NZ's goal to get smoking rates under 5 percent this year – why that's highly unlikely
By By Janet Hoek and Jude Ball* of
More than 80,000 people would need to quit smoking this year to bring Aotearoa's overall smoking prevalence under 5 percent.
Photo:
123rf.com
Next week is "scrutiny week" in Parliament - one of two weeks each year when opposition MPs can hold ministers accountable for their actions, or lack thereof.
For us, it's a good time to take stock of whether New Zealand is on track to achieve its smokefree goal of reducing smoking prevalence to under 5 percent and as close to zero as possible, among all population groups, this year.
The latest New Zealand Health Survey shows that, for the first time in a decade, smoking rates have flatlined rather than fallen. Stark inequities persist, with daily smoking prevalence among Māori at 14.7 percent (compared to 6.1 percent among European New Zealanders).
To bring New Zealand's overall smoking prevalence under 5 percent would require more than 80,000 people to quit this year. Achieving the goal equitably means more than 60,000 of those people would need to be Māori.
The government's repeal of earlier measures predicted to bring rapid and equitable reductions in smoking prevalence means achieving the Smokefree 2025 goal for all population groups is now highly unlikely.
Proposed by the Māori Affairs Select Committee and adopted by the then National-led government in 2011, the Smokefree 2025 goal has always had equity at its heart.
At that time, smoking prevalence among Māori was 37.7 percent and 14.7 percent among European New Zealanders. Reducing smoking rates to less than 5 percent for all population groups offered an opportunity to profoundly reduce health inequities burdening Māori.
Early discussions recognised the large inequities in smoking rates. Speaking about his role in the select committee inquiry, former National Party leader Simon Bridges stated:
The picture I had of smoking was quite wrong. Most of the time, smoking is not this idea of a free market with adults who freely consent to take up smoking but the more complex, difficult situation of children smoking as a result of parents and grandparents who smoked . That means that a more intense, stronger, more interventionist approach is called for.
The first Smokefree Action Plan, only introduced a decade later in late 2021, included more intense measures and established a Māori and Pacific oversight committee to ensure all actions taken promoted equity.
The action plan introduced three key initiatives: denicotinisation, a large reduction in outlets selling tobacco, and the smokefree generation strategy.
All were expected to have strong pro-equity outcomes. Modelling predicted denicotinisation would bring unprecedented reductions in smoking prevalence, eliminating the gaps between Māori and non-Māori. Reducing tobacco availability would end the widespread access to tobacco in lower-income communities.
The smokefree generation, a longer-term endgame strategy that would have meant anyone born after 2009 could no longer buy tobacco, was predicted to significantly reduce inequity, given the younger Māori (and Pacific) population structure.
Then Minister of Health Ayesha Verrall noted:
While smoking rates are heading in the right direction, we need to do more, faster, to reach our goal. If nothing changes, it would be decades till Māori smoking rates fall below 5 percent, and this government is not prepared to leave people behind.
The coalition government's repeal of these measures in early 2024 left a void, but Associate Health Minister Casey Costello reaffirmed a commitment to the Smokefree 2025 goal. A January 2024 update to Cabinet stated:
The government remains committed to further reducing smoking rates and achieving the Smokefree 2025 goal of daily smoking prevalence of less than 5 percent for all population groups.
However, by late 2024 the narrative began changing. In November, Costello launched a new smokefree action plan in a final push to reach the headline 5 percent target. Her plan does not emphasise the structural changes (such as fewer outlets selling tobacco) called for by the Māori Affairs Select Committee.
Instead, it relies on health promotion programmes to reduce smoking uptake and on increasing attempts to quit by "reinvigorating" stop-smoking messages and improving referral rates to support.
We argue New Zealand will likely fall well short of its 2025 goal to bring smoking rates below 5 percent and reduce inequities, despite an ongoing commitment by Health New Zealand-Te Whatu Ora.
During scrutiny week, we hope Associate Health Minister Costello will be asked how she explains the discrepancy between her earlier commitment to achieving the Smokefree 2025 goal among all population groups and more recent comments which appear to roll back the equity goal.
More importantly, we hope questions will probe how she plans to reduce smoking prevalence among Māori to a third of its current level, and what evidence she has that the steps she proposes will work.
* Janet Hoek receives funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand, the Marsden Fund, NZ Cancer Society and NZ Heart Foundation. She is a member of the Health Coalition Aotearoa's smokefree expert advisory group and of the Ministry of Health's smokefree advisory group, a member of the HRC's Public Health Research Committee, and a Senior Editor at Tobacco Control (honorarium paid). She serves on several other government, NGO and community advisory groups. Jude Ball receives funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand, the Marsden Fund, NZ Cancer Society, NIB Foundation, and the Health Promotion Agency. She is affiliated with the Public Health Association of New Zealand, a member of Health Coalition Aotearoa's smokefree advisory group, and serves on other NGO and community advisory groups.
-
This story
originally appeared on The Conversation.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
RNZ News
43 minutes ago
- RNZ News
Youth offending drops with safe, stable housing
Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon An Otago University study has found a link between safe, stable housing and a reduction in youth offending rates. The study looked at the relationship between different types of housing assistance, including emergency housing, public housing, and the accommodation supplement. Lead author Chang Yu said researchers found clear links between housing deprivation and alleged youth offending. "We found offending decreased significantly among young people living in public housing or receiving the accommodation supplement, compared with the general population. "The research underscores the importance of stability in housing assistance - more stable forms of assistance are associated with better outcomes beyond shelter, particularly in reducing youth justice involvement. "Emergency housing - which provides accommodation for seven nights - remains a highly debated model, attracting both support and criticism. This study adds to the debate by showing that emergency housing does not appear to reduce youth offending." The study found that 3 years after moving into public housing, alleged offences and court charges among young people reduced by 11.7 percent and 10.9 percent more than the general population. Rates of alleged offending and court charges also decreased by 13 percent among those receiving an accommodation supplement. Yu said stable and longer-term housing can positively impact whānau and provide social cohesion. "If you have stable housing, then the kids can consistently attend school and develop community bonds. The parents will have more time to spend with their children." he said. It found Māori and Pacific youth face systemic disadvantages in both the housing and justice systems. "Housing deprivation is closely linked to justice sector involvement. This suggests that youth offending cannot be addressed in isolation from housing conditions - addressing structural inequities in housing is essential for meaningful justice reform." Yu called for the government to move beyond short-term solutions for housing that provided more security for people to survive. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
RNZ News
4 hours ago
- RNZ News
Approaching life-changing diagnosis for "missing millions" with ME/CFS
Photo: Professor Warren Tate Photo: Supplied Anyone who has or knows someone with ME, chronic syndrome fatigue or long covid knows that being believed is one of the toughest parts of having the condition. University of Otago Emeritus Professor Warren Tate has dedicated his life to researching ME/CFS and is considered a leading authority on long covid. Along with his team, he has been developing a diagnostic test, that so far has shown promising results. If implemented, it would be life-changing. Warren and his co-researcher Dr Katie Peppercorn have also released a one-of-a-kind book to help clinicians and researchers find ways of better understanding post-viral conditions and improve the lives of those 'missing millions' affected with ME/CFS and most recently long covid.
RNZ News
4 hours ago
- RNZ News
Approaching life-changing diagnosis for 'missing millions'
Photo: Professor Warren Tate Photo: Supplied Anyone who has or knows someone with ME, chronic syndrome fatigue or long covid knows that being believed is one of the toughest parts of having the condition. University of Otago Emeritus Professor Warren Tate has dedicated his life to researching ME/CFS and is considered a leading authority on long covid. Along with his team, he has been developing a diagnostic test, that so far has shown promising results. If implemented, it would be life-changing. Warren and his co-researcher Dr Katie Peppercorn have also released a one-of-a-kind book to help clinicians and researchers find ways of better understanding post-viral conditions and improve the lives of those 'missing millions' affected with ME/CFS and most recently long covid.
