Longevity vs. peak: The Hockey Hall of Fame debate and 5 players who define it

What kind of Hall of Fame fan are you?
With the Hockey Hall of Fame committee meeting tomorrow to pick the class of 2025, and a stellar crop of first-time candidates added to some impressive holdovers, it's time to have the annual debate. After all, half the point of a sport having a highest honor is for fans to argue over who deserves it and who falls just short.
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When we talk about which kind of Hall a fan wants, we usually default to the old 'small hall' debate, which basically amounts to just how high you want to set the bar and inevitably ends with a fight over Bernie Federko. But there's another way to look at it, and it's the one we'll focus on today: Which matters more, a player's short-term peak or their long-term consistency?
Obviously, the ideal answer is 'both.' But the players who are truly great for an extended period aren't the ones we typically argue over. Joe Thornton and Zdeno Chara had MVP/Norris peaks to go with long careers of sustained excellence. Both are also getting in on the first ballot, so there's no debate to be had. It's the fringe cases that usually force us to pick one side or the other.
So, who you got? Let's look at this as a sliding scale, with five stops along the way.
You want: Career numbers. The bigger the better. And if those numbers are the result of a 20-season career built on consistent production, even better. The point here is that having a few great years is nice, but you're just as impressed by someone who can contribute year in and year out.
You don't need to see a bunch of individual awards, or even any at all. But you'd better see the big milestones — 500 goals, 1,000 points, that sort of thing.
Current HHOFers: Pierre Turgeon, Dino Ciccarelli, Mike Gartner
But not: Vince Damphousse
Today's poster candidate: Patrick Marleau
His case: These candidates are often slapped with the dreaded 'compiler' label, which in sports is usually a derisive way to say that somebody stuck around forever to produce numbers that look more impressive than they really are. Well, nobody compiled more that Marleau, whose 1,779 career games were enough to break Gordie Howe's once unbreakable record. Over that time, Marleau racked up 566 goals and 1,197 points, which would be enough to get any player into the HHOF consideration.
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But … he never won an award, or was a postseason All-Star, or finished higher than ninth in Hart voting. He was rarely in the conversation as the best player on his own team. And to a certain type of fan, Marleau just never 'felt' like a Hall of Famer. Should that matter, when the numbers are so high? Yeah, actually, there's a good case that it should.
Odds he gets in: Good. He's o-for-1 since becoming eligible last summer, and he feels like a long shot this year given how strong the new candidates are. But eventually? I think it's more likely than not.
You want: Big career numbers, same as the first group. But while you're not focused on a player's short-term peak, you'd like to at least see a few personal accolades. You don't need to see a Hart Trophy or a bunch of first-team All-Star honors. But you do want to see at least a few standout seasons, preferably with some awards balloting love, if only to reassure you that this player was in the conversation as being the best at something, at least for a while. After all, consistency is crucial, but just hanging around forever isn't enough — let's see some flashes of true greatness.
Current HHOFers: Mark Recchi, Mike Vernon, Phil Housley, Joe Nieuwendyk
But not: Bernie Nicholls
Today's poster candidate: Rod Brind'Amour
His case: He got to 452 goals and almost 1,200 points over a 20-year career, despite never being an All-Star, hitting 100 points or getting any Hart votes at all aside from one year where he finished 10th. That's pretty compile-y. But unlike Marleau and others, his trophy case isn't empty. Brind'Amour won two Selke Trophies for his two-way game, taking home the trophy in 2006 and 2007. That's one more Selke than guys like Jonathan Toews, Doug Gilmour or Steve Yzerman.
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In Brind'Amour's case, those two Selke years are a bit weird because they were the only two seasons where he was given serious consideration. Not only was he not a finalist any other year, he only had one other year where he was even in the top 10 (he finished ninth in 1999). Is that enough to turn a guy who was rarely the top center on his own team into a Hall of Famer?
I've mentioned this before, but the evolution of the Brind'Amour bandwagon has been fascinating. Ten years ago, I pitched him as an underrated comparable to (assumed sure thing) Marian Hossa, and people thought I was nuts. But over the years, he's gone from a virtual afterthought to a sneaky dark horse to a guy some of you are willing to go to battle for. Meanwhile, he's carving out a career as a very successful coach, which isn't supposed to help his case — players and builders are supposed to be completely separate categories — but can't hurt.
Odds he gets in: I think I'm with HHOF maestro Paul Pidutti, who suggests Brind'Amour eventually gets in on the strength of his coaching success, as the committee bends the rules just a bit to get a solid candidate over the finish line. He wouldn't get my vote, but I won't complain too loudly if (or when) he gets the call.
You want: Everything. Or at least long-term consistency and a strong peak. You want the major milestones, sure, but you're also going to need at least a couple of seasons where a guy was in the conversation as the very best at this position. He should have an All-Star honor or two, and ideally would have led the league in something important along the way.
In theory, this is the easiest slot to settle into, because you're covering all the bases. After all, most of the true legends would fall into this category, mixing longevity with a high peak. Hey, that's what Wayne Gretzky and Joe Sakic and Nicklas Lidstrom did, right? But it gets tricky with guys whose cases aren't as strong, and they often seem to be the ones who get overlooked by the committee.
Current HHOFers: Michel Goulet, Jean Ratelle, the Sedin twins
But not: Henrik Zetterberg
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Today's poster candidate: Keith Tkachuk
His case: He got over 500 goals and over 1,000 points, so he checks those boxes. He was also a second-team All-Star twice, in 1995 and 1998. In between those seasons, he had back-to-back 50-goal years, including one where he led the league. All told, there was a roughly four-to-six season stretch where he was considered one of the best power wingers in hockey. And while he wasn't dominant after that, he stuck around for another decade, playing well enough to get those career numbers into Hall-worthy territory.
Odds he gets in: Strong. In fact, with Jeremy Roenick going in last year, I'd expect Tkachuk and his arguably better case are now a question of when and not if.
You want: A sustained peak, with multiple All-Star picks. One or two won't cut it — you want to see something more like four or five years of 'best at his position' conversation. As long as you see that, you're not too worried about whether the player's career lasted long enough to rack up big lifetime totals. If anything, you view those late-career 60-point seasons as empty calories that don't mean much. Instead, you just want to know that a player was among the very best, for an extended period. That's what a Hall of Famer looks like, even if they don't add another decade of stat-padding.
Current HHOFers: Cam Neely, Pavel Bure, Eric Lindros, Paul Kariya
But not: Tim Kerr
The poster candidate: John LeClair
His case: From 1995 to 1999, LeClair was a first- or second-team All-Star every year. He also had back-to-back-to-back 50-goal seasons, in an era where barely anyone was hitting that milestone. The All-Star streak ended in 2000, but not by much, as he still put up 40 goals and finished third in All-Star voting. But after that, injuries and age caught up with him. Mix in the fact that he was a late bloomer, and his career totals don't really look HHOF-worthy; he just barely cracked 400 goals and 800 points.
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Still, you could make the argument that LeClair was the single best left winger in the league for a six-year stretch. Good luck finding anyone at any position who can say that and isn't in the Hall of Fame.
Odds he gets in: Low, presumably, since he's been eligible since 2010 and hasn't made it yet. You still see his name when we talk about potential candidates, but you rarely meet a fan who's adamant that LeClair has been snubbed. Still, who would you rather have for one season, or one game — peak LeClair, or peak Marleau? It's not a hard call for fans who remember watching both guys.
You want: The best of the best. That's it. That's what you're looking for. You want a candidate to be truly and inarguably elite, even if only for a little while. What did this player look like at their very best? How high do they rank on the 'you have one game to win and your life depends on it' draft board? You don't care how many seasons a player had where they were the seventh or eighth best in the league. The Hall of Fame should be for guys who were the absolute best, at least for a while.
Current HHOFers: Are there any? I'm not sure there are, which maybe isn't surprising given how rare this player is. I could see some fans trying to put Alexander Mogilny here when he eventually gets inducted, although I think his case is strong even without his legendary 76-goal year.
But not: Reggie Leach
Today's poster candidate: Tim Thomas
His case: I mean, if you have to play one seven-game series for everything you own, how many goalies would you take over 2011 Tim Thomas? That was the year he went .938 with a 2.00 GAA in the regular season and won the Vezina, then was even better in the playoffs to the tune of .940 and 1.98 to add the Conn Smythe and a Stanley Cup ring. If you wanted to call it the single greatest season any goalie has ever had, I'm open to hearing the case. And I'm almost certain you couldn't find a full season that beats it from anyone who isn't in the Hall, probably as a first-ballot pick like Dominik Hasek or Patrick Roy.
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Thomas only played four NHL games before turning 30, wasn't a regular until he was 32, and his entire career spanned fewer games played than part-time starters like Petr Mrazek, James Reimer and Jake Allen have today. But that legendary 2011 season, combined with another Vezina win in 2009, means he can clearly claim best-in-the-world honors, if only briefly.
Odds he gets in: They don't seem especially high. But maybe they should be?
(Top photo of Tim Thomas and Keith Tkachuk: Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images)

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