logo
Border conflict worry erases $83 billion from Indian equities in two days

Border conflict worry erases $83 billion from Indian equities in two days

Indian shares fell for a second straight session on Friday, losing about $83 billion in market value, as intensified military action between India and its neighbouring Pakistan rattled investors.
The Nifty 50 fell 1.1% on Friday but closed above the psychologically key 24,000-point mark, while the BSE Sensex also lost 1.1% but ended below the 80,000 level it held the previous day.
At its lowest, the market was set to lose $108 billion.
The indexes fell about 0.5% on Thursday and have lost about 1.3% this week, snapping a three-week winning run, their longest this year.
'With so much escalation, domestic markets are jittery because further retaliatory measures from Pakistan could lead to a prolonged, full-fledged conflict,' said Avinash Gorakshaka, head of research at Profitmart Securities.
'Fundamentals will take a back seat while sentiment influenced by updates from the conflict could derail market momentum at least for a week if the fighting continues.'
The volatility index, nicknamed the 'fear gauge', rose for an eighth straight session to hit a more-than-one-month high.
Indian shares set for muted start amid India-Pakistan tensions
Other asset classes also suffered, with the central bank forced to step in to stem the rupee's slide.
The stock market hit was broad. Twelve of the 13 major sectors declined this week, while the small-caps and mid-caps lost 1.9% and 0.8%, respectively.
The one bright spot was auto stocks, lifted by Tata Motors' 8.7% jump on hopes that the UK-US trade deal would boost the fortunes of its British unit JLR.
It was the top among the 11 Nifty 50 members that gained this week.
Analysts said hopes of a U.S.-India trade deal and the country's economic resilience would keep traders interested in the market.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Indian stocks set to slip after US attack on Iran's nuclear sites
Indian stocks set to slip after US attack on Iran's nuclear sites

Business Recorder

timean hour ago

  • Business Recorder

Indian stocks set to slip after US attack on Iran's nuclear sites

India's shares are set to open lower on Monday, in line with Asian peers, as investors anxiously wait to see if Iran retaliates after the U.S. attacked its key nuclear sites. The Gift Nifty futures were trading at 25,008, as of 7:51 a.m. IST, indicating that the Nifty 50 (.NSEI), opens new tab will open below the previous close of 25,112.4. The U.S. attacked key Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, joining Israel in the biggest Western military action against the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. Most Asian stocks were lower on the day, with MSCI Asia ex Japan down more than 1%, while the oil prices briefly hit a five-month high. Indian shares higher The concerns that Iran may shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil and gas flows, triggered fears of a supply disruption. Goldman Sachs flagged risks to global energy supply amid the concerns, and said it would lead to significant spikes in oil and natural gas prices. Higher crude oil prices do not bode well for India, which relies on imports for its energy requirement, as they may fuel inflation and raise the government's fiscal deficit. The surge in oil prices could also be detrimental to corporate earnings growth as they could raise input costs. India's benchmark indexes rose about 1.6% last week, driven by gains in financials.

Indian rupee under fire after US strikes on Iran jolt oil, stoke risk aversion
Indian rupee under fire after US strikes on Iran jolt oil, stoke risk aversion

Business Recorder

timean hour ago

  • Business Recorder

Indian rupee under fire after US strikes on Iran jolt oil, stoke risk aversion

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is set to open weaker on Monday, pressured by the rise in crude oil prices and risk-off sentiment following the U.S. military action against Iran. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the currency will open around 86.75-86.80 per dollar, compared to 86.5850 in the previous session. Oil prices jumped to their highest level since January after the U.S. joined Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, increasing concerns over the potential impact on energy supply. Tehran vowed to defend itself. The attack came just after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that such a decision would come 'within the next two weeks'. Fears that Iran may disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for about a fifth of world crude flows, lifted oil prices and weighed on risk assets. Indian rupee gains slightly Goldman Sachs warned that if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a key chokepoint for crude shipments — were halved for a month and remained down by 10% for the following 11 months, Brent could temporarily spike to $110. Brent crude hit a high of $81.40, before retracing a part of its rally. The rupee, which had caught a bit of a breather on Friday, unfortunately has to contend with the U.S.-Iran news, a currency trader at a bank said, 'and we're back to watching if 87 breaks'. An FX trader at another bank noted that the rise in oil prices was milder than expected, and attention now shifts to how Iran chooses to respond. 'While Iran may feel it needs to retaliate to US strikes, blocking the Hormuz might be a step too far,' ING Bank said in a note, and said that the price action in Asian trading suggests markets do not yet believe crude flows through Hormuz will be blocked.

Geopolitical tensions, economic jitters rattle PSX
Geopolitical tensions, economic jitters rattle PSX

Business Recorder

time4 hours ago

  • Business Recorder

Geopolitical tensions, economic jitters rattle PSX

KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) endured a turbulent week as a combination of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, volatile international commodity prices, and mixed domestic economic indicators rattled investor sentiment. During the week, the benchmark KSE-100 Index remained in sharp retreat from its recent highs. The KSE-100 Index dropped by a significant 3.5 percent or 4,330 points from its recent peak of 124,352 points registered last week. However, on a week-on-week basis, the benchmark settled at 120,023.23 points, reflecting a 1.7 percent decline compared to the previous week's close at 122,143.57 points. Market capitalization in rupee terms fell by 1.4 percent to Rs 14.536 trillion from Rs 14.747 trillion, while in dollar terms it also dropped by 1.7 percent amid sustained selling pressure and falling participation. Average daily trading volumes also contracted notably, down 9.4 percent to 822 million shares from 906 million shares previous week. The value of traded shares also saw a sharper decline, with average daily turnover plunging 40.2 percent to Rs 22.22 billion from 37.16 billion. The BRIndex100 and BRIndex30 also ended in the red amid continued investor caution. The BRIndex100 lost 104.2 points to settle at 12,933.06 points by the week's close with an average volume of 597.31 million shares traded daily. While BRindex30 also lost 643 points on a week on week basis ending at 37,083.96 points. The average traded volume remains 378.602 million shares daily. Internationally, geopolitical uncertainty particularly surrounding Middle Eastern tensions triggered a spike in commodity prices. Brent crude surged to US$77 per barrel, marking a five-month high, driven by fears of supply disruptions. The surge in oil prices added to the inflationary concerns of oil-importing nations like Pakistan, clouding the outlook for external accounts and monetary policy. On the monetary side, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained its benchmark policy rate at 11 percent during the Monetary Policy Committee meeting earlier this week, in line with market expectations. The central bank's cautious stance comes amid rising oil prices and delicate external balances. In a positive development, the SBP's foreign exchange reserves rose by US$46 million during the week, ending at US$ 11.7 billion as of June 6th. However, on the currency front, the Pakistani Rupee depreciated by 0.26 percent week-on-week, closing at Rs 283.7 per US dollar. On the macroeconomic front, the country's current account posted a US$103 million deficit in May 2025. However, cumulative figures for 11MFY25 remained in surplus at US$1.8 billion, a relatively comfortable position given the pressures in the external sector. However, Exports during May registered a worrying 19 percent year-on-year decline, while imports rose by 9 percent YoY basis, further straining the trade balance. In efforts to bolster external financing, Pakistan successfully secured a US$ 1 billion syndicated loan from a foreign commercial bank during the week. Additionally, discussions remain underway for a crucial US$ 1.3 billion refinancing package from Chinese banks, expected to materialize by the end of June 2025. In another positive development on the privatization front, The Privatization Commission confirmed receipt of five Expressions of Interest (EOIs) for the acquisition of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), signalling tangible progress in the long-delayed process to offload the loss-making national carrier. Meanwhile, the government successfully raised Rs 557 billion through a Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIB) auction against a target of Rs 300 billion. Notably, yields on the bonds fell between 29 basis points and 64 basis points across different tenors compared to previous auctions, reflecting an easing interest rate outlook and improved investor confidence in government securities. The country's industrial sector showed encouraging signs of recovery as the Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) index posted a healthy growth of 2.39 percent year-on-year in May 2025, reflecting a modest but consistent improvement in factory output across key industries. Meanwhile, the country's technology sector continued its upward trajectory, with IT exports rising sharply to US$ 3.5 billion during the first eleven months of FY2025, marking an impressive 19 percent increase compared to the same period last year. In the agriculture and fertilizer segment, domestic sales of essential nutrients picked up pace, as Urea sales recorded a 5 percent year-on-year increase, while DAP sales surged by a substantial 135 percent during May 2025, indicating robust seasonal demand ahead of the Kharif crop sowing season. Adding to the week's policy developments, the government finally unveiled the much-anticipated National Electric Vehicle (EV) Policy for 2025-30, aiming to promote eco-friendly transportation, reduce reliance on imported fuels, and encourage investment in the domestic EV manufacturing ecosystem. Among key PSX sectors, Banks, Textiles, and Oil & Gas Marketing Companies (OGMCs) managed marginal gains, while most other major segments particularly Cement, Autos, Engineering, and Power closed the week in negative territory. On the stock performance front, Bannu Woollen Mills Limited (BNWM) emerged as the week's top gainer, surging 18.3 percent. It was followed by Yousaf Weaving Mills Limited (YOUW), and Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans Limited (PABC). Conversely, Pakgen Power Limited (PKGP) led the laggards, plunging by a staggering 41 percent, trailing Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited and Kohinoor Textile Mills Limited (KTML). Analysts cited that the market is likely to remain cautious in the near term as investors digest the implications of international oil price movements, geopolitical risks, and upcoming macroeconomic indicators, including inflation data and fiscal performance in the final month of FY25. Progress on external financing arrangements and privatization deals, especially PIA's Privatization are expected to provide directional cues. AKD Securities anticipates that short-term market performance will remain tied to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. However, in the medium term, the outlook remains optimistic, with the KSE-100 expected to resume its upward trajectory. This positive projection is underpinned by anticipated earnings growth in fertilizers, steady returns in banks, and improved cash flows for E&P and OMC sectors. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store