclable materials are put to good use. It feels good to be part of something that helps the environment.' Young people are also getting involved. Melissa Takudzwa Murwira, executive director of Young Volunteers for the Environment, says that empowering youth is a crucial part of the city's environmental mission: 'We're working with young people in various communities to raise awareness and mobilise action. Young people are not just the future – they are key decision-makers of the present.' The largely unsung role of US former president Carter in southern Africa Planning for a resilient urban future Urban planning in Harare is being re-evaluated to include green buffers, open spaces, and the protection of sensitive ecological zones. Town planner Laison Mukarwi believes that safeguarding the city's environmental future requires firm standards: 'When planning any urban settlement, we should ensure that at least 5% of the land is allocated for breathing spaces – areas with vegetation that provide ecological balance.' He also calls for designated green spaces along roads and mandatory buffer zones around rivers: 'These features are not luxuries – they are necessities. Communities also need to play their part in protecting these spaces, and we must educate them on their value.' Focus on Africa: Zimbabwe villagers face China's growing appetite for minerals Harare has seen some areas fall prey to illegal sand mining and land barons, with authorities stepping in to reverse damage in some cases. While these issues reflect the pressures facing the city, they also highlight the urgency and importance of a cohesive, well-enforced urban environmental strategy. As part of its commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement, Zimbabwe – including Harare as its capital – has adopted policies to promote both climate mitigation and adaptation. These include localised action plans that aim to make cities like Harare more liveable, more resilient, and more sustainable. Harare's efforts show that while global climate solutions require international cooperation, it is at the local level – through the combined work of residents, authorities, and activists—that meaningful change often begins. © Copyright The Zimbabwean. All rights reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Zawya
4 days ago
- Zawya
Information recycling and the rise of misinformation
In the early 21st century, terms like 'waste recycling' gained prominence as environmental awareness grew. But in today's digital era, another kind of waste, intangible yet hazardous, demands attention: informational waste. Unlike physical trash, this involves data and ideas endlessly consumed, shared and reshaped without scrutiny. The world now faces an 'information overload' that mirrors material surplus in its capacity to disrupt balance and clarity. 'Information recycling' is a term I propose to describe the repetitive reproduction and sharing of data, until its original meaning erodes. Like recycling physical waste, this process keeps content in circulation, but not always in a healthy or productive way. Often, content is passed along without verification, detached from context or meaning, contributing to semantic chaos. We must ask: are we truly enlightened by this informational abundance, or merely adrift in a sea of trivia and misinformation? In the past, acquiring reliable knowledge required effort. Today, data reaches us before we even seek it. With the rise of the internet and social media, all information, whether valuable or not, can be widely shared and consumed as fact. This unprecedented access has led to cognitive fragmentation. We are not lacking in information, but overwhelmed by it — much of it low-quality, repeated thoughtlessly and rarely examined. This digital saturation fosters a form of cognitive pollution and produces shallow intellects bloated with unchecked snippets rather than deep understanding. More dangerous still is the way repetition lends legitimacy. When content is circulated frequently, it begins to sound credible, even when it's false. Thus, truth becomes a casualty of popularity. Misleading or decontextualised content, recycled for entertainment or bias-confirmation, spreads widely on social media, turning users into unwitting distributors of misinformation. This environment blurs the line between what is accurate and what simply 'feels' true. Another alarming consequence of this phenomenon is the erosion of expertise. In today's influencer-driven culture, the authority of knowledge no longer rests with credentials or research but with likes, views and viral appeal. Experts fade into the background as online personalities dominate discourse, regardless of depth or accuracy. Complex topics are reduced to bite-sized soundbites, stripping issues of nuance. Opinion is mistaken for analysis, memes for facts and the public becomes increasingly suspicious of scholars and professionals, viewing them as elitist rather than informed. This epistemic shift has profound social consequences. Algorithms offer users content that aligns with their preferences, creating 'knowledge bubbles' that reinforce pre-existing beliefs. Shared truths disintegrate and societies fracture epistemically even while living side by side. In politics, recycled misinformation becomes a tool for manipulation, shaping public opinion and deepening division. Rumors are weaponised and individual biases are amplified rather than questioned. To combat this, we need a healthier knowledge ecosystem built on critical filtering and intellectual discipline. Just as cities combat pollution through waste sorting, our minds require careful curation of information. Schools must teach how to differentiate facts from opinions and foster critical thinking and slow, reflective reading. We need an epistemic pedagogy that instils not just knowledge but discernment. Reclaiming a culture of inquiry starts with individuals. Each person must become an active filter questioning sources, seeking context and resisting the temptation of superficial consumption. Academic and media institutions must also redraw boundaries, clarifying that not all content is knowledge and not all voices carry equal weight. Without such measures, we risk becoming echo chambers for misinformation, reinforcing rather than challenging our cognitive habits. 'Information recycling' is not a passing trend but a mirror reflecting our fraught relationship with knowledge in the digital age. We've moved from scarcity to saturation but lost depth and clarity. To restore intellectual balance, we must treat knowledge not as a commodity but as a responsibility. Only through awareness, reflection and rigorous engagement can we hope to distinguish truth from illusion and recover the integrity of our shared understanding.
The National
11-06-2025
- The National
An alarming UN report should prompt a rethink about global fertility
A report released on Tuesday by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) warns of 'tectonic population changes [that] will shape the future of humanity for generations to come'. The cause is a decline in global fertility rates 'at a breathtaking scale and pace'. The UN has, up until now, been loath to give a view on fertility, perhaps because it is such an explosive subject. The issue of whether our species should have fewer children or more is often tangled up in debates about climate change, feminism, resource scarcity and even racism. In his influential 'Essay on the Principle of Population', published in 1798, the demographer Thomas Malthus argued the human population would eventually outgrow the planet's resources. Although our numbers have increased eight-fold since then, Malthusian fears have proved largely unfounded. As countries became richer, their fertility levels fell. While birth rates remained high in much of the developing world over the past century, it was generally accepted that these, too, would fall as these societies became more prosperous. The theory behind this is that because wealthier societies enjoy greater life expectancy, lower child mortality, improved female literacy and independence, and more urbanised lifestyles, their adults are less likely to 'need' many children. Today, birth rates in much of the developing world are indeed falling – but, as the UN report explains, the reasons are complex, and not altogether positive. In many cases, financial difficulty – not prosperity – is the culprit. Moreover, this is the case in some wealthier countries, too. Across the 14 developed and developing countries the UNFPA surveyed, 39 per cent of people cited 'financial limitations' as a reason for not having a child despite wanting one. Today, birth rates in much of the developing world are indeed falling – but the reasons are complex, and not altogether positive Time is another issue. Modern life often demands several hours a day in commute time or employment in a second job. That leaves less time for child-rearing. The result is a kind of dark mirror of the refutation to Malthus. Development and modernity appear to have overcorrected in freeing us from the burden of unsustainably large families – they are now beginning to box us into unsustainably small ones. 'One in four people currently live in a country where the population size is estimated to have already peaked,' the UNFPA points out. 'The result will be societies as we have never seen them before: communities with larger proportions of elderly, smaller shares of young people, and, possibly, smaller workforces.' By the end of the century, the global population could shrink for the first time since the 1300s, when the Black Death ravaged Europe and Asia. In some wealthier countries where birth rates have already plummeted, the debate has become polarised. Some pro-natalists – advocates of more births – warn of native populations being 'replaced' by foreign immigrants, while others predict a collapse in pension systems as the workforce diminishes. Some of Malthus's intellectual descendants, meanwhile, point to climate change as a reason to welcome population decline. According to the UNFPA, however, these concerns are beside the point. The real crisis in this picture, it says, is the growing lack of reproductive agency. Millions of families around the world are unable to have as many children as they'd like, but millions of others are also having more than they intended. The former is fast overtaking the latter as the dominant trend, but in both cases the problem is that a huge number of couples feel they do not have control over the size of their families. This is a reminder that while it is, of course, important to have policy discussions that promote sustainable population growth, ultimately the guiding principle of fertility ought to be freedom – ensuring that couples are fully empowered to build the kind of family that works best for them. That is a very different – and much more fruitful – way of framing the matter.
