How effective was the US attack on Iran's nuclear sites? A visual guide
Donald Trump was quick to claim that US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities had 'completely and totally obliterated' them. Still, it remains unclear how much physical damage has been done or what the longer-term impact might be on Iran's nuclear programme.
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) confirmed that attacks took place on its Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz sites, but insisted its nuclear programme would not be stopped. Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog said there were no immediate signs of radioactive contamination around the three locations after the strikes.
The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported no deaths from the US strikes, appearing to confirm Iranian claims they had been largely evacuated in advance. The health ministry said those who were injured showed no evidence of nuclear contamination. In the immediate aftermath, US military officials said the three sites had suffered 'severe damage' after an operation that had been planned for weeks, suggesting it was coordinated with Israel.
The Pentagon said a battle damage assessment was still being conducted.
Long regarded as the most difficult military target among Iran's nuclear sites, the uranium enrichment facilities at Fordow – the primary target of the operation – are buried beneath the Zagros mountains. Reports have suggested that the site was constructed beneath 45-90 metres of bedrock, largely limestone and dolomite.
Some experts have suggested the layering of the sedimentary rocks, including faults, would also make it more difficult to strike the centrifuge array, providing a kind of geological cushioning against a blast wave.
The attack – codenamed Operation Midnight Hammer – was carried out by seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers flying from the US, after a deception flight by other B-2s into the Pacific. Tomahawk missiles were fired from US ships in waters south of Iran.
The site was hit by a dozen 13,600kg massive ordnance penetrators – known as bunker busters – at approximately 2.10am Iranian time. It was the weapon's first operational use. The number used suggests a lack of confidence that a smaller strike could penetrate through to the target.
The result to a large extent depends on the kind of concrete inside the facility. Estimates of the bunker busters' penetration are based largely on reinforced concrete resistant to 5,000psi. Iran is believed to have used more resistant concrete.
While video from the site showed evidence of a fire in the immediate aftermath, satellite images published on Sunday were suggestive but far from conclusive.
The main support building at the site appeared to be undamaged, but the topography of a prominent area of ridge line appeared to have altered and been flattened out, with some evidence of rock scarring close to two clusters of bomb craters around the ridge.
Analysts had suggested that a strike could hit the main entrance tunnel to the site, but the main effort appears to have been in a different location.
At odds with Trump's claim of 'complete obliteration', two Israeli officials who spoke to the New York Times described serious damage at Fordow but said the site had not been completely destroyed.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, added: 'As for the assessment of the degree of damage underground, on this we cannot pronounce ourselves. It could be important; it could be significant, but no one … neither us nor anybody else could be able to tell you how much it has been damaged.'
Isfahan's nuclear technology centre was struck by Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from an Ohio-class submarine as opposed to bunker busters. Video posted on social media showed a distant detonation from the site on Saturday night.
According to the IAEA, in addition to four hit by Israeli strikes, six other buildings had now been attacked, including a fuel rod production facility. It said facilities targeted at Isfahan either contained no nuclear material or small quantities of natural or low-enriched uranium.
Natanz had previously been damaged by the first Israeli strikes of the conflict, with assessments then suggesting they had hit the power plant supplying the main centrifuge hall. Uranium had been enriched to up to 60%, short of weapons-grade material.
It appears that Natanz's underground enrichment hall was targeted. Enhancement of satellite images from the site on Sunday showed fresh damage to overground buildings and new cratering in the centre of the site.
In response to the US strikes, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel on Sunday, triggering countrywide air raid sirens and injuring 16 people.
Iran has claimed that it evacuated the sites several days ago, and satellite imagery from several days ago suggests there was unusual truck traffic at Fordow. That appears to confirm the movement of some material from the site, possibly including the uranium stockpile – or parts of it – which remains unaccounted for.
Hassan Abedini, the deputy political head of Iran's state broadcaster, said Iran had evacuated the three sites – Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow – some time ago.
'The enriched uranium reserves had been transferred from the nuclear centres and there are no materials left there that, if targeted, would cause radiation and be harmful to our compatriots,' he said.
Three days before the US attacks, 16 cargo trucks were seen near the Fordow entrance tunnel.
Related: What a difference a week makes: Trump falls into the Netanyahu trap
The head of the AEOI, Mohammad Eslami, claimed this month that Iran had another enrichment site 'in a secure and invulnerable location' that could house centrifuges.
Analysts have long argued that while it is possible to disrupt the physical function of a nuclear facility and limit the scope of a programme through, for example, the killing of scientists, the breadth of technical knowledge acquired during the decades-long programme is impossible to destroy.
Ultimately, the question is whether the US-Israeli attacks are seen as sufficient for Iran to capitulate, or whether they instead encourage the regime to accelerate its efforts to produce a viable nuclear weapon.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Fox News
30 minutes ago
- Fox News
ISIS behind deadly church suicide bombing near Damascus, Syrian interior minister says
The Islamic State is believed to be behind a deadly suicide bombing that happened at a Greek Orthodox church in Syria on Sunday. At least 22 people were killed, and 63 others were injured in the attack that took place at the Mar Elias Church in Dweil'a – on the outskirts of Damascus. It reportedly began while people were praying. The perpetrator first opened fire on the worshipers, before detonating himself. While no group immediately claimed responsibility for the mass-casualty attack, Syrian Interior Ministry spokesman Noureddine Al-Baba suggested ISIS as a likely culprit following a preliminary investigation. "The security of places of worship is a red line," Al-Baba said further, castigating ISIS and what remains of the former government of Ba'athist dictator Bashar al-Assad as actors trying to destabilize Syria. The country's foreign ministry echoed Al-Baba, describing the attack as "a desperate attempt to undermine national coexistence and to destabilize the country." The attack comes amid a time of heightened political unrest in the notoriously volatile Middle East – less than 24 hours after the U.S. launched airstrikes on three of Iran's top nuclear facilities. Israel launched a series of similar attacks, including attacks on the Iranian capital, Tehran, in the weeks prior.
Yahoo
32 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Oil hits five-month high after US hits key Iranian nuclear sites
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January as Washington's weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities stoked supply worries. Brent crude futures rose $1.88 or 2.44% at $78.89 a barrel as of 1122 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $1.87 or 2.53% at $75.71. Both contracts jumped by more than 3% earlier in the session to $81.40 and $78.40, respectively, five-month highs, before giving up some gains. The rise in prices came after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran is OPEC's third-largest crude producer. Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global crude supply flows. Iran's Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament approved a measure to close the strait. Iran has in the past threatened to close the strait but has never followed through on the move. "The risks of damage to oil infrastructure ... have multiplied," said Sparta Commodities senior analyst June Goh. Although there are alternative pipeline routes out of the region, there will still be crude volumes that cannot be fully exported out if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Shippers will increasingly stay out of the region, she added. Brent has risen 13% since the conflict began on June 13, while WTI has gained around 10%. The current geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to last without tangible supply disruptions, analysts said. Meanwhile, the unwinding of some of the long positions accumulated following a recent price rally could cap an upside to oil prices, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a market commentary on Sunday.
Yahoo
32 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Australia backs US strike on Iran to prevent nukes
Australia has supported US strikes on Iran to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons, as Anthony Albanese calls an urgent national security meeting. After days of escalation, the US launched strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday (AEST) as President Donald Trump declared "there will be peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran". The prime minister convened the National Security Committee on Monday morning, with public comments likely to follow. Foreign Minister Penny Wong has urged all parties to prioritise diplomacy and dialogue to prevent a "full-scale war" in the Middle East. "We support action to prevent Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, and that is what this is," she told Nine's Today show on Monday. "It's what happens next is what the world is focused on." The foreign minister said Washington had not made any requests of Australia. But she would not say if the joint US intelligence surveillance base, Pine Gap, in the Northern Territory had played a role in the operation. Senator Wong also said the number of Australians who had registered for help to leave the region had jumped to about 2900 in Iran and 1300 in Israel. Acting opposition foreign spokesman Andrew Hastie said the coalition had wanted to see Iran come to the negotiating table and submit to a full inspection by the International Atomic and Energy Agency. "We support those strikes, and now we want to see dialogue and diplomacy," he told ABC's RN. "We want to see a peaceful settlement from here, and I'm just not going to speculate on what steps might be taken next." Department of Foreign Affairs staff were evacuated from the embassy in Tehran last week and are helping Australian citizens and residents who make it through Iran's border with Azerbaijan. Senator Wong has previously said that while Australia has deployed Australian Defence Force personnel to assist with evacuation efforts, they aren't there for combat purposes. Iran's parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, where about a quarter of the world's oil transits through, prompting fear prices will be sent skyrocketing. Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce said it "goes without saying that Iran was up to no good". "This could go south in the most tremendous way for Australia and I did see a sense of gloating and hubris from the United States," he told Seven's Sunrise show on Monday. "That is alright if it is the end of the game, but if this takes the next step we are all going to be involved." Despite questions over whether Australia should do more to support its major ally, former ambassador to the US Arthur Sinodinos said combat troops weren't the way forward. "There's no way we would put troops on the ground," he told AAP. "I don't think the government or the political establishment here are suggesting that we just follow whatever the US is going to do." Australia has previously provided some resources around shipping lanes, but during the recent outbreak of violence, the government has refused to entertain the possibility of military involvement. However, the American strikes have also been labelled as a "terrifying and catastrophic escalation" with the Greens warning further violence from Israel or the US would impact ordinary Iranian civilians.
