Hagens or Martone? Mrtka or Aitcheson? Pronman and Wheeler debate 2025 NHL Draft
By Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler and Max Bultman
Each year around this time at The Athletic, we like to run a series of pieces in which our two NHL Draft experts, Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler, debate the draft's spiciest topics.
It's a way to dig deeper into the questions that could very well shape the draft when it kicks off on June 27, and to consider the multitude of factors and perspectives teams must weigh in making these all-important decisions.
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This year, though, there's one problem: Pronman and Wheeler seem to agree on a whole lot of the top names in the class. Both have Erie Otters defenseman Matthew Schaefer as their No. 1 player, and Saginaw Spirit center Michael Misa ranked No. 2. They're in line with one another on most of the names that make up the top 12.
But they're not in lockstep everywhere. They differ, for example, on where preseason favorite James Hagens fits into the class after slipping a bit through his freshman season at Boston College. They disagree on who the draft's next best defenseman is after Schaefer. And they're pretty far apart on one of the more intriguing Russian players in this year's group.
So as we draw nearer to draft day, here's this year's edition of Pronman versus Wheeler.
Bultman: Let's start near the top of the draft. You both have Schaefer at No. 1 and Misa at No. 2. But while Scott has Hagens at No. 3, Corey has him at 5 — and notably, a tier below both Porter Martone and Caleb Desnoyers.
Scott, we'll give you the first word here: why does Hagens belong above those players?
Wheeler: Even though Hagens is 5-foot-10.5, I have fewer questions or yellow flags about his game than I do about Martone, Desnoyers and Anton Frondell, the other forwards who I have ranked in the same tier but behind him.
I have questions about Martone's pace, Desnoyers' offense (relatively speaking) and Frondell's consistency. On skating, handling and smarts, Hagens gets among the highest grades in the draft. He's a natural center who has stayed there in a class with several centers near the top who've actually played a lot of wing in the last two years. I believe he stays there in the NHL because of his skating and drive (he's more competitive than people give him credit for).
We've seen him be a skill guy and break records at U17s and U18s (where he outproduced Martone, and where Desnoyers' role was reduced as the tournament went on). We've seen him be a driver at the World Juniors (where Martone's role was reduced) and lead a team to a gold medal as its most-used forward. And while he didn't have the world-beating freshman year in college that Macklin Celebrini or Adam Fantilli did, I think those two set the bar a little too high. He still had an excellent season on a top team, and I expect him to be one of the best players in college hockey as a sophomore.
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Had he played in the CHL, I believe he would have produced closer to Misa than Desnoyers or Martone.
Bultman: Corey, why is Hagens behind Martone and Desnoyers for you?
Pronman: I do agree with Scott that Hagens would have produced closer to Misa than Desnoyers and Martone in the CHL. I think he had a good chance to be even more productive than Misa was in the OHL. He's the most offensively talented player in the draft, just like how Kent Johnson was in the 2021 NHL Draft. I believe he's going to be a great NHL forward, with legit 60-80 point potential, and potentially even down the middle. He's an outstanding pro prospect who is dynamic and will have a long, productive career.
But the evaluation can't stop at the level of offense a player has or their accolades. Alexis Lafrenière was more decorated than Tim Stützle, and Bowen Byram more so than Moritz Seider. We have to think about how the players' games will translate to the NHL. In the cases of Misa, Desnoyers and Martone, I don't think their pure skill levels and offensive sense are massively lower than Hagens, but in the case of Misa, he's just as good a skater while being a lot bigger, Desnoyers is taller and harder to play against although not quite as fast and Martone is way heavier although the skating gap is large toward Hagens.
I just think against NHL defensemen, and especially in the playoffs, their games will elevate more at the fastest, most physically demanding level while providing their fair share of puck play. There aren't many players we've seen make a major dent in the playoffs in recent years that look like Hagens (although Toronto has been one win away numerous years from changing that).
That said, this has to be the dullest 'divide' we've had at the top in some time. I love Hagens' game, and it feels like I've been portrayed as a hater because we need to have some sort of debate! Scott's list and my list are pretty similar, and in this case, I have Hagens two spots lower! I would not be too offended at all if I were on a team that wanted to take Hagens over Desnoyers, for example.
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Wheeler: I would argue there are players of all shapes and sizes who've elevated and who've struggled in recent years. We've seen sub-6-foot Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel step up again and again. We're a few years removed from Jonathan Marchessault winning the Conn Smythe. Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett always elevate. Nazem Kadri, despite that awkward skating stride and average size, did, too. Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho just led the Canes in scoring. Joe Pavelski, William Karlsson, you go down the list, there are guys of similar sizes making impacts all over the playoffs every year in recent years.
Hagens is going to play at (roughly) 190 pounds. That's heavier than many of those players. He's certainly competitive and can skate at playoff pace, and I touched on why I think his game will translate/the tools that get high grades. I think he's capable of becoming a comparable player in terms of impact to many of the players listed above.
Pronman: I don't think his play style is really similar to those players in terms of compete. That being said, I compare him to William Nylander as a player who's been good in the playoffs for Toronto. This is really quibbling, because I think Hagens can be an excellent player, but my point is that I have mild reservations on his game, especially in regard to his lack of interior play. Plenty of small players have been great playoff performers of late, and I've seen Hagens over time be a big-game player and compete well, but it's been more inconsistent.
Bultman: Corey mentioned your lists being similar this year. To that point, you two have 10 of the same players in the top 11, in slightly differing orders. The main difference is which defenseman you each feel is the second-best in the class, behind Schaefer. Scott gave that nod to Radim Mrtka, at No. 7 on his list. Corey has Kashawn Aitcheson the second-best D (No. 11), and Mrtka at 16.
So, Corey, we'll start with you this time: What makes you prefer Aitcheson to Mrtka?
Pronman: Aitcheson is a nearly 6-foot-2 defenseman who skates well, scored 26 goals in the OHL this season, 39 points the previous season, and offense isn't his calling card. He's a super physical and competitive player who provides a unique role. I think he, Mrtka and Jackson Smith project as second pair defensemen on good teams. Mrtka reminds me a lot of Simon Edvinsson and Dmitri Simashev. He's an excellent all-around player, but the special part of his game is his frame. I would rather bet on the player whose special trait is his compete in Aitcheson.
Bultman: Scott, what elevates Mrtka for you?
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Wheeler: I would rather bet on the high-end skating right-shot D in a nearly 6-foot-6 profile, and would argue that the special part of his game is the mobility as much as the size. He's one of the better-skating D in the class for me, and the league is trending toward his profile. Despite Aitcheson's high goal totals, I also have questions about just how much offense he's going to have at the next level.
If they're both top-four five-on-five guys, penalty killers and PP2 quarterbacks, I expect that Mrtka will have a higher impact in those kinds of minutes. I think he's got a chance to develop into more than that, too. Mrtka is also a June '07, whereas Aitcheson is a September '06, and I think Aitcheson's closer to maxing out in some areas than Mrtka is in terms of development.
Pronman: I don't think Scott and I have seen Mrtka's skating similarly in our conversations this season. He's graded him as a premier skater. I think it's good, but not elite feet — maybe it is for his size, but not overall.
Bultman: This draft is a little lighter on top Russians than other recent classes. But one player Corey has ranked in the first round (No. 30) is 6-foot-5 forward Daniil Prokhorov. Scott, you have him as a late second-rounder, ranked at No. 56.
Corey, why does Prokhorov belong in the first-round range?
Pronman: He's one of the best athletes in the draft. He skates very well for his size. He's also highly physical and uses his big frame. The offense in his game isn't exceptional, but he has secondary skill and could be a third-line winger in the NHL. You look at someone like Alexey Toropchenko, and I think he can be at least as good as that, if not better.
Bultman: Scott, you have him more toward the back of the second. What are your reservations about Prokhorov?
Wheeler: I just didn't see much skill when I watched him this year, and a review of all of his goals and assists at the end of the year as a sanity check didn't change my mind. He's a big, strong player who plays a physical game, gets to the front of the net and sticks with the play. He can play in straight lines and on the cycle. But I haven't seen much skill, playmaking or sense.
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I think Toropchenko is a good comp, but Toropchenko's career highs are 14 goals and 21 points, and he's probably a second-rounder in a 2017 re-draft, so I'd want to be pretty confident that he's going to be better than Toropchenko. Forwards of the 6-foot-5 variety rarely outperform their draft slot when they're selected in the first round.
I was similarly hesitant about Michael Rasmussen, Logan Brown, etc. (I'm high on Roger McQueen because I've seen it). He also wasn't nearly as productive as Daniil But was, for example. I understand why teams covet the player type. I just wouldn't use a first-rounder on a Toropchenko.
Pronman: My point was that I think he could at least be that. He reminds me more of Lawson Crouse than Toropchenko. When he played up age groups, for example, with Russia's U20 team toward the end of the year, he looked like he had more than sufficient skill for the NHL. How much different is his profile from Charlie Stramel's (Stramel a center, Toropchenko bigger)?
Wheeler: I think there are some similarities there as well. I didn't have Stramel rated in the first round either, though.
(Photos of Porter Martone and James Hagens: Dennis Pajot and Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)
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