Why America's review of AUKUS matters to Asia
Defence will be at the front of discussions between Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and US President Donald Trump when they meet at the G7 in Canada this week.
The AUKUS deal, in which the US would supply nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, will be discussed after the Pentagon last week announced a review of the deal to ensure it reflected Mr Trump's 'America first' policy.
Mr Albanese said he'll pitch the benefits of the submarine deal to the US in the meeting. 'I will indicate that very clearly going forward.''
What is AUKUS?
AUKUS is the name for the security deal Australia, the UK and the US (A-UK-US) agreed to at the end of 2021.
The first, and biggest, aspect of the pact is the submarine deal, called Pillar One. The UK and the US — which have nuclear-powered submarines — agreed to work with Australia and share plans for their subs so Australia could build its own.
The second AUKUS pillar will involve enhancing Australia's defence capabilities with the help of the UK and US more broadly.
Joe Biden thanked his "pal" Scott Morrison during the announcement of the AUKUS pact. ( Reuters: Tom Brenner )
Does Australia have other deals within Asia?
The QUAD is a strategic alliance between Australia, India, Japan and the US designed to counter the influence of China in the region. So far, it doesn't involve submarines.
Lavina Lee, an associate professor in security studies at Macquarie University and senior fellow at the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, said the QUAD so far has been almost trying to camouflage itself.
'What they've been doing is more focused on the kind of non-military aspects and they've kept the military part on the down low,' Dr Lee said.
Why is AUKUS in the headlines?
The Trump administration last week announced it wanted to review the agreement, which was signed off by Joe Biden. It said it wanted to make sure it aligns with Mr Trump's 'America first' policy.
That set off alarm bells in Australia, although Defence Minister Richard Marles downplayed the news, as "natural and understandable" for the new administration to "look under the hood" of the submarine pact.
The Trump Administration has announced it is reviewing the AUKUS partnership. ( ABC News: Keane Bourke )
Why should Asia be concerned?
Dr Lee said Australia needs the US alliance.
'We've effectively ordered all of our defence relations around the US alliance ... but without the United States, we're actually not that capable,' she said.
'The problem really is we have relied on the United States for so long, so ... it's actually important that we become more self reliant.
'South Korea and Japan are exactly the same, so we all might be worried about this and all trying to be more self reliant.
Lavina Lee says Australia must rely on the US for defence security. ( Supplied )
"I think that that's an actual important objective, but from the short to medium term it's not possible.
'And if you think about the window of time where we're really all worried about the risk of conflict, I think most analysts would agree it's actually around the end of this decade, maybe in 10 years' time. We don't really have that much time to find an alternative.''
What does China think?
Whatever happens Beijing would be reassured, said Jie Chen, associate professor in political science and international relations at the University of Western Australia.
'In a very broad strategic sense, whatever the review of AUKUS is, it seems Beijing has reasons to feel reassured. That is because the overall environment, the overall trend is that White House under Trump is quickly abandoning the Biden style coordinated globalised strategy to contain China.
'The Chinese no longer believe, if they ever had a doubt, that the current Trump administration actually has a coordinated China policy at all. Let alone a concerted China containment strategy.''
Jie Chen says China would be reassured by the US's plan to review AUKUS while Taiwan would be concerned. ( ABC News: Eliza Borello )
What about Taiwan?
Mr Chen said news of the AUKUS review would be concerning for Taiwan.
'Considering the broad background has been that Donald Trump [and] his officials are always giving fragmented and confusing signals to Taiwan, and that [those signals were] deeply concerning to the Taiwanese,' he said.
'In the middle of such a confusing atmosphere [if] suddenly they hear Americans announcing that they would review AUKUS with America first ... I can hypothesise ... that right as I speak, Taiwan's presidential office and [foreign affairs] are really concerned, if not also annoyed.
'Because unlike people in Beijing, those officials and decision makers in Taipei, to this very moment, still couldn't figure out what Donald Trump really wants.''
What about the QUAD?
Dr Lee said there were likely to be implications for the QUAD.
"I think the message would be that the Trump administration really cares about hard power,'' she said.
"So it's all about hard power and how does hard power contribute to deterrence and the QUAD so far has been almost trying to camouflage its reason for existence.''
The reason Australia, India, Japan and the US joined forces was they all have a heightened threat perception of China and are trying to work together to effectively compete and counter Chinese influence in Southeast Asia and the Pacific.
"What they've been doing is more focused on the kind of non military aspects and they've kept the military part on the down low. They've been focused on things like ... maritime domain awareness but ... using civilian infrastructure,' Dr Lee said.
"I think the United States under the Trump administration would be looking for what opportunities there are to actually militarise the QUAD, [to] un-camouflage it.
"[But] the the real problem is that not all four countries might have a threat perception of China.''
The Quad is a summit that is not about China, but really is about China. ( Supplied: Prime Minister's Office )
Should other countries be concerned?
Dr Lee said nations in Southeast Asia had already taken themselves out of the equation.
'They're all hedging to various degrees. They're hedging the risk of who's going to win out in the end. They don't want to take a side,' she said.
'Their primary objective is to get as much out of both sides as possible, so it's a bit like a Cold War situation where they're really trying to squeeze as much economic benefits out of both sides.''
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Alternative step three: the more alert but not alarmed option Dr Shanghagi also recommends the following habits as a middle ground if you don't want to delete yourself completely: • Use privacy-first tools: Browsers like Brave or Firefox, along with ad blockers, can cut down on invisible tracking and surveillance. • Use alias emails and phone numbers: Services like Firefox Relay or SimpleLogin let you mask your real contact info when signing up for things online. • Create a 'privacy-first' identity: For newsletters, online stores, or giveaways, use a separate email and minimal real info. Keep your primary identity for essentials only. • Be mindful on social media: Oversharing is a goldmine for data brokers. Share less, and when in doubt, leave it out. • Avoid 'Sign in with Google' or Facebook logins: They may save time, but they link your activity across platforms. This is not great for privacy. • Tighten your settings: Check your privacy settings regularly across social, email, and mobile accounts. Do not trust the defaults. • Use a VPN: It hides your IP address and encrypts your internet traffic. Very useful when on public Wi-Fi or travelling. • Opt out where you can: Unsubscribe from marketing lists and use opt-out tools or services to remove your info from broker databases. Be selective with online forms: Skip the optional fields. your birthdate or phone number often isn't necessary. The goal isn't to disappear. It's to be intentional. A little effort goes a long way in protecting your digital footprint.' Generally, if it's not something a company has to know to provide whatever service it is for require, you don't actually have to give them any real information. Have fun coming up with your alias, and make sure it's something you can remember, so your real identity stays safe. Another thing that came up repeatedly from the experts we spoke to, and the guides we read is to use privacy focused web browsers, like Firefox and Brave, and to make use of privacy focused extensions. Good luck out there.
