The next ASX mining takeover targets
M&A has emerged as one of the key mining investment themes of 2025
Billions are being splurged by cashed up majors on undervalued small and mid caps
We ask five experts which ASX companies could become takeover targets next
No theme has shouted louder in the junior and mid-tier mining space this year than M&A.
With majors cashed to the gills and looking to both grow and upgrade their portfolios, and the share prices of junior miners trading at big discounts to the values of their assets, there's no time like the present to get a deal done.
The latest non-orchestral manoeuvres in the dark (deals tend to be negotiated after hours under the cover of night by shadowy advisors and lawyers) have included the $1.6bn takeover of MAC Copper (ASX:MAC) proposed by South Africa's Harmony Gold, Dundee Precious Metals' US$1.25bn splurge on Vares silver mine owner Adriatic Metals (ASX:ADT) and the $185m deal for Arizona copper stock New World Resources (ASX:NWC) from London-listed Central Asia Metals.
It's shares are now in a halt above the 5c offer price with the company paused for a proposed increase in the scheme consideration (ie more dosh for investors) as PE Kinterra Capital, owner of the shuttered Pumpkin Hollow copper mine in nearby Nevada, emerged as a near 12% shareholder of NWC.
Intrigue, subterfuge and, most importantly, gains are all on the menu for ASX investors as larger international players and cashed up gold and copper producers look to pick up new projects.
The question is not whether there will be more takeover activity. The question is, in the immortal words of Bill Goldberg, WHO'S NEXT?!
We won't deign to suggest we have the keys to the castle here. But we have tapped our extensive list of experts, with analysts and fund managers giving us their tips for who may be the next corporate prey.
David Franklyn – Argonaut Funds Management
Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS)
A large scale efficient spodumene producer with plenty of cash. If Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) are committed to becoming a major player in the lithium market then PLS is the logical target.
FireFly Metals (ASX:FFM)
A standout Canadian copper development opportunity with a growing resource base and good grades.
NexGen Energy (ASX:NXG)
Nuclear power is gaining increasing momentum globally as a carbon free producer of base load power. If you want to be a major player in the Industry then NXG is the logical acquisition.
The Argonaut Natural Resources Fund owns FireFly Metals and NexGen Energy.
Andy Clayton – Precision Funds Management
NexGen Energy (ASX:NXG)
This is a genuine tier-1 asset (high grade, low cost, long life) in a tier-1 jurisdiction/country (Canada). The Rook I feasibility study showed a project capable of producing up to 30Mlb per year at a cash operating cost of US$10/lb.
The economics are driven by its ultra high grade, with a reserve of 4.5Mt at 2.37% U3O8 for 239Mlb of U3O8. At a uranium price of US$95/lb, the annual after-tax free cash flow from the project in years 1-5 is US$1.47bn per annum. An NPV8 is estimated at US$4.7bn with an IRR of 45% and capital payback of approximately one year. These are outstanding economics.
Once permitting is completed – expected in the next 12-18 months – we believe there is a good chance for corporate activity.
Toubani Resources (ASX:TRE)
Toubani has an excellent oxide gold deposit in Mali which has potential to produce +150,000ozpa at a low AISC of US$1175/oz for +10yrs. The capital is a modest US$216m and at a US$3000oz gold price a post-tax NPV8 is estimated at US$951m (A$1.46bn) and an IRR of 79%.
This compares to TRE's current market capitalisation of a meagre $70m. A recent strategic funding deal to raise $29m which includes a $15.2m placement to an A2MP Investments DMCC, an African focussed investment vehicle owned by Eagle Eye Asset Management sees TRE well funded for the medium term.
A2MP and TRE also executed a debt commitment letter for a minimum of US$160m. TRE trades at a fraction of its peer group due to the Malian discount currently being applied (resulting from changes to Mali's mining tax system and recent disputes with western gold miners operating in the country). We believe that as political stability and sentiment returns then TRE is a potential takeover candidate.
Encounter Resources (ASX:ENR)
Encounter has the largest land holding in the West Arunta region, which over the past three years has seen significant exploration success from its neighbour WA1 Resources (ASX:WA1), which outlined a large, high grade niobium deposit.
Successful drilling by ENR in the last field season culminated in a maiden resource of 19.2Mt at 1.74% Nb2O5 from three separate deposits. This resource is expected to grow as further extensional drilling is done in the current field season. WA1 Resources has a market capitalisation of ~$900m – almost 8x that of ENR at $120m – and whilst it's further ahead in terms of development, we ultimately believe there will only be one key player in this area. Whether that is WA1 Resources or another corporate only time will tell, but logic would suggest there is likely to be only one ferroniobium plant build in this remote area.
Guy Le Page – RM Capital
Meteoric Resources (ASX:MEI) and/or Viridis Mining and Minerals (ASX:VMM)
There is increasing demand for strategic rare earth projects to supply NdPr and Dy/Tb outside of China, driven by national interests, particularly in Western countries seeking supply chain security.
Recent reports indicate that Lynas (ASX:LYC) is showing growing interest in Brazil for potential rare earth assets, likely aiming to secure supply and diversify geographically. Both Meteoric and Viridis possess ionic clay rare earth projects in Brazil with substantial resources and well-developed flowsheets. Although current financial metrics for these projects are not favourable at prevailing NdPr prices, the global push for secure supply could elevate their strategic value. Their proximity to the US market may also attract interest for potential takeovers, especially as Lynas advances its US operations with backing and funding from American entities.
Lynas has been actively expanding its global supply chain, exemplified by its recent partnership with Menteri Besar in Malaysia. This initiative aims to leverage local processing infrastructure and diversify supply sources, further supporting Lynas' interest in ionic clay REE projects.
Such moves suggest Lynas may consider acquiring strategically located assets like Meteoric and Viridis to strengthen its position in the global rare earth industry.
Tesoro Gold (ASX:TSO)
Tesoro owns 100% of the 1.5 Moz El Zorro Gold Project (Ternera deposit), covering 570km2 of highly prospective geology in Chile's Atacama region, approximately 800km north of Santiago. The project benefits from its strategic location near roads, power lines and an airport, and is situated 190km southwest of Gold Fields' (NYSE: GFI) high-grade open-pit gold and silver mine, Salares Norte.
El Zorro is Chile's first discovered intrusive-related gold system, with a proven record of a low discovery cost of US$14/oz to date. A scoping study completed in 2023 estimates a 1.3Moz mineral resource within a US$1800/oz pit shell. The study projects an NPV of US$210 million, based on a 2.4Mtpa throughput over an initial 8-year mine life, with an upfront capital expenditure of US$132m. This scoping study represents a preliminary 'starter' pit, and there is considerable upside potential, as the Ternera deposit remains open in all directions and district-scale exploration targets present additional opportunities for resource growth.
Gold Fields owns 17.1% of Tesoro and has been providing ongoing technical support for Tesoro's regional exploration efforts.
Astral Resources (ASX:AAR)
A noteworthy takeover target in the gold space considering their open pit resource of 1.76Moz located 70km of Kalgoorlie. PFS is due late July.
Paul Howard – Canaccord Genuity
Given 25% of my coverage list was acquired last financial year and two of my covered stocks in ADT and NWC are currently under the microscope, this is a question I'm all too familiar with! (Ed's note: For context, Howard normally has 16-20 stocks under coverage)
The mining sector typically expands and contracts over time in terms of number of participants. We had record IPOs post-Covid but now we're in a period of consolidation; the sector is getting smaller as the number of M&A deals increase.
Although counter cyclical M&A deals make most sense, I see most upcoming M&A happening in the precious metals space, signalling that we are still far from the top. On the counter cyclical view, I wouldn't write off something happening in the nickel space with the likes of Centaurus Metals (ASX:CTM) (large nickel sulphide project in Brazil, Jaguar) and see opportunities for companies with copper offerings given the notion of decarbonisation and energy transition (Firefly, Cygnus Metals (ASX:CY5) or even Caravel Minerals (ASX:CVV)).
But it's in precious metals where I see the most likely deals. Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) could go to an established producer in the near term; Antipa Minerals (ASX:AZY) could bolt on to Greatland Gold, continuing its Paterson Province consolidation moves; and the very large Rogozna project, owned by Strickland Metals (ASX:STK) in Serbia surely appeals to a major given the scale that could grow to 10Moz AuEq before long (Ed: Zijin is a large player in the geographical region).
In the silver space, Andean Silver's (ASX:ASL) high grade and existing infrastructure offers appeal against a backdrop of global silver M&A deals (PASS-NYSE and MAG-TSX; DPM-TSX and ADT-ASX; AG-TSX and GATO-TSX).
At the smaller end of town, companies like Astral Resources, Caprice Resources (ASX:CRS) and Great Boulder Resources (ASX:GBR) offer potentially accretive ounces to their neighbours, in our view.
In West Africa, where many a M&A deal has taken place in recent years, we flag Predictive Discovery (ASX:PDI) and Turaco Gold (ASX:TCG) as having severe M&A appeal and wouldn't write off the prospect of seeing more strategic investments in smaller explorers such as Many Peaks Minerals (ASX:MPK) or Asara Resources (ASX:AS1). In fact, the whole global junior and emerging space is probably open to further strategic investments rather than pure takeover. We've seen Lundin, Montage and Zijin take this approach recently and to good effect.
Hedley Widdup – Lion Selection Group
Antipa Minerals (ASX:AZY)
Given the amount of airtime this one has got I risk being Captain Obvious. The summary is that Greatland have done a wonderful job of outlining their plan to rejuvenate Telfer, which will benefit immensely from additional ore sources.
Telfer is a big process plant, so anything that can be brought in probably needs to deliver volume as well. Antipa's Minyari contains a lot of its inventory in a single footprint, so offers up what appears to be both volume and compatibility.
With Greatland set to list on ASX and suddenly become a big new domestically listed and focused gold miner, at a capitalisation that will likely see it gain index inclusion rapidly, you would expect them to have strong paper. I have to declare, Lion is a shareholder in Antipa.
Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL)
This is also a name that has had chins wagging all over the place, and I think surrounds a notion that the market had a level of tolerance for commissioning issues, but Bellevue has taken too long and it's beginning to look like the ability to deliver large tonnage from a narrow vein underground at high grade is more challenging than hoped.
The sport here appears to be in who the buyer might be, almost as if the chattering classes have decided a change of control is assured. Catalyst Metals (ASX:CYL) has not been concealing growth interest, although hasn't engaged in company-scale growth M&A since two deals to reunite the Plutonic field – their ambition would appear to be commensurate with a Bellevue sized target.
Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) has been fingered for acquisitive interest and is probably seen as one of the most motivated project acquirers in the gold space aside of strategic neighbour consolidation.
And I have wondered for a while if it is foolish to rule out Develop Global (ASX:DVP) – who spectacularly ruled out gold on the sidelines of Diggers and Dealers several years back ('gold isn't green, I'm sorry but its not') and is hitting its straps at its own project in NSW. My suspicion arises from (former Northern Star boss and now Develop MD) Bill Beament's personal history of buying projects he had previously operated at as a contractor.
What would surprise us?
At the moment the most deal speculation I read is around gold miners who have been piling in cash, buying up undeveloped growth options cheaply or bigger sized strategic deals like BHP for Anglo, Rio for Glencore etc. Who else is well funded, and what could they be looking at?
With the competition between Trump and China leading to a renewed focus on rare earths and antimony, I think M&A interest may be relevant where deposits have either grade or scale or both, where they are located in safe jurisdictions and offtake is available. And to be clear, these are a few examples of a larger population, that might suddenly begin to look important as geopolitics changes.
In rare earths, Critica (ASX:CRI) – resource stage which might make it a bit early for strategic corporates but it's very, very big, high grade and strongly located in WA's Gascoyne region (Lion owns some Critica).
In antimony, Warriedar Resources (ASX:WA8) – very large antimony resource has emerged rapidly and largely from un-assayed historic holes that were drilled for gold and Southern Cross Gold (ASX:SX2) – it would be rare, but not unprecedented for a pre-resource situation to become a target. I am sure the high grades of antimony have been recognised.
At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Astral Resources, Antipa Minerals, Caprice Resources and New World Resources are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.
The views, information, or opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the fund managers, brokers8 and analysts and do not represent the views of Stockhead.
Stockhead does not provide, endorse or otherwise assume responsibility for any financial advice contained in this article.
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