Playbook: Mission accomplished?

Presented by
With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
On the Playbook Podcast this morning, Jack and POLITICO White House reporter Megan Messerly discuss all the fallout from Saturday's attack on Iran — and the great political unknowns as we head into the week.
Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, braced for some scorching D.C. summer heat this week. The National Weather Service has issued an extreme heat warning for today between 11 a.m. and 9 p.m., and is advising residents to limit their time outdoors. The Capital Weather Gang reckons temps will likely hit three figures and may feel as hot as 110 degrees once the 'oppressive humidity' is factored in. It'll be like this through Wednesday, at least. Suffice to say your Playbook author has canceled his kid's birthday trip to the zoo and will be cowering indoors instead.
In today's Playbook …
— The three big questions troubling the White House on Iran.
— Crunch time in the Senate for Trump's big, beautiful bill.
— Trump world power couple spotted on a seaside break.
DRIVING THE DAY
QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS: President Donald Trump will gather his national security team in the Oval Office at 1 p.m. as huge questions loom about the weekend bombing raids on Iran. Just how successful was Saturday night's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities? How — if at all — will Iran respond? And what's the real end-game here? The answers could shape U.S. politics for a long time to come. Let's get into it.
First, the success of the attacks: To be clear — those raids were a remarkable feat. Seven vast, space-age style aircraft, each 170 feet wide, flew 7,000 miles nonstop from their airbase near Kansas City to targets in central Iran, undetected by enemy radar. They refueled mid-air, multiple times. They each dropped their 15-ton bombs with extraordinary precision. And then they flew straight home again, only touching back down in Missouri on Sunday afternoon. (Watch the vid here of their return.)
OK wait, I have questions: Yes, B-2 bombers have toilets on board. Yes, their crews take turns to cook microwave meals, and eat, and nap. (This Defense News interview with B-2 bomber pilots from 2019 answers a lot of questions about what it's actually like on board ... and The Atlantic did a great profile of a long-range B-2 bombing raid back in 2018.)
But the only question that matters … is how much damage America's much-feted 'bunker-buster' bombs actually did to Iran's fortified nuclear site at Fordo this past weekend. These weapons previously were untested in combat, and the sheer depth at which Iran buried its facility — beneath an awful lot of concrete, as well as the side of the mountain — means it's very hard to know how effective they were. Certainly, the pictures from the sky are inconclusive. And Iran is hardly likely to allow inspectors back in any time soon.
Official view from the White House: 'Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!' Trump insisted on Truth Social last night. That may or may not prove to be the case.
But there's more: Bombing Fordo — and the other big sites that got hammered on Saturday night — was only ever one piece in the jigsaw. As the NYT writes this morning, everyone is suddenly awfully keen to know the whereabouts of Iran's hefty stockpile of enriched uranium — not yet at weapons-grade, but headed in that direction. The NYT says the entire stockpile would fit into the trunks of about 10 cars, and it's thought highly likely Iran moved it to a safer place in the days running up the attack. And there are questions too about a possible third Iranian enrichment facility, confirmed by the regime but not yet revealed in public. Has that been targeted as well?
Next — Iran's response: So far, Iran sounds extremely upset. At an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council last night, Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran's permanent representative to the U.N., said the attacks were a 'blatant crime' and that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu had 'succeeded in hijacking U.S. foreign policy, dragging the United States into yet another costly, baseless war.' Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is in Moscow today for crisis talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin — though Russia has shown little sign of wanting to get involved.
But what about actions? Iran has talked tough for years about its response if its nuclear program were ever targeted. But it's proven far weaker militarily than expected — partly due to the massive degradation of its regional proxies like Hamad and Hezbollah over the past two years; and partly due to the devastating Israeli attacks on its capabilities these past 10 days. But there are still 40,000 U.S. troops based in the region, and some sort of Iranian attack in the coming days is certainly possible.
And beyond the region … NBC reports Iran warned the U.S. last week that in the event of an attack, it would activate sleeper cells who would carry out terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. Hard-liners in Iran's parliament are calling for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed, which would damage shipping interest globally and likely cause a spike in oil prices too.
Helpful analysis: Indeed, the WSJ runs through all of Iran's options — and frankly, none of them are good. The regime has been hammered by Israel and can hardly now afford an escalating conflict with the U.S. Equally, it will look ruinously weak if there is no response at all. And this is a regime that first and foremost must protect its own position. Some observers believe it will quietly go full tilt for a nuclear bomb — the only real guarantor of security in Iranian eyes.
Which takes us to the third point: American war aims. Trump's three amigos from his Saturday night address — VP JD Vance, Secretary of State (and NSA) Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — were all carefully on-message on the Sunday shows, making clear this attack was not about regime change. The line held for all of about four hours … before the president started posting on social media.
Shades of 2003: 'It's not politically correct to use the term, 'Regime Change,' but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!' Trump wrote on Truth Social yesterday, and there's nothing that makes MAGA world millennials queasier than statements like that. Just look at the ever-faithful Charlie Kirk trying desperately to thread the needle here. Will Trump lean in or walk it back?
Talks continue: America's allies around the world still believe there's an urgent need for diplomacy, despite the president having shown precious little interest in multilateral talks thus far. A U.K. government official tells my London Playbook colleague Stefan Boscia that in reality, the U.S. 'won't stop [Iran] fully getting a nuke by bombing — that's why diplomacy now is important.' Good luck, as they say, with that.
Speaking of diplomacy: With impeccable timing, Trump is due to fly to Europe tomorrow for the annual NATO leaders' summit, which is being held this year in the Netherlands. Some in Europe fear he won't actually show, given the Iran crisis and his early exit from the G7 last week. But this entire summit has been designed as an opportunity for Trump to celebrate getting Europe to pledge more money on defense spending, and it seems unlikely he'll pass up the opportunity to take a big international win. The Middle East will obviously now be a key part of the discussion.
Less of an international win: With even more perfect timing, Pakistan, which on Friday nominated Trump for the thing he covets more than anything else — a Nobel peace prize — yesterday condemned him for aggressively bombing another country. The world sure moves fast.
ON THE HILL
RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: The Senate returns today to a make-or-break week for their reconciliation megabill, with Majority Leader John Thune hoping to begin procedural floor votes by mid-week. Our Inside Congress colleagues report that Thursday is most likely. First up today are the big 'Byrd bath' arguments for the Senate Finance Committee's centerpiece portion of the legislation, in which both parties will try to convince the parliamentarian to advise that certain provisions can or can't be included under the rules. Senate Republicans are also planning to gather this evening, per Punchbowl's Andrew Desiderio.
All eyes on Elizabeth MacDonough: The next couple of days are pivotal for the parliamentarian's rulings on what passes muster for Republicans to avoid the filibuster. She already made a number of notable calls in both directions this weekend, most significantly saying no to a SNAP cuts plan that would have shifted more costs for food aid to state governments. WSJ's Siobhan Hughes has all the deets.
First in Playbook: Majority Forward, which is affiliated with Democrats' Senate Majority PAC, is going up today with a $1 million ad campaign against Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) on reconciliation. Airing on YouTube/digital and streaming TV, the spots accuse the senators of raising health care costs to fund tax cuts for billionaires. The North Carolina ad
The impact: There's another reconciliation battle underway over the state and local tax deduction, separate from the one you've read about ad nauseam. Republicans plan to significantly limit a workaround that allows business owners to circumvent the SALT cap, WSJ's Richard Rubin reports. Meanwhile, the bill's new restrictions on SNAP — along with related Trump administration cuts — have New York-area food banks worried about their future, NYT's Sarah Maslin Nir reports.
ELSEWHERE ON THE HILL: The House is starting to move on its fiscal year 2026 appropriations process, with the Legislative Branch bill revealed last night and heading for a subcommittee markup at 6 p.m. It calls for a $51 million funding reduction overall, per POLITICO's Katherine Tully-McManus. That notably includes major cuts for the Government Accountability Office and Library of Congress, nonpartisan institutions that have come under increasing attack by Republicans.
Also happening today in the House: The full Appropriations Committee will mark up the Agriculture-FDA bill at 7:30 p.m., and at 4 p.m. the Rules Committee will take up the Military Construction-VA funding bill. Rules will also tee up a floor vote on a resolution condemning what it calls violent 'riots' in LA. And AG Pam Bondi will go before an Appropriations subcommittee at 2 p.m.
NEWS FROM THE WILDERNESS
NEW DIRECTIONS: Democratic politicians and voters will have fresh opportunities this week to set their party's course amid deep generational and ideological divides. First, four House members will pitch the Steering Committee today on why they should be House Oversight ranking member. That committee will recommend a pick for caucus ratification tomorrow. And it'll be a big decision among two senior Dems — Stephen Lynch (Mass.) and Kweisi Mfume (Md.) — and two younger, very online voices — Robert Garcia (Calif.) and Jasmine Crockett (Texas).
Bite at the Big Apple: Also happening tomorrow is the closely watched NYC mayoral primary, where frontrunners Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani represent radically different options for the party on ideology, experience, age and attitude — not to mention scandal. A new campaign finance data analysis from POLITICO's Cris Seda Chabrier and Joe Anuta shows there are thousands of donors, especially in Brooklyn, who seem to have gotten on board with the anybody-but-Cuomo-and-Eric-Adams strategy, giving money to a number of left-leaning contenders. (NYT's Nicholas Fandos has a fun rundown of how Ilana Glazer, Graydon Carter, Fran Lebowitz and other boldface names are ranking their ballots.)
And coming down the pike: Former VP Kamala Harris is now 'leaning toward' running for governor of California, The Hill's Amie Parnes reports. But she'll still take more time to decide, and one source rejects the idea that Harris is inclined to go for Sacramento. … Two years later, the 2028 presidential primary could get a little awkward in Illinois if native sons Rahm Emanuel and Gov. JB Pritzker both run, NBC's Natasha Korecki reports.
BEST OF THE REST
BILL OF HEALTH: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is slated to hold a news conference at 2:45 p.m. about what's being billed as 'a breakthrough in health insurance that will improve access to care for millions.' … On the flip side, after Kennedy dismissed the entire CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, some experts are working on outside groups to serve as alternatives still providing independent vaccine info, NBC's Erika Edwards reports.
PRIMARY COLORS: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is already feeling the heat for his opposition to the reconciliation bill and his constitutional criticism of Trump's Iran strikes. His reward for not toeing the party line is 'an aggressive effort' by Trump's political team to primary him, Axios' Alex Isenstadt scooped. Tony Fabrizio and Chris LaCivita are leading a new 'Kentucky MAGA' super PAC, meeting with potential opponents and planning to spend big. '@realDonaldTrump declared so much War on me today it should require an Act of Congress,' Massie cheekily retorted on X to Trump's latest Truth Social takedown.
IMMIGRATION FILES: A federal judge said she'll order the release of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the mistakenly deported man who's been returned to the U.S., per the AP. It was a significant rebuke for the Trump administration, which will appeal — and a Pyrrhic victory for Abrego, who would be expected to get detained and potentially deported by ICE if released on his immigrant smuggling charges. The judge said the government had failed to prove Abrego had abused minors, was a danger to the community or posed a flight risk. 'And she repeatedly described the evidence presented by prosecutors as strained, unreliable and contradictory,' POLITICO's Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report.
MAHMOUD KHALIL SPEAKS: In his first interview since being released, the activist and permanent resident told NYT's Jonah Bromwich that his detention had stripped him of his rights: 'It felt like kidnapping.' And he argued that the administration's high-profile efforts to deport him had 'actually advanced the [pro-Palestinian] movement 20 years.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
SPOTTED: Stephen and Katie Miller on Sea Island, Georgia, this weekend.
IN MEMORIAM — 'Fred Smith, Billionaire Founder of FedEx, Is Dead at 80,' by NYT's Alex Traub: 'Success translated into decades of influence in national politics. Mr. Smith got a personal meeting with President Bill Clinton in the Oval Office. He was a pallbearer at Senator John McCain's funeral. … He was closest to President George W. Bush … Mr. Smith was widely reported to be in the running to serve as Mr. Bush's secretary of defense before withdrawing from consideration. … [T]hanks to the corporate tax cuts Mr. Trump signed into law, which FedEx had lobbied for, the company's tax bill plunged to zero, from $1.5 billion.'
— 'Rod Nordland, 75, Dies; War Reporter Who Also Wrote of His Own Struggle,' by NYT's Alex Traub: 'He was on the scene and frequently running a whole news bureau during the Cambodian-Vietnamese War, the Lebanese Civil War, the Salvadoran Civil War, the First Gulf War, the war in Kosovo, the Iraq War and the War in Afghanistan, among other conflicts.'
SCARY STUFF — Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) had a life-threatening ectopic pregnancy last year, which was made more complicated by a new Florida abortion ban that left doctors scared to give her methotrexate, WSJ's Katy Stech Ferek revealed. Now pregnant again, Cammack doesn't blame the abortion ban — she says it was the left's fault for scaring medical staff. She emphasizes that 'I would stand with any woman — Republican or Democrat — and fight for them to be able to get care in a situation where they are experiencing a miscarriage and an ectopic.'
SCENE SETTER — On Palm Beach, a Trump-fueled 'noisy influx of young Republican partyers, favor-seekers and pols … have altered the delicate social ecosystem of one of the richest enclaves in the world,' NYT's David Segal reports from Florida.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Andrew Friedman is joining Semafor as general manager and head of public affairs, leading D.C.-based commercial operations. He previously was on Google's U.S. elections team and is a POLITICO alum.
WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Gene Hamilton has rejoined America First Legal as president. He most recently was deputy White House counsel.
TRANSITIONS — Corey Husak is now director of tax policy at the Center for American Progress. He most recently was tax economist at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, and is a Bob Casey alum. … Clarissa Rojas is now doing policy comms for Pinterest. She previously was deputy comms director and national press secretary for Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) and the House Democratic Caucus. …
… Eliza Ramirez is now national security adviser to Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). She previously was acting deputy assistant USAID administrator for legislative affairs in the Biden administration, and is a Josh Gottheimer and Tom Malinowski alum. … Jenny Parker will be chief comms officer at American Promise. She previously was VP of comms at Conservation International. … Audrey LaForest is joining Alliance for Automotive Innovation as director of comms. She most recently was on the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's media relations team.
WEDDINGS — Sierra Kelley-Chung, senior government affairs representative at Apple, and Emanuel Riley, director of multifamily investments at the AFL-CIO Housing Investment Trust, got married Saturday at Dutch Courage in Baltimore. They met at the University of Maryland, College Park, and have been together nine years. Pic
— Rachel Atcheson and Sean McElwee, via NYT: 'Ms. Atcheson, 33, … left the [Eric Adams] administration at the end of 2024 to start a nonprofit, Food Policy Pathways, for which she is executive director. … Mr. McElwee … is the founder of Positive Sum Strategies, a consulting firm that specializes in public opinion, strategic communications and advocacy strategy. … On June 5, the couple was married by Yanfang Chen, an officiant at the Manhattan City Clerk's office. … Two days later, they held a celebration at Tamerlaine Sanctuary & Preserve in Montague, N.J.'
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Justice Clarence Thomas … Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) … special envoy Adam Boehler … White House's Steven Cheung and Kaelan Dorr … WaPo's Philip Bump … Chasten Buttigieg … Steve Stombres … Usha Sahay … Bradley Engle … State's Robert Palladino … Robert Kaplan … Aaron Cutler of Hogan Lovells … Greg Hale … Meta's Amber Moon … J.P. Fielder … Niskanen Center's Louisa Tavlas Atkinson … Atanu Chakravarty … Chris Barnard of the American Conservation Coalition … Emma Whitestone … POLITICO's Daniel Han and Ryan Kohl … former Reps. Baron Hill (D-Ind.), Bob Dold (R-Ill.) and Cresent Hardy (R-Nev.) … Ally Sammarco … AU's Sylvia Burwell … Paul Tewes
Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

USA Today

25 minutes ago

• USA Today

US bombs Iran: Trump's gamble: Nuclear threat ended? Or the start of 'endless war'?

It's Donald Trump's war now. The decision to bomb Iran revealed the conflict between some of the president's fundamental impulses. The highest hope of President Donald Trump's bombing of Iran: A rogue nuclear program that had defied a half-dozen of his predecessors has finally been destroyed. The deepest fear: Just four years after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan ended America's longest war, the United States is now enmeshed in another war in a volatile region, with perilous and uncertain consequences. "Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's No. 1 state sponsor of terror," Trump said in a late-night announcement in the East Room on June 21, interrupting Americans' Saturday night plans with news that B-2 bombers had dropped the world's most powerful conventional bombs on three sites considered crucial to Tehran's nuclear program. "Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace." Watch Trump's address to the nation after US bombed Iranian nuke sites More: US on 'high alert' for Iran retaliation, says nuke program 'obliterated' That's the calculation behind "Operation Midnight Hammer," anyway − that despite its initial bluster, Tehran will be forced to abandon its nuclear program. But Trump acknowledged there were other possibilities. "Remember, there are many targets left," he said, surrounded by a solemn-looking trio of advisers − Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. "If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speech and skill." A war between Trump's fundamental impulses The White House debate over whether to launch the bombers put at odds some of Trump's most fundamental impulses. One is his fervent opposition in all three of his presidential campaigns against "forever wars," including the costly and controversial conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. His "America First" agenda reflects a determination to focus less on places like Ukraine and more on challenges close to home. Though most Republican congressional leaders praised the president for the decision, some people prominent in the MAGA movement did not. "This is not our fight," Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene complained on social media. "Every time America is on the verge of greatness, we get involved in another foreign war." On the other hand, Trump is also famously impatient with problems that have frustrated standard solutions. Witness, for instance, his willingness to press the limits of the law in identifying and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants. The lengthy efforts at negotiation with Iran, like much of diplomacy, seemed unlikely to reach the sort of dramatic and decisive conclusion he favors. The bombing of Iran also reflects his alliance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who argues that Iran's nuclear program poses an existential threat to his country. For the prime minister, achieving his decades-old dream of destroying that program is the stuff of legacy. It's the stuff of Trump's legacy, too − a powerful message for a president who cannot run for the Oval Office again. Netanyahu struck that chord. "Congratulations, President Trump," he said in Tel Aviv. "His leadership today has created a pivot in history that can help lead the Middle East and beyond to a future of prosperity and peace." Congressional leaders notified as planes headed home For better or worse, this will be Trump's war. For one thing, he didn't seek the approval of Congress, which under the Constitution has the right to declare war, though the president has broad authority to order the use of military force. The War Powers Act, passed after President Richard Nixon's secret bombing of Cambodia during the Vietnam War, requires presidents to notify Congress and limits the length of deployments. After the U.S. bombers had left Iranian airspace, the administration immediately notified congressional leaders, Hegseth told reporters at a Pentagon briefing early June 22. Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, said Trump had risked dragging the United States into a long war "without consulting Congress, without a clear strategy, without regard to the consistent conclusions of the intelligence community, and without explaining to the American people what's at stake." Those will be the elements of the debate ahead, in echoes of the Iraq War. How serious was the Iranian nuclear threat? And how will voters weigh the stakes and the cost? In Istanbul, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Trump of having "deceived his own voters" by launching a strike despite his campaign promises. The U.S. administration holds "sole and full responsibility for the consequences of its actions," he said. But he didn't specify whether Iran would retaliate against U.S. forces in the region. Hours after the bunker-buster bombs were dropped, Iran launched a new round of missiles toward Israel. On June 23, the foreign minister plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, an ally but one who has his own war to fight.

The Hill

29 minutes ago

• The Hill

Trump in wake of Iran attack: ‘Everyone, keep oil prices down'

In the wake of the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, President Trump on Monday urged 'everyone' to keep oil prices down. 'EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!' Trump said on Truth Social. Oil is traded on a global market, and the energy produced in not only the U.S. but in players around the world including Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia contribute to the prices that Americans pay at the pump. Prices have spiked in recent days amid escalations between the U.S. and Iran — and gasoline prices were up an average of 8 cents compared to a week ago, according to the American Automobile Association. The $3.22 cent average price was still well below highs in 2022 when the national average was as high as $5 per gallon. Iranian state media reported Sunday that Tehran is considering a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil supply flows, threatening further price increases. Trump also wrote on social media calling on the Department of Energy to drill quickly. 'To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!' he added on Truth Social. The Energy Department is primarily a research and funding agency — and is also tasked with maintaining the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. Unlike many countries, the U.S. does not have a state-run oil company, so the government cannot make the unilateral decision to try to drill. It is up to private companies whether they want to produce oil in the U.S., though some government agencies such as the Interior Department can try to make it more attractive to drill on public lands. Presidents have relatively little influence on oil and gasoline prices generally. —Alex Gangitano contributed.

Fox News

29 minutes ago

• Fox News

US service members, diplomats most at risk for physical attack from Iran, expert warns

All times eastern FOX News Radio Live Channel Coverage WATCH LIVE: Trump to huddle with top brass after hammering Iran's nuclear sites