Insight: Islamic State reactivating fighters, eying comeback in Syria and Iraq
DAMASCUS, June 12 (Reuters) - Middle East leaders and their Western allies have been warning that Islamic State could exploit the fall of the Assad regime to stage a comeback in Syria and neighbouring Iraq, where the extremist group once imposed a reign of terror over millions.
Islamic State (IS) has been attempting just that, according to more than 20 sources, including security and political officials from Syria, Iraq, the U.S. and Europe, as well as diplomats in the region. The group has started reactivating fighters in both countries, identifying targets, distributing weapons and stepping up recruitment and propaganda efforts, the sources said.
So far, the results of these efforts appear limited. Security operatives in Syria and Iraq, who have been monitoring IS for years, told Reuters they foiled at least a dozen major plots this year.
A case in point came in December, the month Syria's Bashar Assad was toppled.
As rebels were advancing on Damascus, IS commanders holed up near Raqqa, former capital of their self-declared caliphate, dispatched two envoys to Iraq, five Iraqi counter-terrorism officials told Reuters. The envoys carried verbal instructions to the group's followers to launch attacks. But they were captured at a checkpoint while travelling in northern Iraq on December 2, the officials said.
Eleven days later, Iraqi security forces, acting on information from the envoys, tracked a suspected IS suicide bomber to a crowded restaurant in the northern town of Daquq using his cell phone, they said. The forces shot the man dead before he could detonate an explosives belt, they said.
The foiled attack confirmed Iraq's suspicions about the group, said Colonel Abdul Ameer al-Bayati, of the Iraqi Army's 8th Division, which is deployed in the area. 'Islamic State elements have begun to reactivate after years of lying low, emboldened by the chaos in Syria,' he said.
Still, the number of attacks claimed by IS has dropped since Assad's fall.
IS claimed responsibility for 38 attacks in Syria in the first five months of 2025, putting it on track for a little over 90 claims this year, according to data from SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors militants' activities online. That would be around a third of last year's claims, the data shows.
In Iraq, where IS originated, the group claimed four attacks in the first five months of 2025, versus 61 total last year.
Syria's government, led by the country's new Islamist leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, did not answer questions about IS activities. Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra told Reuters in January the country was developing its intelligence-gathering efforts, and its security services would address any threat.
A U.S. defence official and a spokesperson for Iraq's prime minister said IS remnants in Syria and Iraq have been dramatically weakened, unable to control territory since a U.S.-led coalition and its local partners drove them from their last stronghold in 2019.
The Iraqi spokesperson, Sabah al-Numan, credited pre-emptive operations for keeping the group in check.
The coalition and partners hammered militant hideouts with airstrikes and raids after Assad's fall. Such operations captured or killed 'terrorist elements,' while preventing them from regrouping and carrying out operations, Numan said.
Iraq's intelligence operations have also become more precise, through drones and other technology, he added.
At its peak between 2014 and 2017, IS held sway over roughly a third of Syria and Iraq, where it imposed its extreme interpretation of Islamic sharia law, gaining a reputation for shocking brutality.
None of the officials who spoke with Reuters saw a danger of that happening again. But they cautioned against counting the group out, saying it has proven a resilient foe, adept at exploiting a vacuum.
Some local and European officials are concerned that foreign fighters might be travelling to Syria to join jihadi groups. For the first time in years, intelligence agencies tracked a small number of suspected foreign fighters coming from Europe to Syria in recent months, two European officials told Reuters, though they could not say whether IS or another group recruited them.
The IS push comes at a delicate time for Sharaa, as he attempts to unite a diverse country and bring former rebel groups under government control after 13 years of civil war.
U.S. President Donald Trump's surprise decision last month to lift sanctions on Syria was widely seen as a win for the Syrian leader, who once led a branch of al Qaeda that battled IS for years. But some Islamist hardliners criticised Sharaa's efforts to woo Western governments, expressing concern he might acquiesce to U.S. demands to expel foreign fighters and normalise relations with Israel.
Seizing on such divides, IS condemned the meeting with Trump in a recent issue of its online news publication, al-Naba, and called on foreign fighters in Syria to join its ranks.
At a May 14 meeting in Saudi Arabia, Trump asked Sharaa to help prevent an IS resurgence as the U.S. begins a troop consolidation in Syria it says could cut its roughly 2,000-strong military presence by half this year.
The U.S. drawdown has heightened concern among allies that IS might find a way to free some 9,000 fighters and their family members, including foreign nationals, held at prisons and camps guarded by the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). There have been at least two attempted jailbreaks since Assad's fall, the SDF has said.
Trump and President Tayyip Erdogan of neighbouring Turkey want Sharaa's government to assume responsibility for these facilities. Erdogan views the main Kurdish factions as a threat to his country. But some regional analysts question whether Damascus has the manpower needed.
Syrian authorities have also been grappling with attacks by suspected Assad loyalists, outbreaks of deadly sectarian violence, Israeli airstrikes and clashes between Turkish-backed groups and the SDF, which controls about a quarter of the country.
'The interim government is stretched thin from a security perspective. They just do not have the manpower to consolidate control in the entire country,' said Charles Lister, who heads the Syria program at the Middle East Institute, a U.S. think tank.
Responding to a request for comment, a State Department spokesperson said it is critical for countries to repatriate detained nationals from Syria and shoulder a greater share of the burden for the camps' security and running costs.
The U.S. defence official said Washington remains committed to preventing an IS resurgence, and its vetted Syrian partners remain in the field. The U.S. will 'vigilantly monitor' Sharaa's government, which has been 'saying and doing the right things' so far, the official added.
Three days after Trump's meeting with Sharaa, Syria announced it had raided IS hideouts in the country's second city, Aleppo, killing three militants, detaining four and seizing weapons and uniforms.
The U.S. has exchanged intelligence with Damascus in limited cases, another U.S. defence official and two Syrian officials told Reuters. The news agency could not determine whether it did so in the Aleppo raids.
The coalition is expected to wrap up operations in Iraq by September. But the second U.S. official said Baghdad privately expressed interest in slowing down the withdrawal of some 2,500 American troops from Iraq when it became apparent that Assad would fall. A source familiar with the matter confirmed the request.
The White House, Baghdad and Damascus did not respond to questions about Trump's plans for U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria.
The United Nations estimates IS, also known as ISIS or Daesh, has 1,500 to 3,000 fighters in the two countries. But its most active branches are in Africa, the SITE data shows.
The U.S. military believes the group's secretive leader is Abdulqadir Mumin, who heads the Somalia branch, a senior defence official told reporters in April.
Still, SITE's director, Rita Katz, cautioned against seeing the drop in IS attacks in Syria as a sign of weakness. 'Far more likely that it has entered a restrategising phase,' she said.
Since Assad's fall, IS has been activating sleeper cells, surveilling potential targets and distributing guns, silencers and explosives, three security sources and three Syrian political officials told Reuters.
It has also moved fighters from the Syrian desert, a focus of coalition airstrikes, to cities including Aleppo, Homs and Damascus, according to the security sources.
"Of the challenges we face, Daesh is at the top of the list," Syrian Interior Minister Anas Khattab told state-owned Ekhbariya TV last week.
In Iraq, aerial surveillance and intelligence sources on the ground have picked up increased IS activity in the northern Hamrin Mountains, a longtime refuge, and along key roads, Ali al-Saidi, an advisor to Iraqi security forces, told Reuters.
Iraqi officials believe IS seized large stockpiles of weapons left behind by Assad's forces and worry some could be smuggled into Iraq.
Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said Baghdad was in contact with Damascus about IS, which he told Reuters in January was growing and spreading into more areas.
"We hope that Syria, in the first place, will be stable, and Syria will not be a place for terrorists," he said, 'especially ISIS terrorists."
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
BBC News
29 minutes ago
- BBC News
Suicide bombing at Damascus church kills 20, authorities say
At least 20 people have been killed and 52 others wounded in a suicide bombing at a church on the outskirts of Damascus, Syria's interior ministry has said. The attacker entered Mar Elias Church in Dweila during a service and opened fire with a weapon before detonating an explosive vest, the ministry said in a statement. It added that he was affiliated with the jihadist group Islamic State (IS). There was no immediate claim from the group Syrian Civil Defence - whose emergency teams are widely known as the White Helmets - posted photos and video from inside the church showing a heavily damaged altar, pews covered in broken glass and a bloodied floor. One person told AFP news agency outside Mar Elias that "someone entered carrying a weapon" and began shooting. "[People] tried to stop him before he blew himself up," he added.A worker at a nearby shop said: "We saw fire in the church and the remains of wooden benches thrown all the way to the entrance."Security forces have condoned off the area around the church and are investigating the attack, according to the interior was the first such attack in Damascus since Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by rebel forces in President Ahmed al-Sharaa - whose Sunni Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is a former al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria - has repeatedly promised to protect religious and ethnic the country has been rocked by two waves of deadly sectarian violence in recent months.
The Independent
an hour ago
- The Independent
At least 13 killed after suicide bomb attack on busy church in Syria
A suicide bomber attacked the Mar Elias Church in Dweil'a, near Damascus, Syria, on Sunday. Syrian state media reported at least 13 people were killed and 53 wounded, while a war monitor cited at least 19 fatalities and dozens injured, with children reportedly among the victims. The Syrian Interior Ministry stated an Islamic State extremist fired at worshippers before detonating an explosives vest inside the Church, an account supported by some witnesses. This marks the first such attack in Syria in years, raising concerns about extremist sleeper cells as Damascus seeks to gain support from minority groups. Syrian Information Minister Hamza Mostafa condemned the incident as a terrorist act, while Church officials and witnesses provided further details on the attack's progression.
The Independent
an hour ago
- The Independent
Suicide bomber kills at least 13 in packed Syrian church near Damascus
A suicide bomber in Syria on Sunday detonated himself inside a church filled with people, killing at least 13, Syrian state media reported. The explosion in Dweil'a in the outskirts of Damascus took place as people were praying inside the Mar Elias Church. SANA, citing the Health Ministry said that at least 53 others were wounded. Britain -based war monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said there were at least 19 peopled killed and dozens of others wounded, but did not give exact numbers. Some local media reported that children were among the casualties. The attack was the first of its kind in Syria in years, and comes as Damascus under its de facto Islamist rule is trying to win the support of minorities. As President Ahmad al-Sharaa struggles to exert authority across the country, there have been concerns about the presence of sleeper cells of extremist groups in the war-torn country. No group immediately claimed responsibility Sunday, but the Syrian Interior Ministry said an extremist from the Islamic State group entered the church, fired at the people there before detonating himself with an explosives vest, echoing some witness testimonies. Syrian Information Minister Hamza Mostafa condemned the attack, calling it a terrorist attack. 'This cowardly act goes against the civic values that brings us together,' he said in a post on X, formerly Twitter. 'We will to back down from our commitment to equal citizenship … and we also affirm the state's pledge to exert all its efforts to combat criminal organizations and to protect society from all attacks threatening its safety.' Church Bishop Moussa Khoury said the attacker also threw a grenade into the church during the afternoon Mass. 'He started shooting, went and then he blew up the church,' he told the AP. A witness who identified himself as Rawad told The Associated Press he saw the attacker who was accompanied by two others who fled as he was driving near the church. 'He was shooting at the church … he then went inside the church and blew himself up,' he said. However, Meletius Shahati, a church priest, said there was a second gunman who shot at the church door before the other person detonated himself. Security forces and first-responders rushed to the church. Panicked survivors wailed, as one lady fell to her knees and burst into tears. A photo circulated by Syrian state media SANA showed the church's pews covered in debris and blood.
