Hedging Against Escalation in the Middle East

If you're a more active investor, how can you shield your portfolio against a widening conflict?

Welcome to the award-winning Money Distilled newsletter. I'm John Stepek. Every week day I look at the biggest stories in markets and economics, and explain what it all means for your money.
On Friday, I put out my usual 'don't panic' message and discussed why you shouldn't let geopolitical events derail your financial plans. You don't have a crystal ball, you can't control events, and the only close-to-certain thing in life is that 'stuff happens.'

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Octa's oil outlook: Middle East tensions threaten global supply

KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 21 June 2025 - Crude oil, which is arguably the world's most important commodity, is on everybody's mind right now. The flared up conflict in the Middle East is increasing risks of a major oil supply shock, potentially pushing the price of 'black gold' into the stratosphere and completely derailing the global economy. In this article, Octa, a global retail broker, shares its expert opinion on the unfolding situation and outlines possible scenarios for the global oil market. Octa Broker As it often happens, the market started to price in the possibility of a new conflict in the Middle East well in advance. On 11 June, oil prices rose more than 4% after reports surfaced that the U.S. was preparing to evacuate its Iraqi embassy due to heightened security concerns in the region. Two days later, Israel and Iran exchanged airstrikes, pushing both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the world's two major oil benchmarks, to five-month highs as investors anticipated potential supply disruptions from an open conflict. To this day, the conflict continues without resolution and oil prices remain elevated even as there are some telltale signs that the parties may be willing to negotiate. 'This burgeoning unrest introduces an unprecedented degree of volatility, significantly amplifying the specter of a catastrophic oil supply shock', argues Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, adding that the conflict between Israel and Iran 'carries ominous potential to propel crude prices to unprecedented levels, thereby unleashing a cascade of detrimental effects that could, in the most dire of scenarios, cause a major global economic crisis'. Indeed, the Middle East in general and Iran in particular play a pivotal role in global energy markets. A substantial portion of the world's crude oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) is produced and exported in this region. Iran itself, despite the existing sanctions on exports, remains an important supplier of oil—notably, for China. Furthermore, a vast number of ships carrying crude oil and LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow yet vital chokepoint that Iran has repeatedly threatened to close. Should Iran act on this threat and block the strait, the repercussions would be quite severe, likely pushing global crude oil prices well above $100 per barrel, or even higher, due to the significant disruption of supply. Technically, if we look at a broader, long-term picture, WTI crude oil seems to be moving sideways with a minor bearish tilt. On a daily chart (see below), the price still has not escaped from the bearish parallel channel. However, due to the latest geopolitical news, the price has managed to rise above the 200-day moving average (MA) and seems poised to break above the critically important 77.60-78.00 area. 'Breaching the $80 handle should not be difficult if the current situation deteriorates sharply', says Kar Yong Ang. 'Continuing destruction of oil infrastructure in Iran, potential U.S. involvement in the war, countries' unwillingness to negotiate and, above all else, Iran's attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz, all of this will have a bullish impact on prices'. Indeed, a break above 80 level, would open the way towards 83.40, 85.20, 87.30, and 90.00 area. Alternatively, in case the hostilities moderate somewhat, other countries—particularly the U.S.—refrain from directly participating in the conflict, and both Israel and Iran express willingness to negotiate, bearish sentiment will immediately kick in. 'I think WTI oil may lose as much as 5 dollars per barrel in the blink of an eye should we see some progress in nuclear negotiations between Europeans and Iranians, which are due to commence in Geneva this Friday', concludes Kar Yong Ang. In this scenario, a break below 71.50 level would allow bears to target 67.80, 64.80 and 61.70. Overall, WTI crude price is now stuck in a broad range between $70 and $80. The move above and below these two levels will essentially indicate if the situation in the region is getting worse or is getting better. The chart below shows potential bullish and bearish targets, marked in green and red, respectively. NYMEX light sweet crude oil (WTI) daily chartSource: TradingView, Octa analysis and calculations ___ Disclaimer: This press release does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences. Hashtag: #Octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa

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Why It Might Not Make Sense To Buy Cancom SE (ETR:COK) For Its Upcoming Dividend

Cancom SE (ETR:COK) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next three days. The ex-dividend date generally occurs two days before the record date, which is the day on which shareholders need to be on the company's books in order to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important as the process of settlement involves at least two full business days. So if you miss that date, you would not show up on the company's books on the record date. Accordingly, Cancom investors that purchase the stock on or after the 25th of June will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 27th of June. The company's next dividend payment will be €1.00 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of €1.00 to shareholders. Calculating the last year's worth of payments shows that Cancom has a trailing yield of 3.6% on the current share price of €27.90. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. As a result, readers should always check whether Cancom has been able to grow its dividends, or if the dividend might be cut. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. Dividends are typically paid out of company income, so if a company pays out more than it earned, its dividend is usually at a higher risk of being cut. Cancom distributed an unsustainably high 124% of its profit as dividends to shareholders last year. Without extenuating circumstances, we'd consider the dividend at risk of a cut. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. Thankfully its dividend payments took up just 29% of the free cash flow it generated, which is a comfortable payout ratio. It's disappointing to see that the dividend was not covered by profits, but cash is more important from a dividend sustainability perspective, and Cancom fortunately did generate enough cash to fund its dividend. If executives were to continue paying more in dividends than the company reported in profits, we'd view this as a warning sign. Extraordinarily few companies are capable of persistently paying a dividend that is greater than their profits. See our latest analysis for Cancom Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends. Businesses with shrinking earnings are tricky from a dividend perspective. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. That's why it's not ideal to see Cancom's earnings per share have been shrinking at 3.2% a year over the previous five years. Another key way to measure a company's dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. Cancom has delivered 15% dividend growth per year on average over the past 10 years. That's intriguing, but the combination of growing dividends despite declining earnings can typically only be achieved by paying out a larger percentage of profits. Cancom is already paying out 124% of its profits, and with shrinking earnings we think it's unlikely that this dividend will grow quickly in the future. From a dividend perspective, should investors buy or avoid Cancom? It's not a great combination to see a company with earnings in decline and paying out 124% of its profits, which could imply the dividend may be at risk of being cut in the future. Yet cashflow was much stronger, which makes us wonder if there are some large timing issues in Cancom's cash flows, or perhaps the company has written down some assets aggressively, reducing its income. Overall it doesn't look like the most suitable dividend stock for a long-term buy and hold investor. Having said that, if you're looking at this stock without much concern for the dividend, you should still be familiar of the risks involved with Cancom. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 2 warning signs with Cancom and understanding them should be part of your investment process. 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We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.