Junk Science Week — Terence Corcoran: When science turns political, trust declines
For many years now, popular trust in science has been in decline. That conclusion may not pass a rigid science review since most of the evidence comes from polling, which — according to Google's AI review — lacks scientific rigidity. When asked whether polling is a science, Google AI responded with what looks like a consensus view: 'It is both a science and an art.' The science involves using 'statistical methods, sampling techniques and social science principles to design and conduct polls that accurately reflect public opinion.' Then comes a big cloud of doubt: 'However, the interpretation and application of polling data, as well as the specific strategies used by pollsters, can involve a degree of artistry and political judgment.' Some say polling is 'more an art than a science.'
The following is not intended as a put-down of polling, which has its valid processes and uses. The summary definition of polling, however, does somewhat correspond to FP Comment's standard definition of junk science. Junk science occurs when scientific facts are distorted, risk is exaggerated (or underplayed) and 'the science' adapted and warped by politics and ideology to serve another agenda. That definition encompasses a wide range of activities among scientists, NGOs, politicians, journalists, media outlets, cranks and quacks who manipulate science for political, environmental, economic and social purposes. We can now add Artificial Intelligence to the list.
The large proportion of science that flows through to the populations of Canada and all countries can, unfortunately, fall into our definition. The array of ideological forces using science to generate public support for social and political causes — or to defeat the same causes — is sowing increasing confusion and distrust.
In recent years, poll after poll after poll has produced evidence that public confidence in science has been declining. Back in 2020, University of Alberta professor Tim Caulfield noted that fomenting distrust 'has become the go-to strategy for selling health products, generating clicks and getting elected.' The doubts grew as the COVID-19 pandemic raged and as Donald Trump and others on both sides of the political fence engaged in pitched battles over vaccines.
The pandemic is said to be a major factor behind the decline of trust in science, especially in the United States where vaccine polarization accelerated with Trump's appointment of Robert Kennedy Jr. as America's Secretary of Health, which fuelled more doubt (or so the polls showed), especially on the religious right.
Opinions may be shifting, however. Kennedy's 'Make America Healthy Again' report released last month has been roundly trashed across the political spectrum for its lack of science and false scientific statements. The Genetic Literacy Project called the report a 'full-scale assault on science.'
In a new paper — The Strange New Politics of Science — two researchers at the American Enterprise Institute argue that while 76 per cent of Americans still trust science, the number is 11 points below pre-pandemic levels. The authors rightly argue that 'the stark polarization of American politics around trust in science not only threatens the legitimacy of particular expert institutions, but also has potentially destabilizing consequences for society as a whole.'
A 2024 University of Waterloo survey report, Trust in Canada, suggested Canadians still hold science in high regard. Despite the pandemic episodes, 'scientists (along with doctors and researchers) remain one of the most trusted groups in Canada.' In one pre-pandemic poll, 90 per cent of respondents said they 'trusted' and 'trusted very much' science-related sources. They were followed by science-based personalities (76 per cent), journalists (56 per cent), government (46 per cent), comedians (31 per cent), religious leaders (25 per cent), bloggers and influencers (19 per cent), and celebrities (10 per cent). At least journalists ranked higher than comedians.
A 2023 Confidence in Leaders survey from Environics found that even during the pandemic, 75 per cent of surveyed citizens still had 'a lot or some confidence' in science, far behind NGOs (52), journalists (50), business leaders (42) and politicians (33). Such polling results highlight the indisputable fact that trust in science may have weakened to some degree in recent years, but the cause may be more a function of other messengers and institutions rather than scientists.
Which takes us to the heart of junk science. The junk is not necessarily in the science, but in the various ideological streams through which the science flows. Make no mistake, scientists can have political and ideological agendas, but in open debate the junk can be filtered out.
Through this week's 27th annual Junk Science Week, various science issues are explored, beginning with Peter Shawn Taylor's exploration of the questionable science behind the annual bee apocalypse. While a Google AI search question (Are bee populations declining?) will produce various versions of yes, the actual answer is no.
Which is not surprising. A recent headline on a science blog said: 'Flood of 'junk': How AI is changing scientific publishing.' Another claimed that 'AI-fabricated 'junk science' floods Google scholar.'
And then there is this story from Nature magazine that merged AI with the artful science of polling: 'Is it OK for AI to write science papers? Nature survey shows researchers are split. The poll of 5,000 researchers finds contrasting views on when it's acceptable to involve AI and what needs to be disclosed.'
Terence Corcoran: A 'guide' to the Trump-Canada steel tariff war
Terence Corcoran: Trump bites U.S. economy to get at Apple
Contrasting views in science! Situation normal.
• Email: tcorcoran@postmedia.com
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Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Protesters gather after immigration raid targets car wash in L.A. County
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The man in the white-long sleeved shirt is a car wash worker who is a U.S. citizen, according to the employee's brother, Jesús Rafael Cervantes. He said his brother, who lives in Bell Gardens, wanted to defend a coworker— an action that, Cervantes said, prompted agents to detain his brother. "Just for defending someone, they came and knocked him down. As you can see in the videos, they came and knocked him down like that, just like that. And that's unfair, that they come and grab a person like that as if he were an animal or something," Cervantes told The Times. Protesters gathered to confront the agents in the area, which is about 6 miles southeast of downtown Los Angeles. In one video shared with The Times, a protester sprays white paint on a silver SUV and a voice can be heard saying, "Get the ... out of here!" while others jeer. People can be seen hitting the vehicle. Read more: 'They are grabbing people.' L.A. and Orange County car wash workers targeted by federal immigration raids Officials with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security did not immediately return a request for comment. In a statement posted on social media, the agency said Border Patrol vehicles "were violently targeted during lawful operations" in Bell and neighboring Maywood. The Department of Homeland Security said one vehicle was rammed and had its tires slashed on Atlantic Boulevard. On Slauson Avenue, a civilian struck a federal vehicle, totaling it, according to the department. "The driver was arrested for suspicion of vehicular assault as a mob formed and slashed additional tires," the department said. The statement included photos showing silver vehicles with cracked or shattered windows. One silver SUV was shown with dented doors and scratched paint. "Federal law enforcement is facing an ever-escalating increase in assaults—but we will not be deterred," the department said. "If you assault a federal officer, you will be prosecuted." The statement did not indicate how many were detained on immigration-related matters. The protest in Bell, a city with a large Latino and Lebanese community, comes as the federal government continues its campaign in Los Angeles to find and capture undocumented immigrants. The actions have spurred backlash from local and state officials and have forced some residents into hiding. "We're not sure who these armed men are. They show up without uniforms. They show up completely masked. They refuse to give ID. They're driving regular cars with tinted windows and in some cases, out of state license plates. Who are these people?" Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said at a briefing Friday night. "If they're federal officials, why is it that they do not identify themselves?" Bass asked. Around Atlantic and Brompton avenues, crowds of people gathered, taking videos and looking at the agents — armed individuals wearing balaclavas, some carrying long weapons, wearing vests and camoflauge pants. They stood in the street near a Baskin-Robbins ice cream shop. The crowd and agents were separated by yellow tape. One woman with a bullhorn hurled obscenities at the agents and President Trump; others waved a Mexican flag and an upside-down U.S. flag, traditionally a symbol of protest or distress. "Losers!" another woman called out. "Go fight a real war!" Another shouted, "Shame on you!" Read more: More L.A. car washes targeted in immigration raids, some closed amid fears of further sweeps Elsewhere, one of the armed people wore a U.S. flag on his vest, and some onlookers called out to them. "Are you a bounty hunter? How much is the bounty for an illegal right now?" someone on the street yelled. 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Just after 8 p.m., peaceful protesters waving Mexican and American flags gathered around Jack's Car Wash in Bell, as motorists honked their horns in support. "ICE out of everywhere!!!" one sign said. "Immigrants built this country," said another. There was another immigration action that appeared to focus on a car wash in Maywood on Friday, according to Maywood Councilman Eddie De La Riva. Ultimately no one was taken from that business, he said. At one point, there was considerable commotion near the car wash. Video shared with The Times shows a minor collision between a blue BMW and a blue SUV with at least three agents inside, all wearing green vests. One of the passengers in the SUV opens his door in front of the slowly moving BMW, causing the BMW to hit the SUV's door. Agents detained the BMW's driver, who was later released, the councilman said, after onlookers shouted at the agents to let the driver go. By then, a crowd of protesters had formed. 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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
Washington Post
an hour ago
- Washington Post
Doonesbury Comic Strips by Garry Trudeau - June 20, 2025
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CNN
an hour ago
- CNN
Republicans might redraw House maps in Ohio and Texas to try to protect narrow majority
CNN — Facing the possibility of losing control of the U.S. House next year, Republicans are weighing aggressively redrawing congressional districts in two states in hopes of ousting several longtime Democratic lawmakers. In Ohio, a quirk in state law is giving Republican state legislators another run at drawing new lines for the state's 15 congressional districts. The goal would be to knock off two Democratic members of the House, giving the GOP a 12-3 advantage in the state's congressional delegation. State lawmakers could go even further and target a third Democratic seat. In Texas, meanwhile, Republicans are considering whether to hold a special legislative session to undertake a rare mid-decade map-drawing that supporters hope could result in the GOP picking up as many as five additional seats. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to win the House, raising the stakes for Republicans and President Donald Trump, who could see a Democrat-led House block his legislative agenda and open new investigations of him in the second half of his final term. But redistricting is a double-edged sword: In drawing new lines, both states could also endanger GOP lawmakers by moving safe Republican territory into districts currently represented by Democrats. Adam Kincaid, president and executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, favors an aggressive redistricting approach. 'It's a priority to keep the House, and Republicans should be looking for as many seats as we can get,' he said. The GOP's redistricting gains in 2022 were key to the party flipping the chamber in that election and retaining their majority in 2024, he added. 'There were a handful of seats that weren't politically possible to get before that may be possible now,' he added. 'It makes sense for Republicans to try ahead of 2026.' Redrawing maps is potentially risky for GOP incumbents if 2026 proves to be a favorable year for Democrats. Republicans will have to run in a year when Trump himself is not the ballot, helping to boost conservative turnout. 'It's both a gamble and an opportunity,' said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, a newsletter published by University of Virginia's Center for Politics. 'From the White House's perspective, would an aggressive Texas redraw increase their chances of holding the House next year? Yeah, probably. But it wouldn't guarantee anything.' Redistricting generally happens at the start of each decade to account for population shifts and ensure that each congressional and state legislative district holds roughly the same number of people. Some Democrats have denounced the potential rounds of mid-decade map-drawing, arguing that Republicans are trying to rig the process. 'Republicans are exploring further manipulation of egregious gerrymanders in red states like Texas and Ohio for one reason: they are terrified of the voters,' said Marina Jenkins, executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, in a statement. 'It's a brazenly corrupt attempt to shield themselves from accountability at the ballot box and it must be stopped.' A third redistricting battle, meanwhile, is playing out in Wisconsin where two legal actions filed last month are challenging a congressional map that favors Republicans in a battleground state that's narrowly divided along partisan lines. Both cases are before the state Supreme Court, which has a liberal majority. Texas could go after border Democrats All but one Republican member of the Texas congressional delegation won their seats with more than 60% of the vote last November. All 25 GOP-held districts voted for Trump by at least 15 points in 2024, Kondik noted. A new GOP map in Texas is likely to shift voters from safely red districts into ones held by Democrats to help boost the number of Republicans that Texas sends to Congress. Currently, under a 2021 map, Republicans control 25 of the state's 38 House seats. (One safely Democratic seat in the Houston area is vacant following the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner. The current Texas congressional maps are the subject of litigation brought by groups representing Black and Latino voters who contend the lines drawn in 2021 discriminate against voters of color.) Clear targets include Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, who represent border communities that have shifted to the right in recent years. Trump won both districts in 2024, part of a broader realignment among Latino voters. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat, argued recently that an aggressive redraw could backfire on Republicans. 'If you make any changes to that map … they are going to endanger four to six Republican incumbents who are serving in the Congress right now,' he said to reporters. 'Be careful what you wish for.' Other Democrats have condemned any effort to change the district lines to further benefit the GOP. 'Texas Republicans should stand by the rule of law and the maps they drew four years ago, or they should finally work with Democrats to draw fair, independent congressional maps,' state Rep. Gene Wu, who chairs the Democratic caucus in the Texas House, said in a statement. 'Anything less is a desperate power grab from a party that knows Texas voters are ready to show them the door.' The White House did not respond to a CNN inquiry about the effort, which has been the subject of recent closed-door meetings in Washington among members of the state's congressional delegation. The state legislature, which finished its regular session earlier this month, is not scheduled to meet again until 2027. But Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has the authority to call special sessions and determine the issues lawmakers will address. Aides to the Texas governor did not respond to CNN inquiries. Last week, Abbott told reporters that he had not 'identified a need for a special session,' according to the Dallas Morning News. The governor, however, did not close the door on the possibility, saying he was reviewing bills from the regular legislative session that could result in vetoes that would require him to summon lawmakers back to Austin to address outstanding matters. Abbott also declined to tell journalists whether Trump had asked him to order a redraw. Ohio GOP looks for as many as three seats In Ohio, the mid-decade redrawing of its congressional districts is an outgrowth of a state law that requires maps approved without bipartisan support to be redrawn after four years. Crafting new maps for next year's midterms will ultimately fall to the Republican-controlled General Assembly. The current map, crafted by a GOP-led legislature in 2022, has 10 Republicans and five Democrats. Two Democratic incumbents are viewed as likely targets of the GOP: Reps. Marcy Kaptur, a veteran lawmaker who represents northwestern Ohio, and Emilia Skyes, whose district includes Akron. Last year, Kaptur eked out a win even as her district went for Trump. Skyes, meanwhile, represents a highly competitive district that former Vice President Kamala Harris barely won. If Republicans choose an even more aggressive approach, a third Democrat, Rep. Greg Landsman, who represents Cincinnati, could be endangered.
