Britain's risk of power outages this winter lowest since pre-Covid, Neso says
The National Electricity System Operator (Neso) said there is set to be enough electricity to meet demand over the colder winter months.
In its early winter outlook, Neso anticipates an average operational margin – the difference between supply of electricity and demand for it – of 6.6 gigawatts (GW) from the end of October to the end of March.
This is the highest expected margin since the 2019-2020 winter and is greater than the 5.2 GW forecast last year.
The publicly-owned operator is tasked with ensuring that the supply of and demand for electricity always remains balanced.
If supply cannot meet demand then the country risks blackouts.
An increase in the margin has been driven by several factors, Neso said, including growth in electricity supply from battery storage at both a national and regional level – which enables power from renewables to be stored and then released when it is needed.
It also pointed to an increase in the availability of electricity generation from gas, and from a new power cable, known as the Greenlink interconnector, connecting electricity grids between Wales and Ireland.
This increased supply is expected to more than offset an expected rise in demand during peak periods.
The slight uptick marks a divergence from previous years, when demand has either stayed the same or fallen, but Neso said it is too early to say what might drive that increase.
Neso said it expects there to be around six minutes over the winter period where it might have to resort to special measures to keep the grid running smoothly.
In most cases where demand exceeds supply for a period of time, it is managed by the grid operator without any impact on consumers.
Neso stressed it was remaining 'vigilant' in its preparation for the winter amid changes in global energy markets.
'Our early view of the winter ahead shows a positive outlook with sufficient margins throughout the colder winter months,' Deborah Petterson, Neso's director of resilience and emergency management said.
'We will continue to monitor developments in global energy markets, remaining vigilant in our preparations to ensure that the resilience and reliability of the electricity network is maintained.'
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The Herald Scotland
13 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Does Scotland really need more offshore wind farms?
Often critics will say there are already enough onshore wind, but what does that mean? And is that really seen in the figures? The claims are examined here, as well as key issues like constraint payments and why so many of the UK's onshore wind farms are in Scotland. Claim: Scotland is already producing more electricity than it needs Yes. Electricity transfers data show that Scotland exported 21.0 TWh of electricity and imported 1.3 TWh of electricity in 2024. This means that Scotland's net exports of electricity (exports minus imports) in 2024 was 19.7 TWh. In 2024, Scotland generated a record 38.4 terawatt hours (TWh) of renewable electricity, suggesting that it exported around half. Claim: Scotland already has enough onshore wind capacity to meet its total electricity 2050 demand. Currently, according to DESNZ, Scotland has an onshore wind capacity of 10GW, and a gross peak demand of 4GW. However, NESO, in its Ten Year Statement estimates gross peak demand for Scotland in 2050 at between 8.5GW and 11GW depending on what degree of electrification takes place. 'Over the next 10 years,' it says, 'rapid growth in renewable -generated electricity in Scotland will mainly be attributed to offshore wind. This will cause far greater power transfer requirements across the Scottish boundaries, increasing the network reinforcement needs in some areas. Generation capacity in Scotland heavily exceeds demand, thus Scotland will be expected to export power into the rest of Great Britain most of the time except during periods of prolonged low wind, where the reverse may occur.' Graph of Scotland's gross electricity demand from NESO's Ten Year Statement (Image: NESO) However, in a renewable system, where generation is intermittent, capacity needs to be significantly higher than peak demand. Since there are, as yet, no target figures for Scotland's wind generation for 2050 – though overall, according to the Climate Change Committee's Seventh Carbon Budget, UK is aiming for 125GW offshore wind, 27GW onshore wind and 106GW solar- it's hard to know by how much Scotland is likely to exceed its own demand. Claim: Scotland already has enough wind consented and in planning for 2030 or 2035 One Caithness-bsed campaigner who has looked at the figures, is Kathrin Haltiner, who says, 'For the whole of Scotland for 2030 and even to 2035, what is already in the planning system, without any scoping applications, is more than enough to reach these caps and these caps are important because anything that goes over these caps is not going to help with net zero.' In a recent analysis she writes about the North of Scotland, noting that the Clean Power Action Plan 'caps onshore wind farm development for North Scotland at 9GW for 2030 and only adds a very small capacity increase for the whole of Scotland until 2035. Clearly SSEN's ambitions are oversized.' 'North Scotland already has 6.3GW of additional onshore wind farm capacity in the pipeline: 0.2GW under construction, 3.2GW consented and awaiting construction, and 2.9GW in planning (excluding projects only at scoping stage). "Together with the already built 3.8GW the potential capacity in North Scotland is 10.1GW, that is 1.1GW over the capacity advised in the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan. This means consents can be given more selectively from now on. The urgency used as an argument from developers to get a consent does not hold up anymore.' Do these figures stack up? What is current onshore wind capacity According to DESNZ, at the end of last year Scotland had an installed onshore wind capacity of 10.3GW of onshore wind. Haltiner came up with a slightly different figure when she added up all the operational capacity in the Renewable Energy Projects Database, making 9.4GW. This is also the figure I got when I did the same calculation. How much more is already in the process of being built? While recent official totals haven't been published, it is possible to total up the projects categorised as under construction on the Renewable Energy Planning Database, giving a figure for onshore wind under construction in Scotland of 1.7GW. A further list of projects consented to, but awaiting construction, totals 5.4GW. All together that's 7.1GW already underway. What about projects that are already in the planning process? Again, data in the REPD gives us an idea of what is a live planning application, as well as those projects that have been abandoned, refused or withdrawn. Kathrin Haltiner has totalled these up to 8.1GW. How does this compare with the cap for Scotland for electricity generation for 2030? The Clean Energy Action Plan, in its update on its annex, states that Scotland, as whole, has a cap for electricity generation for 2030 of 20.5GW. This is a massive leap from the current estimate of 10.3GW, and even more from the 9.4GW in the REPD. But are we nevertheless, as Kathrin Haltiner, suggests already in danger of exceeding it? According to Haltiner's calculations, if we add already operational wind to all the wind farms already under construction and consented to is, for the North of Scotland, 1.1GW greater than the sum of all onshore wind projects that are operational, in construction, consented to and in the planning system. For South of Scotland, the equivalent total is 2.5GW more than the 11.5GW cap. But the question remains, how many of those projects will make it through planning and become final operational projects? Another way of looking at it is that if, across Scotland, we already have 16.5GW already in operation, in construction or consented to, leaving only 4GW still to take up. But there are actually twice as many (8.1GW) of projects sitting in the planning system and not all of those can happen. Of course, some of those may, in any case, be withdrawn, some projects will be abandoned, others reduced, and some, even from the list of projects awaiting construction may not even happen. Others may not happen within the timeframe. Does that mean we are set to have much onshore wind for current caps? No, but in the unlikely event that every project that is sitting in planning were to be built Scotland would significantly exceed its cap. These figures suggest that only half of these projects can happen. Is it a reason to slow down? Not according to Scottish Renewables. Their director of onshore, Morag Watson put it this way, with different but similar figures - actually suggesting that even less of the projects currently in planning will be needed by 2030, but noting the need for continued urgency. 'Scotland has to increase its onshore wind capacity from 10GW to 20GW in about five years. In Scotland at the moment in the pipeline of projects that are consented but not yet built, we have 7.5 GW. So we need everything in the pipeline and just over 2 GW more. So this idea we have too much wind already is just not borne out by the strategic plans.' She also points out that the process of going through scoping, planning and constructing a wind farm can be long. 'Viking windfarm on Shetland, that was a 15 year process to make the needs case for that. Renewable projects can wait up to ten years for a grid connection and you only get a connection to the grid when it's needed.' 'A project can go through the planning system, but just because they have planning permission doesn't mean they are about to get built and connected to the grid. Post planning they'll get a grid connection date and they will work to that grid connection date as to when they start building.' Mostly Watson notes, the strategy up till 2030 is about reducing our dependency on gas, which is not only responsible for significant carbon emissions, but also, through its high price, drives up electricity bills. By 2030, the goal is to reduce the amount of gas used to generate electricity down to about 5% on the system. She says: 'At the moment it's about taking the gas and other fossil fuel generation off the system – replacing it with renewables because they are cheaper and more reliable in terms of pricings that you pay. ' Is there also enough in the pipeline for 2035? 'Post 2030,' Morag Watson explains, 'what we start to see is the electrification of transport and heat really accelerating. That's when you see electricity demand really grow." The next milestone and cap along the way is 2035, and what's striking is how little more capacity – just 700MW – is being allocated to Scotland over that period. This is a tiny fraction of what Scotland has already built and is set to achieve in the next five years. Scotland's offshore wind industry has already flagged that up as a problem. A group of 13 developers signed an open letter to UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband amid concerns of a 'de-facto ban' on Scottish onshore wind post-2030. Earlier this year a group of In the letter, they stated: 'Currently, the cap in the Plan will allow only 700MW of additional Scottish onshore wind capacity to connect between 2031 and 2035. 'This would result in a decrease in the rate of installations allowed after 2030 of over 90%, and amounts to a de-facto ban on Scottish onshore wind post-2030. What anti-wind farm campaigners see as ammunition for the argument that less windfarms should be consented, the industry itself is seeing as a threat, and reason to push for more capacity – but that capacity is determined by the grid, and therefore. Claim: Scotland is already doing more than its fair share of onshore wind Last year, Scotland, according to RenewablesUK, was operating 63% of the UK's onshore wind capacity. By 2030 Scotland will be producing 20.5GW of power, well over two thirds of the onshore wind generation in the UK, which is set at 27-29GW. As this map shows, Scotland is doing a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to onshore wind. Partly this is because previously England had a de facto ban on onshore wind developments. But there are, as Morag Watson told me, other factors that feed in to why Scotland, in any case, is getting most of the wind. 'The reason for this is you can only put onshore wind where the wind consistently blows at 7ms or faster and there are chunks of England where that doesn't happen. You cannot build a wind turbine within 800m of someone's home, or with the bigger turbines, within 1km of someone's home. "So if you take a map of the UK and take out everywhere where the wind is less than 7 m/s and then take out everywhere where you're within 800 m of someone's home, and then remove National Parks and national scenic areas, where you also cannot build wind, and again is why you don't see onshore wind predominantly down the west coast an central of Scotland, the only places you can build onshore wind are these parts of Scotland and mid Wales. This is why Scotland does do the heavy lifting on onshore wind.' But, she notes, England is doing most of the heavy lifting on solar. Unsurprisingly, the south of England, where the sun is stronger, is also where there are more solar developments. Why are wind farms so concentrated in the North East and Lanarkshire? Wind farms tend to be where the grid is, so they can connect to them – and hence pattern of distribution across Scotland follows those powerlines. There is very little transmission infrastructure down the west coast of Scotland, which means relatively few turbines there. It's often said that onshore wind developments in rural areas of Scotland are producing electricity for the cities to the south and England. But Morag Watson says, 'What is being built onshore in Scotland, is mostly what Scotland needs.' The overhead powerline system, she points out, is not just about delivering energy to the south, but also about sending off connections along the way to power homes and transport in the areas the lines pass through. Claim: Constraint payments are already costing millions and only going to rise – suggesting there is already too much onshore wind A report published earlier this year by the Renewable Energy Foundation found that wind farm constraints continue to rise, both in total volume and in cost. In 2024 the consumer paid more than £393 million in direct costs to discard 8.3 TWh of wind energy. This was a rise from the previous year's cost of £310 million. "Planning application data," the report said, 'shows that the, in our view, indefensibly high rewards for constraints continue to incentivise wind farm development in areas of the UK that have low demand and weak grid connection, resulting in high constraints. More than 98% of the total constrained volume, it noted, arises from Scottish wind farms. However, by far the biggest constraints wereapplied not to onshore wind, but offshore wind, including Seagreen. 'In particular, the offshore wind farm, Seagreen, whose majority owner is SSE, was alone responsible for 40% of the total volume of constraints. Seagreen is currently unsubsidised but 25% of its capacity has been awarded an as yet unimplemented Contract for Difference (CfD).' The most constrained onshore windfarms were Viking (Shetland), Dorenell (Moray), which is currently proposing an extension which would make the area home to the largest onshore array of turbines, Stronelairg (Fort Augustus), which claims to be on of Scotland's windiest windfarms, Bhlaraidh (Glenmoriston). Of these four, all but Dorenell are owned by SSE Renewables. However, Morag Watson points out that, relative to other impacts on electricity bills, like the fact gas prices set electricity prices 98% of the time in the UK (which has the highest electricity prices in Europe), the cost of curtailment is not that big. 'If you look," she saas, "at the cost of balancing the grid in the average electricity bill, which according to Ofgem is £929, £32 of that is the balancing, just under 3.5% and of that only part of that would be the cost of constraint payments. That's a vanishingly small part of your electricity bill. About £352 of your bill is driven by the wholesale cost of electricity – and that is driven by the gas price. So getting rid of the constraints and getting that gas down would be a really great thing for all of us.' Part of what is driving constraints is the pinch point around what's called the B6 boundary in the grid between Scotland and England, which has a theoretic transfer capability currently of around 6.7 GW. But it isn't the only problem. Arguably the B4 boundary, between the North of Scotland and South of Scotland transmission areas, which has a capacity of only 3.4GW is still more important. A recent blog published by UK Energy Research Centre, written by Professor Keith Bell and Callum MacIver of the University of Strathclyde looked at the 'impact of the role of transmission system availability (or rather unavailability) on rising curtailment costs in Britain'. They noted the importance of the B4 boundary. 'Lots of the wind in Scotland is located in the far North, including all of that new capacity from Seagreen, Viking and Moray East, totalling around 2.5 GW. The B4 boundary is therefore often the primary pinch point on the system.' The blog examines the impact of the failure to as yet build planned grid enhancement, especially the Peterhead to Drax undersea cable, which the system operator originally gave a delivery date of 2023, but is now not due till 2029. 'It seems clear we haven't built out enough North to South transmission capacity quickly enough, and that lies at the root of our current issues… but is there more to the story?' It goes on to point that an additional issue is that 'often, the real-time capacity on the B4 and B6 boundaries is well below the maximum level, often even below 50%.' The authors note also note that even these boundaries are not working to capacity. 'Not only have we, up to now, failed to add a 2 GW link across the congested Scottish boundaries, but B4 spent more than half of 2024 with an additional equivalent scale 2 GW reduction in operating capacity.' The reason for this? 'Ironically,' they write, 'it is due to the implementation of network upgrades'. This illustrates that in a grid undergoing significant works over the coming years, transmission is likely to vary. MacIver also looked at what the effect of additional network capacity across the B4 and B6 boundaries would have been and found that 'even a modest increase' across these boundaries of 500MW could have resulted in 'reduced curtailment costs by as much as 25% from the £1.65bn total in the 15 month period from the start of 2024 to the end of April 2025' and 'a 2000 MW uplift, in line with delivering the Peterhead Eastern Link project to its original schedule of 2023, then a full 73% of the thermal constraint costs could potentially have been avoided'. Overall, therefore, the constraint problem is an argument for more grid enhancement, particularly the development of undersea links, rather than less windfarms.
Telegraph
2 days ago
- Telegraph
Spain's power cut shows the risks of gas-free Britain
Britain's National Energy System Operator (Neso) has set an ambition to run the power grid without gas by the end of this year. It's just a trial period but Neso has said it is a glimpse of what the future holds. It has already boasted of running '95pc carbon-free', although this has only been possible because of a quirk of carbon accounting rules that designates the burning of wood at an industrial scale as zero carbon. That is despite the carbon dioxide emissions from so-called wood-pellet biomass being higher than for the coal it replaced. Go figure. Whether Neso's ambition to be totally gas-free will be possible even with the dodgy carbon accounting rules is unclear. In the summer months, gas power stations are often turned up by the system operator in order to stabilise the grid – not through the power they provide so much as the way they work. Gas power stations generate electricity through turbines, which generate something called inertia. This is important to control voltage across the network. The basis of our power grid is alternating current, linked to the speed of turbine rotation. But the way we generate out electricity is changing. The energy transition has seen a major deployment of wind and solar farms. These typically produce direct current, which is different to the alternating current our grid uses. It is converted to alternating current using electronic devices. Not only do wind and solar not produce the alternating current required by the grid, they also lack inertia. As we replace conventional generation with renewables, we reduce the amount of inertia on the grid. This makes it less resilient to faults, which can disrupt the frequency. Why? Because conventional gas or coal generators are big, heavy machines that resist changes to their speed of rotation. They act as a brake, slowing changes in grid frequency.
Telegraph
3 days ago
- Telegraph
Britain to rely on France to avoid blackouts this winter
Britain will rely on electricity from France to guard against the risk of blackouts this coming winter, officials have said. The National Energy System Operator (Neso), which oversees Britain's electricity grid, said it would import power from France and other nearby European neighbours this winter to help backstop the network. It plans to use the interconnectors linking the UK with France, Holland, Belgium, Norway and Denmark to back up the UK's own power stations on 'tight days' when supplies are stretched. Interconnectors are high voltage cables laid across the seabed between the UK and its neighbours. Those currently in operation have a total capacity of about 9 gigawatts (GW), with plans to double that by 2030. Details of the UK's expected reliance on electricity imports have emerged in Neso's early winter outlook report, which sets out its plans for coping with the colder months. Officials said they expected 'sufficient operational surplus throughout winter, allowing for natural variations in weather'. However, they added: 'There may be some tight days and early indications suggest these are most likely to occur in early December or mid-January.' On these 'tight days', Neso will lean on imports from Europe to give the UK an extra safety margin of 6.6GW, or about 11pc of total demand, one of the highest buffers in recent years. Brush with disaster The large margin comes after a near disaster last Jan 8 when poor renewable power generation and soaring demand left grid operators scrambling to keep the lights on. The maximum demand the UK could face this coming winter is about 60.5GW, Neso said – roughly equivalent to 20 large nuclear power stations of the kind under construction at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Backup power supplies are essential to support the UK's power grid as the reliance on renewables such as wind and solar increases. British winters often include lengthy 'dunkelflaute' spells marked by low light levels, short days and low winds. Such weather triggers a slump in renewable power generation and was a key cause of the brush with disaster in January. Some of the interconnectors Neso was relying on had also been shut down as a result of failures or maintenance. Over the last year about 37pc of the UK's electricity has come from renewable sources but solar switches off at night and wind is highly variable, meaning alternative sources are important. The UK is increasingly reliant on overseas generators with annual cost of power imports hitting £3.1bn in 2024 compared with £1bn in 2019, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Most electricity comes from France. Longer-term projects include Xlinks – a planned 2,500-mile set of cables between the UK and Morocco, connecting with a 1,500 square mile array of wind and solar farms in the north African desert. Spanish lessons Managing supply and demand on the electricity grid is a vital job. Shortages or surpluses of electricity can cause voltage and frequency fluctuations that can trigger blackouts, as happened in Spain and Portugal in April. A report into Spain's disastrous April blackout on Tuesday blamed power grid operator REE for having too few thermal power stations switched on. Such power stations use the heat from nuclear reactors or from burning gas or coal to generate steam, which in turn spins heavy metal turbine generators at fixed speeds. It means the electricity they produce has a very constant frequency and voltage, which helps to stabilise the whole grid. REE did not have enough thermal power stations switched on during peak hours of April 28 when the surge caused a chain reaction leading to the power outage, Sara Aagesen, Spain's energy minister, said. The report also criticised a number of power plant operators for not being switched on when they were being paid to operate. The unnamed power plants 'should have controlled voltage and, moreover, many of them were economically remunerated to do so. They did not absorb all the reactive power that was expected in a context of high voltages,' she said.
