IMD raises rain forecast to 106%
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reiterated that the 2025 monsoon season will get above normal rainfall revising upward its rainfall forecast for the four-month monsoon season to 106% from the earlier 105% issued last month.Though the monsoon entered mainland India a week earlier on May 24, the IMD will measure rainfall received only during June to September as monsoon rainfall. "The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall," said M Ravichandran, secretary, earth sciences ministry, at a press conference on Tuesday. The rainfall is expected to be in the range of 102% to 110% due to +/- 4% model error.The monsoon onset over Kerala happened a week earlier on May 24 against the normal date of June 1. The heavy rainfall wreaked havoc in cities like Mumbai and Bengaluru, delayed the kharif sowings and damaged the standing crop in many states.IMD expects the rainfall to remain above normal (> 106%) in south and central India, normal in northwest India (92-108%) and below normal in northeast India ( < 94%). The core monsoon zone, consisting of parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal, which has rainfed agriculture, is also expected to have above normal rainfall.The IMD has also issued a forecast for the month of June saying the average rainfall for the country during June is most likely to be above normal (>108%). Many global scale and regional factors were favourable for the rapid progress of the monsoon, including formation of a low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea. "Now, a low-pressure area has formed in the Bay of Bengal, which will invigorate the monsoon over Bay of Bengal," said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General Meteorology, IMD."Above-normal rainfall carries benefits for agriculture and water resources but also introduces risks such as flooding, disruptions to transportation, public health concerns, and harm to ecosystems," warned IMD.Many meteorologists expect a hiatus in the progress of the monsoon in June and IMD said it expects some slowdown in the monsoon's progress. "The rate of northward advance of the monsoon and the rainfall being received is expected to decline after 3-4 days," s aid Mohapatra.Pune: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reiterated that the 2025 monsoon season will get above normal rainfall revising upward its rainfall forecast for the four-month monsoon season to 106% from the earlier 105% issued last month.Though the monsoon entered mainland India a week earlier on May 24, the IMD will measure rainfall received only during June to September as monsoon rainfall. "The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall," said M Ravichandran, secretary, earth sciences ministry, at a press conference on Tuesday. The rainfall is expected to be in the range of 102% to 110% due to +/- 4% model error.The monsoon onset over Kerala happened a week earlier on May 24 against the normal date of June 1. The heavy rainfall wreaked havoc in cities like Mumbai and Bengaluru, delayed the kharif sowings and damaged the standing crop in many states.IMD expects the rainfall to remain above normal (> 106%) in south and central India, normal in northwest India (92-108%) and below normal in northeast India ( < 94%). The core monsoon zone, consisting of parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal, which has rainfed agriculture, is also expected to have above normal rainfall.The IMD has also issued a forecast for the month of June saying the average rainfall for the country during June is most likely to be above normal (>108%). Many global scale and regional factors were favourable for the rapid progress of the monsoon, including formation of a low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea. "Now, a low-pressure area has formed in the Bay of Bengal, which will invigorate the monsoon over Bay of Bengal," said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General Meteorology, IMD."Above-normal rainfall carries benefits for agriculture and water resources but also introduces risks such as flooding, disruptions to transportation, public health concerns, and harm to ecosystems," warned IMD.Many meteorologists expect a hiatus in the progress of the monsoon in June and IMD said it expects some slowdown in the monsoon's progress. "The rate of northward advance of the monsoon and the rainfall being received is expected to decline after 3-4 days," s aid Mohapatra.
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