Why FM is suddenly talking about Scottish independence
Six weeks ago John Swinney delivered his programme for government setting out his plans for the year ahead.
Some 12 months out from the next Holyrood elections the First Minister told MSPs his focus would be on "eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, tackling the climate emergency, delivering high quality and sustainable public services".
At no point did he mention independence.
The SNP's founding goal was not noted once in his speech nor in the 46-page accompanying document.
Instead, there were announcements on scrapping peak rail fares, on creating 100,000 more GP appointments and the lifting of the blanket ban on rail passengers drinking alcohol while travelling.
READ MORE:
But what was also telling was that the lack of any talk around independence did not even merit any news coverage.
That's because of the implicit acceptance by the SNP, by opposition parties and by the media that independence was now "off the radar", as Nicola Sturgeon pointed out in January.
Nobody was actually expecting the SNP's fourth First Minister to say anything about independence.
Now there are strong reasons why he didn't mention it.
First, Mr Swinney's SNP has not got a majority in Holyrood with his minority government requiring the support of opposition parties to get his legislation passed.
Earlier this year the SNP - perhaps wary of giving the Greens too much influence following the collapse of the Bute House Agreement last year - struck an agreement with the Lib Dems (as well as the Greens) to support the Budget.
But Alex Cole-Hamilton's price for his party's support was that Mr Swinney's government must not spend a "penny" promoting independence nor that the government spend time debating the issue in Holyrood.
Tickets for Unspun Live at the Edinburgh Fringe are available now — click here to book your place.
The second reason why Mr Swinney left out independence from his programme for government is likely grounded in what polling suggests are voters' priorities - namely, cutting NHS waiting times, improving living standards and tackling the cost of living through growing the economy and improving education.
YouGov research in March put independence much lower down the list of priorities for Scots with just 14% saying it should be a top priority for the Scottish Government.
However, what may explain Mr Swinney's about turn - giving a big speech today making the case for independence - is a pressing need to motivate SNP supporters.
The same YouGov polling in March found that independence is a high priority for this group of voters ranking third as their policy priority (behind health and education).
The SNP's defeat in the Hamilton, Larkhall, Stonehouse by-election, losing the seat to Labour, saw the party's support drop there from 46% in the 2021 election to 29% on June 5.
It is certainly a wake-up call to the party - and of course Mr Swinney - showing it that the SNP needs to regain the support of a large number of former voters, some of whom may have stayed at home or voted for other parties two weeks ago.
The SNP's hope is of course that ramping up the independence message ahead of the next Holyrood election will persuade disgruntled SNP voters to back them to win again.
The First Minister will be hoping for the same outcome - and that another win will secure his own position for the next parliamentary term amid rumblings of discontent in his party.
We'll find out whether the strategy works when Scotland heads to the polls in less than a year.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Scottish Sun
4 hours ago
- Scottish Sun
Families face £20billion tax sting as Government borrowing soars to second highest May level on record
Labour have been accused of 'spending recklessly' TAX YIKES Families face £20billion tax sting as Government borrowing soars to second highest May level on record Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) FAMILIES face a £20billion tax hit after Government borrowing jumped last month, experts warned. The second highest figure on record for May, beaten only during the pandemic, saw borrowing surge to £17.7 billion, higher than forecast by the independent watchdog. Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up Receipts for the Treasury were up to £82 billion due to higher income tax and the NI increase that kicked in from April. But with sluggish growth and the high borrowing costs could mean Rachel Reeves could lose her £10 billion financial cushion by the Budget. Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, said the Chancellor may have to raise taxes between £10-£20 billion. He added: 'The under-performance of the economy and higher borrowing costs mean the Chancellor may already have lost the £9.9bn of fiscal headroom that she clawed back in March.' Shadow Chancellor, Sir Mel Stride said: 'Labour is spending recklessly, with no plan to pay for it. "Debt interest now costs us £100bn a year - that's almost twice the defence budget. 'Having turned on the spending taps, Labour have left themselves with only one option and that's to put up your taxes. Treasury Minister Darren Jones insisted the government had 'stabilised the economy and the public finances'. Growth forecast SLASHED in Spring Statement - sparking fears of MORE tax rises
Daily Mail
5 hours ago
- Daily Mail
ALEX BRUMMER: Treasury is a hurdle for growth
Britain has an overload of budgetary data. As the IMF noted in its recent annual inspection, too frequent fiscal events mean constant policy changes to meet targets. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is victim of her own rules in her determination not to be Liz Truss, who ruined the UK's reputation for probity. The rush to get on top of borrowing and debt was responsible for the ill-fated attack on winter fuel payments which is being reversed. Similarly, the Government is now under pressure from the backbenches to pull back on welfare reforms, introduced in the spring statement. The latest public sector borrowing data shows that in the first two months of the current financial year borrowing is not far off target. At £37.7billion it was less than the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted. It would be terrific if one could say this is down to growing GDP. Reality is that Reeves swingeing increase to employers' national insurance contributions brought in 22 per cent more to the Government coffers in May than a year earlier. Early months of the year often give a misleading reading. Tax receipts are boosted by the timing of capital gains payments. Spending by government departments has yet to ramp up. The full impact of the Government's interest rate bill is not felt. It is too soon for anyone in Whitehall to predict victory. The corollary of the stabilised public finances is May retail sales. The slump is a result of higher shop prices and rising uncertainty about jobs. The real worry for a government backing a growth agenda is that it is not happening. The just-published public spending review and infrastructure plans show that capital spending will climb to a peak of 3.9 per cent of output by 2027-28 but then fall back. It is unlikely to produce the transformation that Labour wants before the next election. The Treasury is spellbound by the public finances. That reflects a history of crisis management dating back to the 1976 sterling collapse and refreshed by the 2008 great financial crisis and the Truss episode. I recall during the banking crisis being called by a senior Treasury official who cautioned against big bailouts because it might trigger a run on the pound. The growth agenda doesn't sit easily at the Treasury. The Department for Business ought to be an expansion engine. It is hampered by a reputation as a parking space for sub-octane Cabinet ministers. Incumbent Jonathan Reynolds is no more than a cypher for Downing Street where real polices are set. The long delays in launching an industrial-tech strategy are a case in point. One must reach back to the Harold Wilson government of the 1960s to find a model for industrial innovation with the Department of Economic Affairs headed by George Brown. It eventually collapsed in a heap like its heavy drinking founder. A growth agenda, building on science, tech and AI excellence, needs a powerhouse department of growth and secretary of state capable of resisting Treasury orthodoxy. That person may not exist in a Labour government bereft of commercial experience and top-notch economic thinkers. Andy Burnham, in exile in Manchester, shows signs of the kind of bravery required. That's probably why political rivals would prefer he were not empowered.
Daily Mail
5 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Fergus Ewing's furious broadside as he says he'll now run AGAINST the SNP
One of the SNP 's longest-serving politicians has launched a vitriolic attack on the party for having 'lost its way' as he announced plans to stand as an independent. Fergus Ewing, a former Cabinet minister who has been an MSP since the Scottish Parliament was opened and an SNP member for around 50 years, said he cannot stand for the party again and 'defend the indefensible '. He said that the party has 'deserted' those it used to champion over the past decade and focused on issues 'largely irrelevant to most people's lives'. The politician also said that devolution is presently 'letting Scotland's people down' and the country is in a state of 'managed decline' under the SNP. Following the explosive statement, it was confirmed that the SNP had rescinded his membership - and he was also told he would be evicted from his office in the SNP corridors in parliament and the party whip removed. Mr Ewing, who had intended to remain an SNP MSP until the election before standing as an independent candidate for Inverness and Nairn, condemned the way the issue had been dealt with, saying: 'Fifty years' service, two line missive.' Emma Roddick, a former minister under Humza Yousaf who is on the Left of the party, will now stand directly against him as the SNP candidate next year. In his personal statement issued yesterday, Mr Ewing, whose mother Winnie is one of the biggest figures in the SNP's history following her landmark by-election victory in Hamilton in 1967, said the Scottish Parliament has been 'at its worst' in recent years. He said: 'The SNP has been part of the fabric of my life for more than half a century. Indeed, I believe there has been a distinctive thread of Ewing running through its plaid for even longer. I hope that is never removed. 'But fabrics can become worn. I hope the SNP can repair itself and return to the honour and traditions of those who first wove it in a manner that meets Scotland's real modern needs. 'The failures of the SNP to deliver on its long-standing pledges to dual the A9 and A96 are a major part of that. I cannot stand again for the SNP and defend the indefensible. 'I believe the SNP has lost its way and that devolution itself - presently - is letting Scotland's people down. It doesn't need to be this way.' He heavily criticised recent SNP leaders for choosing candidates who will 'slavishly support them' and for 'choosing the pliant over the talented'. In the decade since Alex Salmond stood down and was succeeded by Nicola Sturgeon, he said the SNP 'seems to have deserted many of the people whose causes we used to champion' on issues including oil and gas, farming, fishing, rural affairs, tourism and small business - and accused the party of 'betraying generations who fought for women's rights'. He said he has tried to act as a 'critical friend' to the party and said he warned Nicola Sturgeon about the 'strategic blunder' of entering a power-sharing alliance with the Greens, and also highlighted that current First Minister John Swinney negotiated the deal. Mr Ewing said: 'These failures - plus a strange preoccupation with issues regarded as largely irrelevant to most people' lives - have all cost the SNP much loss of electoral support but also something else which is priceless. Public trust. 'Scotland is indeed in a state of 'managed decline' as Sir Tom Hunter recently said.' Urging different parties to work together, he said that Holyrood needs to 'grow up'. It was confirmed by the SNP that its constitution sets out that party membership ceases when any individual declares their intention to stand against the party. Mr Ewing confirmed that he was informed yesterday (FRI) that his 'membership was over', that he would be evicted from his office at Holyrood and the SNP whip would be removed. The Inverness and Nairn seat is now expected to be hotly contested next year. In 2021, Mr Ewing secured 48 per cent of the vote for the party, with the Conservatives in second place on 28 per cent, Labour in third on 12 per cent, and the Lib Dems in fourth on six per cent. Edward Mountain, Scottish Conservative MSP for the Highlands and Islands, said: 'It speaks volumes about John Swinney and the SNP's appalling failures in government that even nationalist royalty is prepared to twist the knife in this way. 'By standing as an independent Fergus Ewing has made it clear he simply cannot defend his party's record to voters while out on the campaign trail. 'The SNP have shamefully abandoned the Highlands over their 18 years in power.' Neil Alexander, Scottish Liberal Democrat candidate for Inverness and Nairn, said: 'Fergus Ewing has sat around the cabinet table or on the backbenches for the entirety of the SNP's 18 years in government. He can't just walk away from the big part he has played in their record of failing the Highlands. 'While the two nationalists try to turn our constituency into a battleground for their party feud, I'm focused on what really matters to people here.' Mr Swinney said: 'It was with real sadness and deep regret that I heard of Fergus Ewing's decision to leave the Scottish National Party. 'We have both served the SNP and the cause of independence for many years, and I commend him for all that he achieved while serving in the SNP Government until 2021. 'Fergus had the option of standing at the forthcoming election for the SNP, given his status as an approved candidate. He chose not to accept that opportunity and I regret that he has ultimately decided instead to leave the party. 'The SNP approaches the 2026 election ahead in the polls, with growing support for independence, and I am looking forward to taking our positive, ambitious vision for Scotland's future to the people.'
