Will the Switch 2 Send Nintendo's Stock to the Next Level?
Nintendo's recently launched Switch 2 console has been breaking records.
The company is expecting sales to rise by more than 60% this year.
Its valuation is a bit rich, with the stock trading at close to 50 times its trailing earnings.
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The latest video game console from Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) is now out. The Switch 2 is a newer version of the company's original Switch device, and the early indications are that it is a big hit thus far.
With shares of Nintendo already up more than 40% this year (returns as of June 13), could this send this stock to even higher levels in the weeks and months ahead? Here's a closer look at what the early numbers are for the Switch 2, and whether Nintendo's stock is a no-brainer buy at this point.
The Switch 2 officially launched on June 5. Through just the first four days after its launch, there were more than 3.5 million units sold, making it the fastest-selling Nintendo console. The original Switch device didn't even hit 3 million units sold by the end of its first month.
The new console also hit a record for U.S. sales during its launch week, with more than 1.1 million units sold. For the fiscal year, which ends in March, Nintendo forecasts that it will end up selling 15 million units, and it looks to have a terrific start already. This is particularly impressive given that the new Switch console is priced $150 higher than the original Switch (launched in 2017), and $100 higher than the Switch OLED version (launched in 2021).
Nintendo recently wrapped up a tough fiscal year, which ended on March 31. Its sales fell by more than 30% to 1.2 trillion yen ($8 billion) as hardware sales plummeted more than 31%, with consumers eagerly awaiting the launch of the new Switch 2 console and holding off on new purchases. Profits also fell by 43% to 279 billion yen ($1.9 billion).
However, a strong performance by the Switch 2 could turn those fortunes around. The company is expecting sales for the current fiscal year to top 1.9 trillion yen ($13.1 billion), which would translate into a growth rate of around 63%. It would, however, be just a 14% improvement from fiscal 2024.
Nintendo's stock has been a raging-hot buy in recent months. The danger, however, is that with such a strong run, it may be difficult for investors to generate strong returns at an inflated price. Currently, Nintendo's stock trades at around 50 times its trailing earnings. Even based on analyst forecasts, it's at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 46.
Those are high earnings multiples to be paying for Nintendo's stock. While the company has some terrific, iconic brands and intellectual property in its portfolio, its growth may not necessarily be strong enough to justify such a high premium. More than 60% revenue growth this year is impressive, but given the steep drop-off it experienced in the most recent fiscal year, a 14% growth rate over a two-year window looks far less impressive.
Another risk to factor in is a possible slowdown in global economies, especially as tariffs weigh on countries all over the world. While Switch 2 sales were impressive out of the gate, longer-term question marks remain about how well demand will hold up over the entire year, and whether software sales will also be strong.
Nintendo is a great company, but I wouldn't invest in it at its current valuation. A lot would have to go right for the gaming stock to continue rallying much higher than where it is today.
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David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Nintendo. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Will the Switch 2 Send Nintendo's Stock to the Next Level? was originally published by The Motley Fool
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