Missing from India's population narrative: Unmet family goals, financial barriers, coercion

India's population estimates often provoke extreme reactions: frustration over overpopulation or alarm over the signs of a falling fertility rate. However, such narratives fail to capture a nuanced picture—one that centres around what couples go through in their fertility journey.
A recent report by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)—State of World Population—finds that Indians are now having fewer children than needed to offset deaths. A parallel crisis is also playing out with many couples struggling to meet their fertility goals, having either more or fewer children than planned, facing several barriers and struggling with coercion.
Shrinking fertility
India's total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.9 in 2025, according to estimates from the report. This figure has been below the replacement level of 2.1 since 2020. In practical terms, this means that Indian women, on average, are now having fewer children than needed to prevent the population from shrinking over time, without accounting for migration.
'This decline is driven by a combination of factors, including rising education levels, increasing urbanization, delayed marriage, improved access to contraception, and evolving social and economic aspirations," said Andrea Wojnar, the UNFPA's India representative. The latest Sample Registration System data showed a fertility rate of 2 in 2021.Declining fertility rates have become a cause of concern, especially in developed nations, as their populations are growing older and economies are slowing. Such concerns are taking hold in India as well, despite it being home to the largest population in the world.
Unfulfilled aspirations
For many years, India has chosen a policy of population control through greater awareness about family planning and making contraceptives available to people, among other measures. However, beyond these policies, several complexities faced by couples may also be contributing to the current trend. Over 30% of Indians experienced unintended pregnancies, and a similar share also went through a time when they wanted a child but couldn't have one, showed the report by the UNFPA, which conducted a survey with polling agency YouGov. About one in four Indians encountered both scenarios.
These findings highlight a widespread prevalence of having either more or fewer children than planned or desired, both with detrimental consequences. Unintended pregnancies can lead to financial strain from unexpected childcare costs and potential health risks for mothers and children. Conversely, having fewer children than desired can lead to heightened psychological stress.
Barriers to parenthood
But what are the barriers preventing Indian couples from achieving their desired family size? Financial constraint is the number one reason, with nearly 40% citing it as a major hurdle, as per the report. Housing issues (22%), job insecurity (21%), and one partner desiring fewer children (19%) are also significant factors in family expansion goals. Many are also holding back due to growing anxiety about the future, from climate change to political and social instability.
For many, insufficient involvement of the other partner in housework and childcare holds them back from expanding the family, the report showed. Notably, Indians face a disproportionately higher share of barriers compared to the global average for 10 out of 14 tracked factors. The gap is particularly wide for concerns like climate change, inadequate pregnancy-related healthcare, and pressure from the medical fraternity regarding family planning decisions, underscoring unique challenges in India.
Limited agency
The discourse around exercising reproductive agency has been largely focused on women since they are more directly affected by childbirth. However, the report showed that both men and women in India report significant constraints on their reproductive rights. Nearly the same share of respondents (about 61%) in both genders reported experiencing some form of coercion during a reproductive relationship in India. More men (30%) than women (26%) reported pressure to have a child when they did not want one. More men also reported feeling pressured to use contraception when they desired a child.
Alarmingly, 33% of women and 34% of men reported feeling unable to refuse sexual intercourse, highlighting widespread sexual coercion. This is broadly in line with the global trend, with 60% of men and 70% of women reporting some form of limitation of their reproductive rights. 'This finding, among both women and men, should be a call to action for all policymakers and advocates, a clear indication that sexual coercion is unacceptably commonplace for both men and women," the report noted.
Positive trajectory
India's declining fertility rate is closing the window for the demographic dividend. However, this may have come on the back of a positive development that prioritized women's education, financial independence, and health through delayed childbearing. Births per 1,000 women for those aged 15-19 years came down dramatically—and at a faster pace than the global trend—in the 21st century.
The UNFPA report also highlighted that the recent declines in total fertility rates to low and very low levels, as evidenced in some countries, were intricately linked to rapid reductions in birth rates among adolescents and young women (aged 15-24 years), caused by a postponement of childbearing.
According to Wojnar, this shift reflects meaningful progress toward greater reproductive autonomy and healthier life choices for young people. 'India's fertility story is not one story, but many. And the answer lies not in prescribing outcomes, but in ensuring an enabling environment where everyone has the ability and support to realise their own reproductive goals safely, freely, and with dignity," Wojnar added.

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