Canada, prepare for a decade of thrift and lower living standards

John Turley-Ewart is a contributing columnist for The Globe and Mail, a regulatory compliance consultant and a Canadian banking historian.
We are poorer than we think. Canadians running their retirement numbers are shining light in the dark corners of household finances in this country. The sums leave many 'anxious, fearful and sad about their finances,' according to a Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan survey recently reported in these pages.
Fifty-two per cent of us worry a lot about our personal finances. Fifty per cent feel frustrated, 47 per cent feel emotionally drained and 43 per cent feel depressed. There is not one survey indicator to suggest Canadians have made financial progress in 2025 compared with 2024.
The federal government was elected this spring promising to mitigate the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff war and implement a transformative economic agenda. If it succeeds, the effects will be felt in the medium to long-term. In the near term, Canadians know that their financial reckoning adds up to years of debt repayment, reducing expectations, making compromises, retiring later (or not retiring at all) and lower living standards.
House approves Bill C-5 to fast-track projects, Carney pledges summer consultations with Indigenous leaders
Our debt-to-household disposable income has bumped up against nearly 200 per cent for years now, putting Canada in first place among G7 countries. Canada's is 185 per cent; the average for all G7 countries is 125 per cent according to Statistics Canada. Canadian households collectively owe about $3-trillion, almost three-quarters of it is mortgage debt.
Today's Canadian dream is to make the next mortgage payment without having to borrow it. The housing crisis hasn't just hobbled the hopes of many Canadians seeking affordable housing; it is undercutting middle-class living standards.
Earlier this year at a conference with Canadian bank CEOs, Peter Routledge, who leads Canada's bank regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, alluded to the bleak financial reality many Canadian are facing this year and next as the cost of high household debt will take a bigger bite out of their disposable incomes.
Mr. Routledge said 2025 and 2026 will be challenging years. 'As of September 2024, 65 per cent or 3.8 million mortgages are set to renew by the end of 2026. Of these, approximately 62 per cent (or 2.4 million) have yet to experience increased payments.'
With higher mortgage payments layered atop elevated living costs that Canadians have endured over the past five years, materially increasing the price of basics such as food, there is much less money to put aside for retirement. Using the Bank of Canada's inflation calculator, what cost $100 in 2020 now costs $120.
Climbing costs associated with inflation and higher debt service payments are slowing savings and investment rates in Canada, which reduces funds available to pay for retirement. Statistics Canada's first quarter of its 2025 national balance sheet and financial flow accounts report, released on June 12, is a telling document.
Household savings and investment rates are 'down for a second consecutive quarter' because 'household spending (+1%) outpaced disposable income gains (+0.8%).' The rising net worth of Canadian households is showing signs of stalling, up 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 versus 1 per cent in the last quarter of 2024.
Opinion: A war-plan for Canada: Buy gold, sell oil, build
But that growth is misleading, given that it is the wealthiest 20 per cent of households that own 68.1 per cent of all financial assets and 51.2 per cent of real estate. Even the rich are not getting richer at the pace they are accustomed to.
We are starting to hit the credit wall in Canada. In the first quarter of this year mortgage demand declined as did demand for non-mortgage debt. Statistics Canada accounts for this by concluding that 'household borrowing slows as debt continues to outpace income growth.'
Mortgage interest payments are up this year by 0.3 per cent as mortgage renewals push households into higher interest rates versus those that prevailed during the pandemic when they were running at historic lows. If there is a bright spot in 2025, it is that decreases in the Bank of Canada policy interest rate this year has helped reduce interest payments on non-mortgage loans, many of which are home equity lines of credit. This helps pay for higher mortgage payments.
What all of this tells us, and what those wondering what retirement might look like are realizing, is that paying down household debt for the foreseeable future is where much of our disposable income as Canadians must go.
That thinking of retirement provokes anxiety in surveys on the matter shouldn't be surprising. It is one more item on a growing list of aspirations many Canadians cannot afford.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Globe and Mail

29 minutes ago

• Globe and Mail

Is Cameco Stock a Buy Now?

Shares of Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) have been on a rocket ride over the past three months or so, gaining a massive 50%-plus in a very short period of time. Is that a warning sign that Wall Street is baking in overly optimistic expectations or is the miner set to see a material improvement in its business over the coming years? There's a lot to unpack before you run out and buy Cameco stock right now. What does Cameco do? At its core, Cameco is a miner. Mining is a very capital-intensive business, given the cost of finding good places to build a mine, getting the approval to build a mine, building and operating a mine, and then, ultimately, returning the mine site back to its original state once the mine is closed. Complicating things a great deal is the fact that most miners produce commodity products, so their revenue and earnings are heavily impacted by often volatile commodity prices. Cameco is no different from other miners in this regard. But the uranium it mines does set it apart from the pack in some important ways. For starters, uranium is the fuel that powers nuclear power plants. So Cameco's fortunes are tightly tied to the nuclear power industry's ups and downs. Given the high-profile nature of nuclear plant disasters, that can be a very negative thing at times. And the bad times tend to linger until the fear over the risks of nuclear power disasters subsides. That said, nuclear power happens to produce energy without producing greenhouse gases. In other words, it is a source of clean energy. Nuclear power is also capable of running at full nameplate capacity on an ongoing basis, making it a great complement to intermittent power sources like solar and wind. Given the ongoing shift in the world toward cleaner power options, nuclear power is seeing something of a renaissance. (The fact that the last nuclear power plant meltdown happened in 2011, quite some time ago at this point, is also a big help.) Cameco tries hard to be reliable At the same time, Cameco can't avoid the fact that the price of the commodity it sells has a major impact on the way Wall Street views its business. With nuclear power seen as an increasingly important power source, uranium prices have benefited. And so, too, has Cameco's stock price. The tie between uranium prices and Cameco's stock price will likely never change, so a significant drop in uranium prices would lead to a big drop in Cameco's stock price, too. If you buy Cameco stock today you need to believe that the nuclear power industry is set to expand over the long term. And, thus, demand for uranium will remain strong over the long term and keep uranium prices high. If you don't go in with that belief you could be let down over the short term as commodity prices wax and wane, just like any other commodity, over shorter periods of time. CCJ data by YCharts However, there is something important about Cameco's business model that is worth highlighting. It doesn't sell uranium at the spot price, it signs long-term supply contracts. This helps to soften the blow from uranium price declines, though it can also limit the upside when uranium prices rise. And Cameco recently bought a non-controlling stake in Westinghouse, a service provider to the nuclear power industry. The revenues this business generates should be more consistent over time than uranium prices. In other words, Cameco is doing what it can to ensure its business is resilient to the typical ups and downs of a commodity business. Think carefully before buying Cameco The truth is, Cameco probably won't be a great fit for most investors. You can get indirect exposure to nuclear power via an investment in a reliable dividend-paying utility like Southern that will expose you to much less risk. However, if you think nuclear power is set to grow in the years ahead, Cameco is a solid "pick-and-shovel" play on the sector. Just go in knowing that volatility is the norm, with 50% price increases coming along with the risk of similar price drawdowns. Should you invest $1,000 in Cameco right now? Before you buy stock in Cameco, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Cameco wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $664,089!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $881,731!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor 's total average return is994% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to172%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025

Toronto Sun

33 minutes ago

• Toronto Sun

Prime Minister Mark Carney visits military cemetery in Brussels ahead of EU-Canada summit

Published Jun 23, 2025 • 3 minute read Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (R) and his wife Diana Fox Carney (2nd R) attend a wreath laying during a visit to the Schoonselhof cemetery, on the sidelines of an EU-Canada summit, in Antwerp, on June 23, 2025. Photo by JASPER JACOBS / AFP BRUSSELS — Prime Minister Mark Carney began official events for his four-day trip to Europe Monday by visiting a military cemetery in Belgium before a meeting with European counterparts at the EU-Canada summit. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account Carney said on social media Sunday he was in Brussels to launch 'a new era of partnership' between Canada and the European Union to benefit workers, businesses and security 'on both sides of the Atlantic.' Carney started the day with a visit to the Antwerp Schoonselhof Military Cemetery, where 348 Canadian soldiers are buried. Carney toured the cemetery alongside his wife, Diana Fox Carney, and Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever. Carney also took part in a wreath-laying ceremony with Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand and National Defence Minister David McGuinty. Stephane Dion, special envoy to the European Union and Europe, also attended. Carney is expected to meet later Monday with De Wever, European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. At the EU-Canada summit, Anand and McGuinty are expected to sign a security and defence agreement with the European bloc — an agreement one European official described last week as one of the most ambitious deals the continent's powers have ever signed with a third country. The security and defence agreement opens the door to joint purchases of weapons with European countries and participation in the ReArm Europe initiative — which will allow Canada to access a 150-billion-euro program for defence procurement called Security Action for Europe. Canada will need to sign a second agreement with the European Commission before it can take part in the program. A government official briefing reporters on the trip said the partnership is expected to make procurement easier and more affordable, while also allowing Canada to diversify its sources of equipment. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. At the EU-Canada summit, leaders are also expected to issue a joint statement pressing Russia to end its war on Ukraine through measures like further sanctions, and calling for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The joint statement is also expected to touch on climate change, trade and digital and tech policy. De Wever said Canada's partnership with the EU is critical now because 'we've woken up in a world that doesn't look that friendly anymore.' 'We're living in a world where we have an imperialist power in the east who uses military force, we have a peculiar figure in the White House who is choosing the road of protectionism and even isolationism. So those who like a rules-based world, a multilateral world, should find each other's company now,' the Belgian prime minister said. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. De Wever said allies will need to spend more on defence and should do so wisely by developing their industrial defence bases together. 'Those countries who still like multilateralism are the countries that have to look up each other's company and make good agreements,' he said. Carney posted on social media early Monday that he spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump overnight. He said the conversation addressed the need to de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East. Carney said he and Trump also spoke about trade and their shared commitment to a stronger NATO. Carney has called for a 'diplomatic solution' in the wake of U.S. strikes on three key nuclear facilities in Iran. In a statement Sunday, Carney called Iran's nuclear program a 'grave threat' to international security and said Canada has been 'consistently clear' that Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Speaking to reporters Monday, De Wever said he had no sympathy for the 'evil' Iranian regime and called the country a 'big sponsor of terrorism.' De Wever said that while there should be regime change in Iran, it would be preferable if it came through a democratic process and not one that 'starts with bombing.' Leaders at the EU-Canada summit are also expected to discuss global trade and commit to working toward ratifying and implementing the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, the Canada-Europe free trade deal known as CETA. The pact took effect provisionally in 2017, and most of its contents now apply. But all EU countries need to approve CETA before it can take full effect; 10 members still haven't ratified the deal. Carney, Costa and von der Leyen are scheduled to hold a joint press conference Monday evening. On Tuesday, Carney travels to The Hague for the NATO summit. The international meetings come as Canada looks to reduce its defence procurement reliance on the United States due to strained relations over tariffs and Trump's repeated talk about Canada becoming a U.S. state. Toronto & GTA Toronto Maple Leafs Sunshine Girls Sunshine Girls MLB

CTV News

34 minutes ago

• CTV News

Windsor city councillor submits resignation for new role

A member of the Windsor City Council has submitted his resignation as he is moving into a new role leading the area's community housing organization. Ward 2 councillor Fabio Costante submitted his resignation to the city clerk Sunday evening after being hired as the new chief executive officer of the Windsor Essex Community Housing Corporation. Costante's resignation from the council will be effective June 26 as he moves into his new role effective July 7. He says he is resigning from council because it won't be possible to do both jobs to the fullest extent, and it was something the CHC also requested. 'There's so much overlap between the two bodies,' says Costante. 'There are so many housing issues that come before the council that I'd have to declare a conflict on. There's just operational fuzziness that would create issues.' The next municipal election is scheduled for Monday, Oct. 26, 2026, which means city council will have to decide on how to fill the Ward 2 seat following Costante's resignation. Costante was first elected to city council in 2018, representing West Windsor, and then re-elected in 2022, and during that time served on many committees and boards, which included the Windsor Essex County Housing Corporation and as chair of the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit. He says he felt strongly that he could do more for the community in this new role as we're amid a housing crisis. 'I look at this as not stepping away; actually, I look at it differently,' says Costante. 'I look at it as diving deeper into community service and community service that is specifically focused on the biggest issue that we face unequivocally as a community today.' According to the Windsor Essex Community Housing Corporation's website, it is the largest social housing provider in Windsor and Essex County and the fifth largest in Ontario, offering over 4,900 homes to seniors, families, and singles in need of affordable housing. Costante says he's proud of several accomplishments during his time serving Ward 2, including the $20 million University Avenue road improvement project, ongoing investments and upgrades to the Adie Knox Arena complex, road reconstruction and streetscaping work in Sandwich Town, along with several bylaw and policy items he was involved with advocating for, including the vacant home tax and improvements to the dirty yards bylaws to crack down on negligent and absentee landlords. Costante says he can't thank the mayor and his fellow councillors enough for all the work they did together over the past six and a half years. 'I feel like I am and felt like I was part of the most amazing, hard-working community. Not just in our region but across the province. The west side-this is our cliché-the west side is the best side. It always was and always will be,' he says. According to a release issued Monday by the CHC, the hiring comes after a months-long recruitment and evaluation effort and the final candidates were independently assessed by Vokes Leadership Group, combined with input from the CHC board members, community partners, and oversight of external legal counsel, ensuring the appointment of the most qualified leader to guide CHC into its next chapter. Joyce Zuk, Executive Director of the Windsor-Essex Ontario Health Team and member of CHC's Selection Committee, says, 'the Selection Committee undertook a rigorous and thoughtful process to select the new CEO. We were fortunate to meet with an exceptional group of candidates, each bringing unique strengths. Fabio stood out as the clear choice-a leader whose vision, experience, and integrity make him exceptionally well-suited to guide CHC into its next chapter.' Joe Bachetti, chair of CHC's board of directors and deputy warden for the County of Essex, says, 'Mr. Costante's appointment comes at a pivotal time in CHC's history. CHC's Board of Directors is confident that under Mr. Costante's leadership, CHC will effectively tackle the hurdles posed by the national housing crisis, advancing CHC's mission with purpose and integrity.' Nolan Goyette has been serving as interim chief executive officer of CHC since June 2024. ~ By Rusty Thomson, AM800 News.