Friends, finance or flag prospects? Inside Tom De Koning's life-changing decision
The value and prestige of being a one-club player at Carlton, not to mention being part of a drought-busting 17th premiership team, would be another consideration, though featuring in what would be a fabled and historic second flag for the success-starved Saints would also be an attractive proposition.
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On-field roles
Despite possessing a spring-heeled leap and being an excellent contested mark, De Koning is an out-and-out ruckman, not a forward.
In 90 games across seven seasons, De Koning has kicked three goals or more just once. His shot at goal accuracy of 38.2 per cent places him 19th at the Blues of their 20 most prolific shots at goal since 2018.
He has played almost exclusively in the ruck this year. There have not been any stints resting as a forward. In fact, he has been targeted inside Carlton's forward 50 metres just 10 times in 12 games.
With Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay as the focal points, the Blues have less need for him. Nobody expects Rowan Marshall to remain at Moorabbin if De Koning signs, so he would likely be the clear No.1 ruck in the red, white and black. But the cloud hanging over Max King and their lack of proven key forwards will raise the temptation for the Saints to throw him forward.
Club environment and lifestyle
One of the early players drafted in the Blues' scorched-earth rebuild, De Koning is extremely popular among teammates. He is one of those players who is mates with everyone.
His closest friends are Charlie Curnow, who, like De Koning, was recruited early in the Blues' painstaking rebuild, former Dandenong under-18s teammate Matt Cottrell and Adam Cerra. He surfs with skipper Patrick Cripps.
Despite the Blues' troubles this year and the uncertainty over his future, he remains invested in the club, as seen by his stellar form that has him contending for his first Blues' best and fairest award.
News that he sought a meeting with incoming chief Graham Wright in Brian Cook's office to discuss potential changes at the club has raised hopes at Ikon Park that he will choose friends over finance.
A move to Moorabbin, away from the inner suburbs, would allow the Bayside boy to live closer to the where he grew up and be a shorter drive for a surf on the beaches of Mornington Peninsula, though many of his nine siblings now live on the other side of the bay on the Surf Coast.
That he is yet to make a call on his future despite the size of the Saints' offer shows how tough it would be for him to leave.
Who is closer to a flag?
The general view of the list managers and recruiters contacted is that the Saints have better kids, and the Blues have stronger mature talent.
One recruiter said both were equally doomed, which does not bode well for De Koning's hopes for success.
Since 2021, the Saints have secured five top-20 picks to the Blues' two. Of the Blues' under-23s, half-back Ollie Hollands is the furthest advanced but is not an elite kick, and Jagga Smith has the highest ceiling but is yet to make his debut due to injury.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is already a star at St Kilda, Mitch Owens and Marcus Windhager have become senior regulars though have limitations, and it's far too early to draw conclusions on first-round picks Mattaes Phillipou, Darcy Wilson, Tobie Travaglia and Alix Tauru. The sources said if the Saints were to lose Wanganeen-Milera on top of Max King's continued unavailability with knee injuries would dramatically alter how St Kilda's list is viewed and how it would be compared to Carlton's.
Can he handle being the face of the club?
If De Koning leaves, he will be seen as the Saints' great hope. His signature would indicate to other recruiting targets that Moorabbin is a place to be.
The expectations that come with being the highest-paid player at the club would, as one list manager put it, have his every step on the field be analysed on every talk show.
At Carlton, he would be one of several big names, shielded to an extent from saturation coverage by marquee stars Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh.
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