Turkish Public Increasingly Worried About Direct Conflict With Israel

A day before Israel attacked Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was at the Knesset, welcoming Argentinian President Javier Milei with open arms. 'Argentina became a safe haven for thousands of Jews,' Milei told Israeli politicians. 'They sought refuge from economic hardship and antisemitic persecution. Not only in Eastern Europe, but also in the Ottoman Empire,' he said. 'An empire that I don't think will be renewed anytime soon, even though there are those who disagree with me.'
The remarks, which were clearly directed at Turkey and its long-serving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, were not lost on officials in Ankara. A burgeoning regional power, Turkey has played an outsized role in the Middle East since the so-called Arab Spring uprisings of the 2010s.
Amid the new power dynamic that has taken shape in the region, Ankara has seen its stock increase in major western capitals. Such has been its rise that on Thursday, Turkey was among a small group of US allies notified in advance that Israel would be launching its attack on Iran.
Hours later, early on Friday, Israel began its assault on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, and started assassinating high-profile security, intelligence and military commanders, along with nuclear scientists. The attacks, which also targeted residential areas and civilian infrastructure, have so far killed more than 500 people and wounded at least 1,300, many of them civilians.
In response, Iran has fired barrages of missiles towards Haifa, Tel Aviv and other major Israeli cities.
Turkey has lamented the escalation, describing Israel's assault as unprovoked, especially at a time when US intelligence suggested Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. While the escalation has been characterized as sudden, and one that has caught many regional states by surprise, Ankara was long bracing for an Israeli attack on Iran.
In September, when Israel killed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Turkish officials studied possible scenarios in the event of a severe Israeli attack and a potential wider regional conflict. They prepared contingency plans, including measures against possible waves of refugees.
In October, Ankara also initiated negotiations with the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, to prevent the group from being used as a proxy by either Iran or Israel.
Israel-Turkey relations
Turkey has historically maintained good ties with Israel, despite ups and downs due to Israel's wars with the region's countries. Turkey was the first Muslim country to recognize Israel, in 1949, and gradually became an ally of Tel Aviv in the 1990s, when the Turkish security apparatus needed its help to counter the PKK during a period of domestic instability.
Since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took power in 2003, the relationship has gradually deteriorated from a strategic partnership to that of neighbours who frequently confront each other over the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and elsewhere.
Relations soured after Israel raided the Mavi Marmara ferry in 2010, killing 10 Turkish activists in international waters, but they later improved. But tensions heightened again in late 2023 when Ankara decided to walk back from the rapprochement due to the war on Gaza, which Turkish officials believe constitutes a genocide.
Since Israel's campaigns to degrade Hezbollah last year and the fall of the Assad dynasty in Syria, the region has been transformed by Netanyahu's actions. Where Iran once dominated, Israel is now increasingly the key regional power.
Israeli officials have publicly begun to state that the only other player with significant resources they face is Turkey.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has reiterated several times since December that the region should not be dominated by any single power, including Turkey itself. The first significant challenge between Turkey and Israel was Syria, as Netanyahu's government made sure to oppose any Turkish bases with radar and air defence installations in southern Syria.
American officials, worried about possible incidents, encouraged both countries to hold talks, resulting in the establishment of a hotline between Turkey and Israel in April.
Talks progressed to the point where Turkish officials included Syrian representatives in discussions with the Israelis, in the hope of finding a middle ground to stop Israeli attacks on Syrian territory. The main issue was control of Syrian airspace. Ankara delayed its plans to quickly take control of the bases until the deconfliction talks with Israel were completed, effectively later giving Israel a window of opportunity to attack Iran.
For the Turks, this did not involve Turkish airspace. Turkish officials advised Israel to address its concerns over the airspace issues directly with Syria rather than Ankara.
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